Soriano watch (DEAD)
Dedicated to documenting the drama that is Alfonso Soriano. Until the Nationals move his contract. Or maybe sooner. But, could be later.
2006-11-19
Soriano signs insane deal with Chicago Cubs
It was only a week or so ago that Buster Olney was on XM175 stating how he thought that, with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, all teams would be flush with cash and would be spending lavishly on players. Apparently the Cubs heard him, because those in the know think that this deal exceeds even the richest optimism.
In any case, this concludes the Soriano Watch at this blog. The Washington Nationals will be rebuilding their farm system for years to come and will be focusing on player development in the Caribbean and Japan, as well as domestically. Big-time free agents will not be the order of the day in this regime, particulary if one reads between the lines of what Stan Kasten says when speaking about the future direction of the Nationals. The Nationals will likely be bringing up players through their own system and trading for other young talent as their own players become too costly to keep. Now, I'm not calling him cheap...shrewd, efficient, effective maybe?
Here are the links as of Sunday evening with the news:
MLB.com By Carrie Muskat
Chicago Tribune sports page by Paul Sullivan
Nationals Farm Authority analyzes the trade better than I could ever hope to
Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes up his views
Federal Baseball chimes in with his analysis of Soriano's performance
Sons of Sam Horn (remember him?) on salary inflation in general, based on Soriano's contract
Adios! y vaya con dios!
2006-11-16
Astros offer deals to Soriano
While some say that new Nationals field manager and fellow Dominican Manny Acta could provide an attraction for Soriano to stay in D.C., most believe that those greenbacks will draw Soriano's attention more than anything else. The Nats are not willing to pay big bucks to Soriano when they can do almost as well using other sources of talent. Besides, wasn't it Acta who kept Soriano on the bench during the World Baseball Classic, only to send him up there once and see him strikeout?
The Phillies are considered to have the inside track on Soriano by Buster Olney and other commentators, so we'll just have to see how this one plays out.
2006-11-01
Soriano files for Free Agency
2006.10.31 Soriano outlines contract demands to the Orioles in the neighborhood of $120M/7 years. Laughter can be heard all the way down the BW Parkway to this day.
The Brain Trust believes that, despite Soriano's physical make-up, he will never post the kind of offensive numbers that he did in this season leading up to his free agency. Thus, paying in the future for past performance would be foolish.
On the other hand, Buster Olney reported the other day that he sees MLB "awash in cash" now that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has been signed with little fanfare or strife. Olney cited the increase in the luxury tax limit, among other cash sources, as allowing teams to spend like drunken sailors, thus making previously outrageous money look normal in the coming Hot Stove League.
I firmly believe that we mere mortals cannot know the full story, plus I have not delved into it deeply, so as the stock analysts love to say: we'll just have to see how this one plays out.
2006-10-03
SorianoWrap
Season Wrap Up
Alfonso Soriano finished the season with these numbers, courtesy of the Washington Post:
BA = .277
HR = 46 (career high)
IBB = 67 (career high, amazing!)
OBP = .352 (career high)
SLG = .561 (career high)
So after the sit-out in Spring Training, his first Spring Training game in Jupiter, Florida at which the fans in the LF stands taunted him mightily, his shaky but improving LF defense, and an improbable season in which he found amazing home run power, Alfonso Soriano will most likely not wear a Washington Nationals uniform next season. He is rumored to be asking for more money and a longer contract than the Nats are willing to offer under the stewardship of Stan Kasten.
This should be an interesting Winter around the hot stove league, between Soriano's negotiations and the renewal of the labor agreement between MLB and the player's union which could affect his free agency compensation for the Nats. One thing most commentators agree on is that there is little chance of another work stoppage considering the damage to the sport by the 1994 player's strike.
Farewell Fonzie, we hardly knew ye. By the way, if you take East Capitol Street out of RFK and head north on 295 you shouldn't get lost this time. New York is up the road a piece, you'll find it.
2006-09-30
Bye, bye Alfie!
