Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s presidential election in the United States makes it imperative for Europe to act decisively, and quickly, in the one region where it has real power – the Western Balkans. The EU has ten weeks – until Trump’s inauguration – to get serious about its geopolitical role.
EU policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been on a failing trajectory for a decade-and-a-half. Now, in cooperation with the US/UK, it is seeking to camouflage failure with appeasement of separatists in Bosnia – lending a geopolitical win to Russia.
In its quest for a quick deliverable in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the European Union is trying to broker a deal that risks entrenching the power of Croat nationalists who are resisting moves to make the country more functional.
The EU is eager to claim that this step means that one of the 14 key conditions from the May 2019 European Commission Avis to achieve candidate status has been met. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from truth.
Despite the escalating bloodshed in Idlib, the EU had made no evident plans to continue funding Syrian refugees in Turkey with the impending expiration of the so-called EU-Turkey statement.
The EU could blow up the Kosovo-Serbia negotiations’ reset. Should Miroslav Lajčák indeed be appointed, the two senior EU diplomats dealing with Kosovo would both come from the small minority of member states that do not recognise Kosovo.
EU migration policy has had a series of symbolic failures in recent years, but now could be the opportunity to set a new course.
