AI对就业的影响与应对

P.S. 目前国内还是很缺AI人才的,希望更多人能真正加入到AI行业,共同促进行业进步,增强我国的AI竞争力。想要系统学习AI知识的朋友可以看看我精心打磨的教程传送门http://blog.csdn.net/jiangjunshow,教程通俗易懂,高中生都能看懂,还有各种段子风趣幽默,从深度学习基础原理到各领域实战应用都有讲解,我22年的AI积累全在里面了。注意,教程仅限真正想入门AI的朋友,否则看看零散的博文就够了。

1.1 先泼盆冷水

很多人以为 AI 抢工作,是这样的:某天早上到公司,工位空了,电脑被收走,保安大哥递上一张纸条——“恭喜,毕业了。”

不是的。

现实是温水煮青蛙。只不过水温上涨的速度,比你家电热水器还快。

2. 说句难听的

我说句难听的,你别不爱听:AI 越强,短期内对岗位的冲击就越严重。

这个观点,我几个月前直播的时候就说过。当时弹幕都在刷"又开始贩卖焦虑了"。

现在好了,焦虑不用贩卖,直接快递上门,还是到付。

2.1 老板们的算盘,打得比计算机还快

原因很简单。

全球经济大环境本来就不怎么样,大家兜里都没几个钢镚。这时候 AI 越来越强,老板们一合计:同样的活,好像真不需要那么多人。

我给大家还原一下老板的心路历程,大概是这样的:

# 老板的裁员决策模型(伪代码)
def 要不要优化(ai能力, 员工产出, 员工工资):
    if ai能力 >= 员工产出 * 0.5:
        return "岗位砍一半,运营不受影响"
    elif ai能力 >= 员工产出 * 0.3:
        return "再等等,AI 还会更强"
    else:
        return "先画饼,稳住军心"