Back-of-the-envelope math reveals that $39M/3 years = $13M/year. Soriano had been rumored to be looking for $15M/year for a 4-5 year term. The latter figure would figure to be "more money" as reported.
His performance has tailed off in September. Soriano acknowledged that it’s hard for him to concentrate with the team out of contention. “The season is over already,” Soriano said. “So it’s hard to concentrate when you play for nothing.”
Knowledgable fans hold that Soriano's performance this year is unlikely to be repeated, therefore paying him in the future based on his performance this year would be foolhardy.
We wish him well with his future team, just as long as they don't dash the Nationals' playoff hopes in future seasons. :-)
Excerpted from
2006-09-16
¡Alfonso Soriano Joins 40-40 Club!
Nobody who takes so much as a glance at Soriano would suggest that he is using illicit enhancers to bulk up; he is anything but bulky. He is a lean, mean hitting machine, thus casting aside any taint to his accomplishment. I take a certain comfort in this knowledge.
Soriano's offensive record as of the 2nd inning of this game versus Milwaukee:
Games = 147
Steals = 40
Caught stealing = 16 (71.4% success rate)
HR = 45 (24 HR @ RFK)
Strikeouts = 143
Walks = 62
Hits = 173
Doubles = 38
Triples = 2
OBP = .360 (before start of game)
SLG = .585 (before start of game)
After a lazy afternoon, I sauntered in to my desk, turned on my XM PC Radio to the Nats game hosting the Brewers just starting and heard the exciting play by Charlie Slowes in the bottom of the first inning: "Soriano goes, there will be no throw as Rivera can't get the ball out of his glove in time! And Soriano steals his 40th base of the year!" Listen to the call at trackstreamer.com
A nice accomplishment in an otherwise disappointing season for the Nationals.
2006-08-05
Soriano Weighs More Than Wilkerson
The 2006 fall-off is not dramatic, but it is noticeable when considering that the guy's shoulder is hurting. He has missed 19 of the Rangers' 110 games this season.
G AB HR OBP SLG AVG
2006 91 315 15 .310 .429 .225
Career 745 2580 98 .359 .449 .252
(Curiously, MLB.com states "No Major League Stats Available" for Wilk's 2005 season with the Nats.)
Wilkerson showed signs of tailing off last season with the Nationals and has struggled both at the plate and in the field this season with the Texas Rangers. Obviously, something was causing his numbers to decline, and it wasn't pure stinkage.
So with Soriano having won over even the skeptical Nats fans and slated to stick around through the end of the season, and now with Wilkerson's season looking even more bleak, could it be that Jim Bowden was prescient? Or well-informed? Or just lucky?
We report, you deride.
See also:
Dodger Math - "Let’s Take A Moment To Laugh At Jim Bowden"
Note: Brad Wilkerson and other players were traded to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Alfonso Soriano during the Winter of 2005-2006.
2006-07-31
Soriano Stays in D.C.
There was a flurry of trade activity in the last couple days, but aside from Mike Stanton there was nothing else involving the Nationals.
Film at 11.
2006-07-30
Soriano Smiles, Bowden Beguiles
The Player
Soriano's offense speaks for itself. When he came to the Nationals in March, he was widely known as a free-swinger. Whether it was working with Page or simply his desire to maximize his contract in his chance at free agency, he has settled down at the plate [Note 1] and surprised everyone with his home run prowess at supposedly pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium.
Soriano's defense has been steadily improving, and one of his teammates was recently quoted as saying that the only balls that still give him trouble are line drives hit directly to him. He has recently been tearing up the base paths with steals of second and third base, although he has been caught a few times as recently.
The Front Office
While the trade rumors are worth what you paid for them, some find it interesting to follow them. The majority of ESPN and similar jockjaws hope to raise the their stature by promulgating what they think might happen and can be disregarded outright. XM175 interviews the actual movers and shakers and those beat writers who cover them, so the hints and tips gleaned there can be more informative. In any case, this is the weekend immediately prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, so an avalanche of activity is starting. After July 31 up until August 31, players can still be traded, but they must pass through the waiver wire, during which time they could be claimed by other teams.
