2026 Midterm Elections
Will 2026 shift the balance of power in Washington?
Democrats need to net three seats to regain the House majority. Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to win the Senate majority, including two in states that President Donald Trump won by more than 10 percentage points in 2024.
The signs for El-Sayed in Detroit — and the lack of them — are setting off alarm bells
Current Senate
Two Democrats
Two Republicans
One each
Senate Races to Watch
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Alaska
Toss UpCurrent: Dan Sullivan (R)
Candidate Party Dan Sullivan R Mary Peltola D Democrats have high hopes that ex-Rep. Mary Peltola can oust GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in a race key to recapturing the Senate majority. Alaska uses ranked choice voting in statewide contests.
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Michigan
Toss UpCurrent: Gary Peters (D)
Candidate Party Abdul El-Sayed D Mike Rogers R This open Senate seat currently held by a Democrat is a must-win for the party as it seeks to secure the upper chamber majority. Abdul El-Sayed won a bruising Democratic primary and is competing against former Rep. Mike Rogers.
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Maine
Toss UpCurrent: Susan Collins (R)
Candidate Party Susan Collins R Troy Jackson D GOP Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth Senate term in a year looking good for Democrats. But she is a Maine political veteran, and her foe shifted when oysterman Graham Platner left the race after his nomination and was replaced by Democrat Troy Jackson.
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Ohio
Toss UpCurrent: Jon Husted (R)
Candidate Party Jon Husted R Sherrod Brown D Republicans are on the defensive in the Buckeye State, where GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who replaced Vice President JD Vance, is up for re-election. Democrats found a strong recruit in former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who was running even with Husted in the polls before Election Day.
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Texas
Toss UpCurrent: John Cornyn (R)
Candidate Party Ken Paxton R James Talarico D Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the GOP nomination here with the help of Trump, whose financial operation has poured millions of dollars into electing him. But Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has proven an able foe and has a chance of turning a Texas Senate seat blue, if pre-election polls are accurate.
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Georgia
Lean DCurrent: Jon Ossoff (D)
Candidate Party Jon Ossoff D Mike Collins R Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seen as favored in this purple state after running a strong campaign. He faces GOP Rep. Mike Collins, a staunch Trump ally who falsely has said the president won the 2020 election in Georgia.
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Iowa
Lean RCurrent: Joni Ernst (R)
Candidate Party Ashley Hinson R Josh Turek D Democrats have high hopes of flipping the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. Their candidate is state Rep. Josh Turek, who has pitched himself as a moderate. He is up against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has staked out some positions mildly critical of Trump.
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New Hampshire
Lean DCurrent: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Candidate Party Chris Pappas D John E. Sununu R Democrats have the edge in New Hampshire, but Republicans have recruited a strong candidate in former Sen. John E. Sununu. He is running against Democratic Rep. Mike Pappas for the seat of outgoing Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
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North Carolina
Lean DCurrent: Thom Tillis (R)
Candidate Party Michael Whatley R Roy Cooper D Democrats have gained the upper hand in this purple state after recruiting Roy Cooper, the former governor, as their nominee. Former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley has Trump’s endorsement but less traction.
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Minnesota
Lean DCurrent: Tina Smith (D)
Candidate Party Peggy Flanagan D Michele Tafoya R Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive who beat a centrist lawmaker during the primary, is running against former NFL reporter and GOP nominee Michele Tafoya. Democrats have the edge in this state.
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Florida
Likely RCurrent: Ashley Moody (R)
Candidate Party Ashley Moody R Angie Nixon D GOP Sen. Ashley Moody will face voters for the first time since being appointed to fill the remainder of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term. Florida has trended red in recent years; her foe is state Sen. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
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Kansas
Lean RCurrent: Roger Marshall (R)
Candidate Party Roger Marshall R Adam Hamilton D The race for Senate between Sen. Roger Marshall, the Republican, and Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor and first-time candidate.
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Nebraska
Likely RCurrent: Pete Ricketts (R)
Candidate Party Pete Ricketts* R Dan Osborn I Independent Dan Osborne is the chief competitor to GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, the former governor. The Democratic candidate dropped out after winning the nomination. Osborne faces an uphill battle in this red state.
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South Carolina
Likely RCurrent: D. Graham Nordone (R)
Candidate Party Darline Graham Nordone* R Annie Andrews D GOP Sen. Darline Graham is trying to replace her late brother for a full term in the Senate, and has been helped by money and campaigning by President Donald Trump.
