Tuesday, May 27, 2008

REGIONALISATION IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION

Here’s news: the world isn’t really flat. Especially if (when) oil is USD 200/bbl.

Is it possible that one day oil price reached the doomsday scenario of USD 200/bbl?

My say is yes. Keep on consuming energy and resources like you have no care in this world- and what you might think highly unlikely could suddenly come into being. Wasn’t it like that a few months ago? Oil price was climbing from 50-ish to 80-ish dollar per barrel and we laughed when somebody predicted that it would soon hit 100. No way. The world as we knew it wouldn’t be able to bear it.

It turned out that we underestimated The World. Oil price today is about USD 120/bbl (and climbing) and life goes on. Things get harder, yes, but life always goes on in an unstoppable power that’s both fascinating and terrifying.

And because globalisation speeds up the pace of everyone’s lives, we grow up knowing that energy is as essential as water and oxygen, and as addictive as dope and TV series. We cannot sacrifice the consummation of energy to ease our boredom (don’t we play PC games, watch movies, fly around the globe to escape this many-faced monster?) and would rather come to terms with paying bigger bills for it. Given this looming recession in US and how the rest of the world is responding the issue, I believe that we will live to see the day when a barrel of oil is tagged for USD 200. And it’s not doomsday yet.

The only thing that stays constant is change, or so they said. USD 200/bbl oil price will trigger a seriatim of inevitable changes, I guess. I’m not underestimating The World (I’ve learnt not to!)- but even its languorous flexibility has limits. And globalisation, who gave birth to the excessive use of energy, will be among the firsts to be swallowed by its blackhole.

Transportation cost will soar, that’s for sure. Rather than traveling to UK, I’d be forced to tighten my budget for Bali or Phuket. Instead of selling Indonesian goods to US, we’d eye Japan or Korean market- shorter distance means more profit. Rather than take a car (even the tiny hybrid one), we’d take a petrol-free bike ride.

But you can’t go too far by a bike.

That’s the essence of this whole oil price hike: we’ll find our world grow smaller. Not in the sense that The World can be navigated on the palm of our hands (virtually & physically) as globalisation claimed—but that our roaming capability shrinks.

Regionalisation will be the new globalisation—if not already is!

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posted by eloque @ 7:17 AM What Say You?: 1