The Nationals' self-aggrandizing GM Jim Bowden loves being the center of media attention and fancies himself the master trade-maker, so he is likely milking this hoopla over Soriano for all it's worth, seeing as how he is unlikely to come close to anything like this for some time while the team rebuilds. He has been quoted recently as claiming that his phone is "burning up" with all the offers he is receiving for Soriano.
The truth is probably shaded quite a bit from that, although these big deals are said to require a great deal of grunt work, calling many different parties to the trade and getting all the ducks in a row. So while his phone might be close to burning up, it's more likely that he is communicating with his scouts and other Nats operatives in order to determine which prospects and young players to ask for in exchange for Soriano.
The Team
The fact remains that the Nationals are most definitely sellers. They are in a race to the bottom, perhaps in an effort to secure the #1 draft pick. After last night's shelling in Dodger Stadium, their need for pitching, pitching, pitching is acutely shown.
The trade of Carlos Lee from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Texas Rangers takes him off the supply of sluggers, raising Soriano's demand, and thus his price.
The Rumors
Latest rumors are that Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins are "aggressively" pursuing Soriano. Also, since Texas has improved its offensive power through the acquisition of Lee, the Angels and Athletics must now pull the trigger on a trade in order to keep up in the hotly contested AL West race.
| Team | Won | Lost | Win % | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 53 | 49 | .520 | 0 |
| Athletics | 53 | 50 | .515 | 0.5 |
| Rangers | 51 | 52 | .495 | 2.5 |
| Mariners | 49 | 53 | .480 | 4.0 |
Now, assuming that the additional offensive production of Carlos Lee adds a conservative 3-5 games to the Rangers' record and all other things being equal (his RV not available to me), that makes the AL West race very interesting indeed. Bill Stoneman is said to be very conservative with the Angels' purse strings and Billy Beane is well known for his Moneyball approach to extracting maximum value from his acquisitions. Still, with the AL West up for grabs they will likely be sniffing around Soriano if not actively pursuing him, if only to drive up his price for competing AL West teams.
AL Central
| Team | Won | Lost | Win % | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | 69 | 33 | .676 | 0 |
| White Sox | 60 | 41 | .594 | 8.5 |
| Twins | 59 | 42 | .584 | 9.5 |
| Indians | 45 | 56 | .446 | 23.5 |
| Royals | 36 | 66 | .353 | 33.0 |
Detroit has the best record on the planet. With Minnesota 9-1/2 games back it's not clear to see that the addition of Soriano would make the difference for them in a wildcard race among the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox and possibly Athletics. But what do I know?
Who knows what negotiations happen behind the scenes? One thing's for certain, we will know by Tuesday. Til Tuesday!
Note 1 - Capitol Punishment notes that Soriano has been showing signs of returning to flailing at the plate as he did for a time back in May. Exhibit A. Exhibit B.
2006-07-24
Soriano Watch Escalates
Soriano nets interest from the Tigers, Angels, Yankees...no, wait! The White Sox, too! Maybe the Mariners would like to up the ante?
Yes, the Soriano Sweepstakes will be white-hot as July 31 approaches. It is highly likely that the Nationals will make the most of the interest in Soriano to bid teams against each other in an effort to drive up his asking price. If the Nats' Think Tank stays true to its word, we should net some promising prospects and maybe some pitching, pitching, pitching.
Wake me up when the dealing's done.
2006-06-04
Oh how the mighty have arisen
Now that the Washington Nationals baseball club is playing closer to its average, rather than far below it, I thought it appropriate to list the exploits of everybody's sudden favorite player.
Executive Summary
Batting 20-40 points above his career averages and smokin' the ball out of the park, while his shaky defense has been improving. Assigned permanently to left field.