# 运行结果:第一行代码被执行了

你看,很多公司,岗位砍一半,运营和商业一点影响都没有。

话虽然难听,但这就是现实。老板们不是心狠,是数学太好。

3. 本来该是慢动作的

按照经济周期的发展规律,这种事本来应该是缓缓推进的,慢动作,文艺片。

但 AI 的发展和进化速度,直接把文艺片剪成了动作片,还是 8 倍速快进。

3.1 短期冲击有多大?非常大

别问我"短期"是多久。

是半年?一年?两年?没人知道,没人能预测。

谁要是拍着胸脯告诉你一个准确时间,要么他在安慰你,要么他想卖你课,要么他刚被 AI 优化了,神志不清。

4. AI 不是来毁灭的,它只是还没到创造的时候

把时间拉长看,AI 一定会创造新的生产关系、新的工作岗位、新的产出。

只是,现在还没有。你懂我意思吧:未来可期,今天先扛。

4.1 现阶段 AI 在干嘛

现阶段,AI 主要干的是提效的活。

提效是什么意思?就是三个人干的活,现在一个人加一个 AI 就能干完。剩下两个,可以回家种地,或者写提示词教 AI 取代自己。

而且提效是随着 AI 能力提升一路伴随的。AI 每强一分,老板的算盘珠子就多拨两下,咔咔的,比机械键盘还响。

5. 怎么应对?我实话实说

先说句实话:短期内,我也帮不了大家搞定工作问题。我又不是就业局,也不是锦鲤本鲤。

但建议可以给几条。有用的拿去用,没用的就当听个响。

5.1 对个人:沉淀 AI 底层能力

别停留在"会用几个 AI 工具"的表面功夫上。底层能力,才是面向未来的。

说白了:要么你成为会用 AI 的人,要么你成为被 AI 用的人。中间没有缓冲带。

5.2 对个人:做好风险应对

万一真失业了,起码基本生活要有保障。

先把高消费砍一砍。这时候不是装体面的时候,是保命的时候。别问我是怎么知道的,我认识很多人。

5.3 对个人:抛弃你引以为傲的旧经验

这句话最扎心,但我必须说:你过去引以为傲的行业经验和能力,在 AI 时代,可能不是资产,是负债。

别抱着"我干这行二十年"不撒手。时代变了,二十年经验,可能不如二十条提示词好使。

尽量让自己成为多维度全能人才,这是未来 AI 人才的基本要求。多学点,不亏。

5.4 对企业:降本增效,别磨叽

对老板们喊一句:降本增效,是你当下要面对的最大问题。

尽快完成 AI 重塑工作流和业务。别等竞争对手都跑出去二里地了,你还在研究"AI 到底是不是噱头"。

6. 最后,说点掏心窝的

很多人感知不到危机,觉得"哪有那么夸张"。

没关系,不重要。因为这件事,本来就是面向未来的。你感知不到,时间会替你感知。

6.1 这可能就是最好的消息

行业意识觉醒需要时间,企业重塑工作流也需要时间。任何时代,都不可能所有人、所有行业都具备相应的能力。

所以这可能对我们来说,是最好的消息:在这个时间差里,你决定做什么、能做到什么程度,全靠你自己。

机会就在那儿。有人看见了,已经跑起来了;有人没看见,正在刷手机。

以上,个人观点,与诸位分享。不构成就业建议,也不构成投资建议,就是随便聊聊。

P.S. 目前国内还是很缺AI人才的,希望更多人能真正加入到AI行业,共同促进行业进步,增强我国的AI竞争力。想要系统学习AI知识的朋友可以看看我精心打磨的教程 传送门http://blog.csdn.net/jiangjunshow,教程通俗易懂,高中生都能看懂,还有各种段子风趣幽默,从深度学习基础原理到各领域实战应用都有讲解,我22年的AI积累全在里面了。注意,教程仅限真正想入门AI的朋友,否则看看零散的博文就够了。