Current House
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Open
House Races to Watch
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Arizona 1
Toss UpCurrent: David Schweikert (R)
Candidate Party Amish Shah D Jay Feely R This suburban Phoenix seat became a Democratic target after GOP Rep. David Schweikert left it to run for governor. The Democratic nominee from 2024, Amish Shah, is running again, this time against former NFL kicker Jay Feely.
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Arizona 6
Toss UpCurrent: Juan Ciscomani (R)
Candidate Party Juan Ciscomani R JoAnna Mendoza D Two-term GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani is a top Democratic target. He’s facing JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran who has criticized the Iran war as “reckless” and never-ending.
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Colorado 8
Toss UpCurrent: Gabe Evans (R)
Candidate Party Gabe Evans R Manny Rutinel D Rep. Gabe Evans is one of the most endangered Republicans in the country and faces Democrat Manny Rutinel in this suburban Denver seat.
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Florida 25
Toss UpCurrent: Jared Moskowitz (D)
Candidate Party Jared Moskowitz D Scott Singer R Rep. Jared Moskowitz is one of the most endangered Democrats in the country after midcycle GOP redistricting. He faces ex-Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, the GOP nominee, in this southeast Florida seat.
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Florida 14
Toss UpCurrent: Kathy Castor (D)
Candidate Party Kathy Castor D Mike Beltran R Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor is defending a Tampa-based seat made more Republican during midcycle redistricting. Her GOP opponent is former state Rep. Mike Beltran.
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Iowa 1
Toss UpCurrent: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Candidate Party Mariannette Miller-Meeks R Christina Bohannan D Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks has found ways to keep winning congressional races. She faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, who lost to the incumbent by around 800 votes in 2024.
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Iowa 3
Toss UpCurrent: Zach Nunn (R)
Candidate Party Zach Nunn R Sarah Trone Garriott D GOP Rep. Zach Nunn is a major target for Democrats as he tries to be both a Trump ally and a pragmatist appealing to independents. State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott is the Democratic nominee in a seat that has swung both ways in presidential contests.
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Michigan 7
Toss UpCurrent: Tom Barrett (R)
Candidate Party Tom Barrett R William Lawrence D GOP Rep. Tom Barrett is a top Democratic target in this central Michigan district. His opponent is progressive William Lawrence, who won a contested Democratic primary and has made some controversial remarks about the party’s leadership.
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Michigan 10
Toss UpCurrent: John James (R)
Candidate Party Mike Bouchard Jr. R Christina Hines D Republican Rep. John James’ gubernatorial bid opened up this seat in swingy Macomb County. Democrats are running a former county prosecutor against a Republican who is the son of the Oakland County sheriff.
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New York 17
Toss UpCurrent: Michael Lawler (R)
Candidate Party Michael Lawler R Cait Conley D Democrats’ best New York House pickup opportunity is the seat held by GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in the Hudson Valley. It’s one of three districts nationally that in 2024 sent a Republican to the House and picked the Democrat for president. Military veteran Cait Conley is the Democratic nominee.
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North Carolina 11
Toss UpCurrent: Chuck Edwards (R)
Candidate Party Jennifer Balkcom R Jamie Ager D State Rep. Jennifer Balkcom replaced Rep. Chuck Edwards as the GOP nominee in August after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure for inappropriate conduct toward young women in his office. She is favored in a district Trump won in 2024 against farmer Jamie Ager.
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Ohio 7
Toss UpCurrent: Max Miller (R)
Candidate Party Max Miller R Brian Poindexter D GOP Rep. Max Miller, a former Trump aide, refused to exit the race under pressure after allegations that he abused his wife and young daughter began to consume the campaign. Ironworker Brian Poindexter is trying to beat him.
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Ohio 9
Toss UpCurrent: Marcy Kaptur (D)
Candidate Party Marcy Kaptur D Derek Merrin R Republican Derek Merrin — a former state representative who lost to Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur by less than a point under the old lines of the district back in 2024 — won the GOP nomination for a general election rematch. It’s considered a top GOP target.
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Pennsylvania 7
Toss UpCurrent: Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Candidate Party Ryan Mackenzie R Bob Brooks D Democrats are optimistic about defeating GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in this Lehigh Valley-based seat. Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter, was touted by the state’s moderate Gov. Josh Shapiro as well as progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders.