Narrative
According to Nats Nation, Mr. Soriano had recently equaled Nick Johnson in total home runs at RFK (in about 1/4 the number of games there and 1/3 the number of at-bats) since the franchise has played there the past two seasons. As of this typing, NJ has one more homer than Alfie at RFK, but the homers just keep on coming on the road. Today, Soriano went 3-4 with 5 RBI and 2 HR (including a grand slam) for a total of 21 home runs this season. I, for one, never had a doubt! [1] Why move the fences closer at RFK when you can just hit the ball over them?
Even though he is still somewhat shaky in left field, he has improved noticeably. When he does botch a play, he often makes up for it at the plate. He did make one very memorable play by racing back, catching a fly ball, then throwing out Brad Ausmus attempting to retreat back to first base to tag up; apparently nobody in the park expected him to catch that fly ball.
Dirty Details
Quick Splits
per MLB.com
vs. Left: .414 / vs. Right: .277
Home: .319 / Road: .307
Day: .352 / Night: .294
Current Month: .583 (June)
Last 30 Days: .340
per ESPN (BA/OPS)
vs. left: .400 / 1.185
vs. right: .273 / 0.877
home: .319 / 1.122
away: .294 / 0.841
Stats
Last 10 Games
18 hits/43 at-bats = .429 (hot streak, small sample size).
HR=5, RBI=11, BB=3, SO=8, SB=3, CS=2.5 (dislodged ball during tag-out)
At least 1 hit in 9 of his last 10 games.
Season
Offense
BA=.312, OBP=.364, SLG=.628, HR=21, RBI=43, SB=13, CS=7
Defense
POS GP GS INN TC PO A E DP FPCT
LF 55 55 474 112 98 9 5 3 .955
The Requisite Wilkerson Comparison
Leads the Texas Rangers in home runs (11) and runs scored (41).
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
50 179 41 45 7 1 11 27 22 67 2 2 .251 .341 .486 .827 Wilkerson
57 231 43 72 10 0 21 43 18 50 13 7 .312 .364 .628 .992 Soriano
Analysis
You want MY analysis? Well, I suppose that it's better than what you might get from that old windbag Peter Gammons.
Soriano is said to be the spark of this offense, and I am forced to agree. In a few games he was the offense, every bit of it. It would be nice if the Nats could score runs the old fashioned way, without needing dingers to be hit, but if he continues to hit 'em I'll be happy to take 'em. He needs to continue to improve his patience at the plate, as he should be striking out less and drawing more walks as the leadoff hitter. By the same token, I'm happy that opposing teams haven't figured out that he is a home run threat—yet—and happily pitch to him. He is knocking on Pujols' door in the home run department, and with Albert's injury Alfonso should take sole posession of that honor.
An interesting quote after today's game against the Brewers: “I like stealing bases better,” Soriano said. “I've never seen myself as much of a home run hitter.” I would rather have the homers than the steals; who wouldn't??
I also am coming around to the approach to the game that eschews base stealing, the hit-and-run play, and other costly plays, so I would hope that Soriano chooses his base stealing opportunities more carefully if he has a permanent green light. In his last 10 games he stole 3 but got caught twice and would have been caught in Sunday's game against the Brewers except that his slide knocked the ball out of the glove of Rickie Weeks. Had he been caught stealing that would have been a 50% success rate, which is too low to be of value to the team in scoring runs. Scoring runs is all that matters; scoring runs wins ball games. Outs are precious and should be avoided by the offense whenever possible.
Conclusion
The Nationals got the better end of the bargain in the trade that brought Soriano here.
Notes
[1] I never had a doubt after he started hitting 'em outta the park, that is.
2006-04-12
Wilkerson Leads the Majors
Interview
In other news, Brad Wilkerson shared this interview on XM175 on the Real Opening Day, namely the first game of the season in the Nation's Crapital, Washington, D.C..
What you won't hear (because I was madly dashing my trackball about to start recording) is his answer to the very first question: How do you feel, Brad? He replied, "I feel fine". There have been mumurs of Wilkerson experiencing shoulder pain and having trouble throwing and batting.