深度学习工具包Deprecation notice.-----This toolbox is outdated and no longer maintained.There are much better tools available for deep learning than this toolbox, e.g. [Theano](http://deeplearning.net/software/theano/), [torch](http://torch.ch/) or [tensorflow](http://www.tensorflow.org/)I would suggest you use one of the tools mentioned above rather than use this toolbox.Best, Rasmus.DeepLearnToolbox================A Matlab toolbox for Deep Learning.Deep Learning is a new subfield of machine learning that focuses on learning deep hierarchical models of data.It is inspired by the human brain's apparent deep (layered, hierarchical) architecture.A good overview of the theory of Deep Learning theory is[Learning Deep Architectures for AI](http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~bengioy/papers/ftml_book.pdf)For a more informal introduction, see the following videos by Geoffrey Hinton and Andrew Ng.* [The Next Generation of Neural Networks](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyzOUbkUf3M) (Hinton, 2007)* [Recent Developments in Deep Learning](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdIURAu1-aU) (Hinton, 2010)* [Unsupervised Feature Learning and Deep Learning](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmNOAtZIgIk) (Ng, 2011)If you use this toolbox in your research please cite [Prediction as a candidate for learning deep hierarchical models of data](http://www2.imm.dtu.dk/pubdb/views/publication_details.php?id=6284)```@MASTERSTHESIS\{IMM2012-06284, author = "R. B. Palm", title = "Prediction as a candidate for learning deep hierarchical models of data", year = "2012",}```Contact: rasmusbergpalm at gmail dot comDirectories included in the toolbox-----------------------------------`NN/` - A library for Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Networks`CNN/` - A library for Convolutional Neural Networks`DBN/` - A library for Deep Belief Networks`SAE/` - A library for Stacked Auto-Encoders`CAE/` - A library for Convolutional Auto-Encoders`util/` - Utility functions used by the libraries`data/` - Data used by the examples`tests/` - unit tests to verify toolbox is workingFor references on each library check REFS.mdSetup-----1. Download.2. addpath(genpath('DeepLearnToolbox'));Example: Deep Belief Network---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_DBNload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(train_x) / 255;test_x = double(test_x) / 255;train_y = double(train_y);test_y = double(test_y);%% ex1 train a 100 hidden unit RBM and visualize its weightsrand('state',0)dbn.sizes = [100];opts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;opts.momentum = 0;opts.alpha = 1;dbn = dbnsetup(dbn, train_x, opts);dbn = dbntrain(dbn, train_x, opts);figure; visualize(dbn.rbm{1}.W'); % Visualize the RBM weights%% ex2 train a 100-100 hidden unit DBN and use its weights to initialize a NNrand('state',0)%train dbndbn.sizes = [100 100];opts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;opts.momentum = 0;opts.alpha = 1;dbn = dbnsetup(dbn, train_x, opts);dbn = dbntrain(dbn, train_x, opts);%unfold dbn to nnnn = dbnunfoldtonn(dbn, 10);nn.activation_function = 'sigm';%train nnopts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;nn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.10, 'Too big error');```Example: Stacked Auto-Encoders---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_SAEload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(train_x)/255;test_x = double(test_x)/255;train_y = double(train_y);test_y = double(test_y);%% ex1 train a 100 hidden unit SDAE and use it to initialize a FFNN% Setup and train a stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE)rand('state',0)sae = saesetup([784 100]);sae.ae{1}.activation_function = 'sigm';sae.ae{1}.learningRate = 1;sae.ae{1}.inputZeroMaskedFraction = 0.5;opts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;sae = saetrain(sae, train_x, opts);visualize(sae.ae{1}.W{1}(:,2:end)')% Use the SDAE to initialize a FFNNnn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.activation_function = 'sigm';nn.learningRate = 1;nn.W{1} = sae.ae{1}.W{1};% Train the FFNNopts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;nn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.16, 'Too big error');```Example: Convolutional Neural Nets---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_CNNload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(reshape(train_x',28,28,60000))/255;test_x = double(reshape(test_x',28,28,10000))/255;train_y = double(train_y');test_y = double(test_y');%% ex1 Train a 6c-2s-12c-2s Convolutional neural network %will run 1 epoch in about 200 second and get around 11% error. %With 100 epochs you'll get around 1.2% errorrand('state',0)cnn.layers = { struct('type', 'i') %input layer struct('type', 'c', 'outputmaps', 6, 'kernelsize', 5) %convolution layer struct('type', 's', 'scale', 2) %sub sampling layer struct('type', 'c', 'outputmaps', 12, 'kernelsize', 5) %convolution layer struct('type', 's', 'scale', 2) %subsampling layer};cnn = cnnsetup(cnn, train_x, train_y);opts.alpha = 1;opts.batchsize = 50;opts.numepochs = 1;cnn = cnntrain(cnn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = cnntest(cnn, test_x, test_y);%plot mean squared errorfigure; plot(cnn.rL);assert(er<0.12, 'Too big error');```Example: Neural Networks---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_NNload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(train_x) / 255;test_x = double(test_x) / 255;train_y = double(train_y);test_y = double(test_y);% normalize[train_x, mu, sigma] = zscore(train_x);test_x = normalize(test_x, mu, sigma);%% ex1 vanilla neural netrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);opts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samples[nn, L] = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.08, 'Too big error');%% ex2 neural net with L2 weight decayrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.weightPenaltyL2 = 1e-4; % L2 weight decayopts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex3 neural net with dropoutrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.dropoutFraction = 0.5; % Dropout fraction opts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex4 neural net with sigmoid activation functionrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.activation_function = 'sigm'; % Sigmoid activation functionnn.learningRate = 1; % Sigm require a lower learning rateopts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex5 plotting functionalityrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 20 10]);opts.numepochs = 5; % Number of full sweeps through datann.output = 'softmax'; % use softmax outputopts.batchsize = 1000; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesopts.plot = 1; % enable plottingnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex6 neural net with sigmoid activation and plotting of validation and training error% split training data into training and validation datavx = train_x(1:10000,:);tx = train_x(10001:end,:);vy = train_y(1:10000,:);ty = train_y(10001:end,:);rand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 20 10]); nn.output = 'softmax'; % use softmax outputopts.numepochs = 5; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 1000; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesopts.plot = 1; % enable plottingnn = nntrain(nn, tx, ty, opts, vx, vy); % nntrain takes validation set as last two arguments (optionally)[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');```[![Bitdeli Badge](https://d2weczhvl823v0.cloudfront.net/rasmusbergpalm/deeplearntoolbox/trend.png)](https://bitdeli.com/free "Bitdeli Badge")
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