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Pennsylvania 8
Toss UpCurrent: Rob Bresnahan (R)
Candidate Party Rob Bresnahan R Paige Cognetti D Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan is running for a second term in a seat Trump narrowly won in 2024.The Democratic nominee is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
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Pennsylvania 10
Toss UpCurrent: Scott Perry (R)
Candidate Party Scott Perry R Janelle Stelson D GOP Rep. Scott Perry is facing a rematch from 2024 Democratic foe Janelle Stelson. He draws attention in a district Trump won because the House Jan. 6 report described him as a key ally in attempting to overturn the 2020 election results.
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Texas 15
Toss UpCurrent: Monica De La Cruz (R)
Candidate Party Monica De La Cruz R Bobby Pulido D Trump won this border seat by double digits in 2024. But Latino voters have since soured on him, according to polling, and Tejano musician Bobby Pulido has made the race competitive for Democrats.
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Texas 34
Toss UpCurrent: Vicente Gonzalez (D)
Candidate Party Vicente Gonzalez D Eric Flores R In a border district redrawn by the Texas GOP, incumbent Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is being challenged by Republican Eric Flores, a former assistant U.S. attorney and Army veteran.
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Virginia 1
Toss UpCurrent: Rob Wittman (R)
Candidate Party Rob Wittman R Shannon Taylor D Henrico County attorney Shannon Taylor is challenging GOP Rep. Rob Wittman in this suburban Richmond seat that went for Trump in the last presidential contests.
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Washington 3
Toss UpCurrent: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Candidate Party Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D John Braun R Democratic Rep. Marie
Gluesenkamp Perez represents a southwestern district that is coveted by the GOP. But she has a moderate track record that may be difficult for state Sen. John Braun to topple in what looks like a good Democratic year. -
Wisconsin 3
Toss UpCurrent: Derrick Van Orden (R)
Candidate Party Derrick Van Orden R Rebecca Cooke D Democrats are eager to win back this GOP-held seat represented by Rep. Derrick Van Orden. The party’s nominee is Rebecca Cooke, endorsed by both progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders and the political arm of the centrist Blue Dog PAC.
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Alabama 2
Lean RCurrent: Shomari Figures (D)
Candidate Party Shomari Figures D Rhett Marques R Alabama Republicans are targeting one of the state’s two Democratic-held districts following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling earlier this year.
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California 13
Lean DCurrent: Adam Gray (D)
Candidate Party Adam Gray R Kevin Lincoln D Democratic Rep. Adam Gray narrowly flipped this Central Valley seat in 2024. The GOP candidate is Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor and a former Marine veteran.
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California 22
Lean DCurrent: David Valadao (R)
Candidate Party David Valadao R Randy Villegas D GOP Rep. David Valadao is one of the last Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. He has withstood previous tough challenges; this year, he’ll face progressive Randy Villegas in a district redrawn to be less favorable to him.
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California 48
Lean DCurrent: Darrell Issa (R)
Candidate Party Marni von Wilpert D Jim Desmond R GOP Rep. Darrell Issa retired after Democrats redrew the San Diego County-based seat to give them an edge. The contenders are now Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor endorsed by Trump, and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert.
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Colorado 5
Lean RCurrent: Jeff Crank (R)
Candidate Party Jeff Crank R Jessica Killin D Republican Rep. Jeff Crank’s Colorado Springs-based seat could get swept up if a blue wave materializes. Democrat Jessica Killin, a military veteran, is waiting to see if she can capitalize.
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Florida 22
Lean RCurrent: Open Seat
Candidate Party Pia Dandiya D Casey Askar R After Republicans redrew her seat, Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel left it to run in friendlier territory. Her now-open South Florida seat is a toss-up that went for Trump in 2024 but Biden in 2020.
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Florida 27
Lean RCurrent: María Elvira Salazar (R)
Candidate Party María Elvira Salazar R Eliott Rodriguez D Rep. Maria Salazar is clearly concerned about her re-election prospects in this heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County district, where she recently aired an ad criticizing Trump for going too far in his immigration crackdown.
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Iowa 2
Lean RCurrent: Ashley Hinson (R)
Candidate Party Joe Mitchell R Lindsay James D This is an open seat after GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson opted to run for the Senate. Democrats nominated state Rep. Lindsay James, an ordained Presbyterian pastor, while the GOP nominee is former state Rep. Joe Mitchell.
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Maine 2
Lean RCurrent: Jared Golden (R)
Candidate Party Matt Dunlap D Paul LePage R This is a prime GOP pickup opportunity after conservative Democratic Rep. Jared Golden announced his retirement. Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage is the GOP nominee and is facing progressive state Auditor Matt Dunlap, who beat a candidate favored by the House Democratic campaign arm in the primary.
