2009 MLB Trade Deadline Odds

There has been a tremendous amount of trading leading up to the trade deadline, but make no mistake about it, there are plenty of big names left. I handicapped some of the major players odds of being traded and let the speculation begin: who will be traded and where?

Roy Halladay (15-1): Simply put, the Jays have not been "wowed" by any offer for Halladay so far and talks seem to have died out. However, both the Red Sox, Rangers, and the Dodgers have the pieces to acquire Halladay, but I'm doubtful they're willing to part with their best prospects. The deal that everyone thought would happen, now appears unlikely.

Victor Martinez (3-1): After trading Cliff Lee to the Phillies, everyone assumed that Martinez would be the next to go. However, as I went over yesterday, there is not much of a market out there for Martinez right now and there are very few teams that are willing to part with their top prospects. However, the Indians should be pretty motivated to move Martinez, who could be an interesting fit in Boston.

Jarrod Washburn (12-1): Even though I think it would make sense for the Mariners to try and move Washburn, the Mariners don't seem motivated to move Washburn at the moment. The acquisition of Jack Wilson and Ian Snell hints that the Mariners are not completely waving the white flag on 2009, but the Mariners chances of making the playoffs right now are pretty slim.

Orlando Cabrera (2-1): He would make a great fit with the Twins, who have lobbied for the front office to pick him up. Cabrera is a free agent at the end of the season and might be a type A free agent, which could give the A's some incentive to keep him. However, would the Athletics seriously think about offering him arbitration? I doubt it.

Nick Johnson (8-1): The market for Johnson has never developed like many thought it would. However, Johnson is a productive player and a free agent at the end of the season while the Nationals need all the young pieces they can get. It makes sense for the Nationals to deal Johnson.

Scott Rolen (20-1): Too much money owed and no perfect match in sight.

Adrian Gonzalez (25-1): Unless the Red Sox decide to go all in to get him, I don't see a fit for Gonzalez right now. His salary and power make him a very valuable asset for the Padres. It wouldn't surprise me to see him traded in the offseason.

Matt Capps (8-1): Only because the Pirates have traded away almost all of their commodities already...why not trade one more?

Heath Bell (6-1): Considering that the Padres are going nowhere, it would make sense for them to see what they can get for their all-star closer. The asking price on Bell will be high, but I could see a team like the Marlins or Rays making a move to pick up Bell. Stay tuned on this one.

Others who could be on the move: Chad Qualls, Joe Beimel, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Marco Scutaro

David Ortiz On Alex Rodriguez and Steroids

Probably the most telling quote from Ortiz from this past Feburary when he commented on the Alex Rodriguez's admission to using steroids. As we all know, it was discovered today that David Ortiz was on the list of steroid users from 2003.

ESPN.com:

Alex Rodriguez has said he used banned substances between 2001-03, when he was with the Texas Rangers.

Ortiz said that at that time, "I would say it was certainly low, the percentage that wasn't using it. Like he said in the interview [with ESPN], that was what was goingaround the league at the time."

He praised Rodriguez for saying he used banned substances and said that after 2003, "he's been playing clean and he still produced and he's still been the best player in the game. So if I'm a fan and I had to judge the guy, I would put that in the past and move forward."

No one knows how long Ortiz has been clean for, but this is a tough pill for Red Sox fans to swallow. Not just Manny, but Papi too. Who knows if these guys were using during their magical 2004 World Series run. Even though, as the kids say, "they were all doing it", there is no doubt that this leaves a sickening taste in the mouths of Red Sox fans. It will be very difficult for Sox fans to simply move on, especially with Ortiz and the Red Sox struggling at the moment.

The Market For Victor Martinez

After yesterday's trade of Cliff Lee, it's widely assumed around baseball that the Indians are now looking to move Martinez, who is signed through 2010. Martinez is one of the premier catchers in all of baseball and has bounced back from a injury plagued 2008 to hit 15 HR with 67 RBI and 56 runs scored.

Obviously its going to take quite a package to land Martinez. What teams should/could be interested in Cleveland's all star catcher? Let's take a look:

Red Sox: This is where all the hot rumors have been so far. The Red Sox need a quality hitter in the middle of the lineup and Martinez would instantly become one of the best hitters they have. My only question is this: would Martinez catch? Obviously, he's not going to play 1st with Youk and LaRoche there, but will he really supplant Varitek? Is that a smart move even with 'Tek's offensive struggles?

Rays: I would love to see Martinez land here and supplant the struggling Dioner Navarro, but I'm doubtful that this would happen. Martinez would fit in perfectly with this lineup and finally provide Evan Longoria with some much needed protection.

Angels: Complete speculation on my part here. If the Angels don't feel secure with Vladimir Guerrero returning to his top form this season, then Martinez could become an attractive option here. The Angels have been reluctant to trade their top prospects over the years, which makes a match here look even less likely.

The Field: Who else can really make a play for this guy?

The Giants? Nope.

The Mets? I wish.

The Rangers? Doubt it.

Analysis:Unless the Red Sox or another team steps up to the plate, the Indians might have a tough time finding a suitable trade partner for Martinez. Might they be better off waiting until the offseason (when more teams should be interested) to trade Martinez?

Only time will tell.

Why Cliff Lee And The Phillies Are A Great Fit

If you're a Phillies fan, there are plenty of reasons to like the acquisition of Cliff Lee.

1. He's an ace

2. Keep Kyle Drabek and Domenick Brown

3. He's signed through 2010...

4. ...at a reasonable rate

5. Hamels and Lee are a great 1-2 punch

6. The Phillies are now as good as anyone on paper

7. Keep JA Happ

8. Keep Michael Taylor

9. Ben Francisco is a solid right handed bat (even if he's a weak defender)

10. October

But you know why I like it: because Lee does not give up home runs. In 152 innings this season, Lee has only given up 10 home runs and in 223 innings last season, Lee only gave up 12 home runs.

In addition, according to fangraphs, Lee's flyball % this season is a very manageable 35% and his HR/FB rate is only 5.8% this season.

Why are home runs and flyballs so important with Lee? Because the Phillies play in the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark, which is a bandbox second to only the new Yankee Stadium. It's vital that the Phillies have pitchers, who are not prone to the longball because that type of pitcher has a high probability of getting hit hard in Citizens Bank Park.

There is no guarantee that these stats will lead to wins for Lee, but this a great risk for the Phillies and gives them a deep rotation to balance out a strong and balanced offense.