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Michigan 4
Lean RCurrent: Bill Huizenga (R)
Candidate Party Bill Huizenga R Sean McCann D GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga is on Democratic target lists in this western Michigan seat, where he’s facing state Sen. Sean McCann, who has worked to tie the incumbent to Trump.
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Missouri 2
Lean RCurrent: Ann Wagner (R)
Candidate Party Ann Wagner R Fred Wellman D GOP Rep. Ann Wagner represents suburban St. Louis and is being targeted by Democrats in a seat that is more dangerous for her with the old Missouri map lines intact after the Supreme Court upheld them.
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North Carolina 1
Lean RCurrent: Don Davis (D)
Candidate Party Don Davis D Laurie Buckhout R Democratic Rep. Don Davis is a moderate who votes against his party often enough that he was able to win his seat in 2024, even as Trump carried his district. But a GOP-led map change makes him even more vulnerable this year.
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Nebraska 2
Lean DCurrent: Don Bacon (R)
Candidate Party Denise Powell R Brinker Harding D Democrats are considered to have the edge in this Omaha-based seat known as the “blue dot” from which GOP Rep. Don Bacon is retiring. Harris and Biden won the seats in the last presidential contests.
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New Hampshire 1
Lean DCurrent: Chris Pappas (D)
Candidate Party Stefany Shaheen D Anthony DiLorenzo R Stefany Shaheen, the outgoing senator’s daughter, emerged from a nine-way primary to nab the Democratic nomination in the seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for Senate. Car dealer Anthony DiLorenzo is the GOP nominee in the more competitive of the state’s two House seats.
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New Jersey 7
Lean DCurrent: Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
Candidate Party Thomas Kean Jr. R Rebecca Bennett D GOP Rep. Tom Kean’s long, initially unexplained absence from the House for health reasons has likely made this district even more competitive. Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, is the Democratic nominee.
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New Mexico 2
Lean DCurrent: Gabe Vasquez (D)
Candidate Party Gabe Vasquez D Greg Cunningham R Republicans sense opportunity in New Mexico, especially in reclaiming this battleground district along the Mexico border, which they lost in the 2022 midterms. The GOP nominee is Marine veteran Greg Cunningham, who worked as a police detective.
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Nevada 3
Lean DCurrent: J. Husted (R)
Candidate Party Susie Lee D Marty O’Donnell R Democrats have been on defense in recent cycles as they work to keep this Las Vegas-based district that went narrowly for Trump in 2024. The Republican nominee this year is Marty O’Donnell, who composed music for the Halo video games.
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New York 3
Lean DCurrent: Tom Suozzi (D)
Candidate Party Tom Suozzi D Michael LiPetri Jr. D Nassau County-based Rep. Tom Suozzi sees himself as a moderate Democrat. He narrowly won in 2024 in a seat that Trump captured.
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New York 4
Lean DCurrent: Laura Gillen (D)
Candidate Party Laura Gillen D Jeanine Driscoll R Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen narrowly won her 2024 race and is again being targeted by Republicans in this Nassau County-based seat that went for Harris in 2024.
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Ohio 1
Lean DCurrent: Greg Landsman (D)
Candidate Party Greg Landsman D Eric Conroy R Ohio’s 1st District, held by Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, was reshaped in 2025 in a bipartisan redistricting effort. That makes it more competitive for Eric Conroy, a U.S. Air Force veteran.
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Pennsylvania 1
Lean RCurrent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Candidate Party Brian Fitzpatrick R Bob Harvie D Democrats’ hardest challenge in Pennsylvania may be finding a way to defeat incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, one of three GOP incumbents in a district won by Harris in 2024.
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Texas 28
Lean DCurrent: Henry Cuellar (D)
Candidate Party Henry Cuellar D Tano Tijerina R Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar has been a tough target for Republicans in this border district. Cuellar was blasted by Trump for failing to switch parties after he and his wife were pardoned on bribery charges.
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Texas 35
Lean RCurrent: Open Seat
Candidate Party Johnny C. Garcia D Carlos De La Cruz R This district in the San Antonio suburbs is one of five Democratic-held seats the Texas GOP redrew to help Republican chances of flipping them.
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Virginia 2
Lean DCurrent: Jen Kiggans (R)
Candidate Party Jen Kiggans R Elaine Luria D Democrats’ best pickup opportunity in the state is likely the Virginia Beach-area district held by GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans. She’s being challenged by former Rep. Elaine Luria.