As C.E.O. of the world-famous SorianoWatch blog, I feel compelled to list the game statistics for the main player who was traded for Soriano:
Wilkerson AB=4, Hits=0, Runs=1, RBI=0, Walks=0, Strikeouts=0, L.O.B.=3, BA=.175
Apparently, Brad's only hit was a single and the rest must have been "In play, out(s) recorded." It was an exciting game up to the end, as the Angels came from behind in the 9th to win.
Brad Wilkerson was a fan favorite at RFK. Although he was not a superstar kind of player, he played his heart out, even when hurt. Yet, after his home run at RFK today, Alfonso Soriano was heard asking "How do you like me now, pendejo?", which roughly translates to "¿Ahora, como te gustas mi swagger, pendejo?"
Another Viewpoint
Charlie Slowes was interviewed on XM175 late last night. Part 1 and part 2 give you the view of a man who has watched the Nats in person for every one of their games in this young season.
Misery Loves Company
So while the Nats did not fare as well as we might have hoped on the One True Opening Day, we take heart in the fact that misery loves company. The Texas Rangers fall to 2-7. And we take heart in the words of our Fearless Leader, Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, who said, "It's a long, long, long, long, long, long, long, long season". I can't wait!
2006-03-27
Text summary of 2006.03.27 vs Cardinals
Executive Summary
The Cardinals' Jason Marquis looked dominating on the mound, the Nats' Pedro Astacio was serviceable but not a puzzle to the Cards early. The only scoring of the game came in the 2nd and 3rd innings and the Cards did it all. Nats looked better in the field than I have seen them.
Details

There was a ball hit sharply by [a Cardinal] just a couple inches past the glove of the diving 3rd baseman Damian Jackson and down the 3rd base line. Soriano didn't get to a fly ball that dropped in left field fairly close to the left field line, but he did catch a Yadier Molina fly ball in left center field proficiently. I remarked to the older gentleman sitting next to me (behind the plate at Roger Dean Stadium) that when the Cards hit fly balls they would drop in for hits, but when the Nats hit fly balls they would be caught for outs. I made that remark right after So Taguchi moved barely a half step to his right to catch a fly ball. It was just like that much of the game today. (This same gentleman has been a regular at Spring Training games going back to the earlier Expos days, and he helped me out with the first name of Chris Duncan in one of my audio reports.)
Nick Johnson looked solid defensively at 1st base. The first two outs of the game by Cards batters were grounders to 1st and Johnson got the glove on them cleanly, although as he picked up the potential out #2 there was a lapse as he was counting on Astacio to cover 1st and Astacio was barely loafing off the mound when it came time to throw; somehow, Johnson put that runner out all by his lonesome.

I did not see the genesis of what happened in the top of the 1st inning when Nick Johnson was tagged out halfway between 1st and 2nd base with the bases loaded. I gather that Yadier (not Benjy) Molina threw down there, he was called safe but he thought he was out and sauntered away a few feet, at which point he realized he was in big trouble and ran down towards 2nd, then back towards 1st where he was tagged out. Mental lapse? Poorly communicated umpire's call? Read Svrluga/Ladson/Loverra to find out more.

Ryan Church came in to replace Watson in the 5th inning. I found it notable that he was sitting on the field bench behind the plate next to Frank Robinson and a couple coaches later in the game, which is one of the cool things about Spring Training. Things are much less strict here.
In the later innings Castillo came in to catch and LeCroy played first base (despite the scoreboard reporting him as the catcher), other substitutions were made to give some other guys a look.
The Nats did not stink up the field, which is saying something considering other Spring Training games, so I hope that when they feel the intensity of the regular season that they can kick it up a notch and put on a respectable showing at the major league level. Ryan Zimmerman's comments the other day might have made Frank cringe, but they ring true: these guys are ready to come north and play games that count.
I heard it said on XM today that those teams that do well in Spring Training are showing off the talent of their minor league systems. The converse is left as an exercise to the reader.
I look at the upcoming season as one of rebuilding, of biding time until the new ownership group is named. In the meantime, I will be keeping a weather eye on the Nationals Farm Authority, as that will be where our future lies if the new owner has any sense.
I'm just happy that we can say what Red Sox fans said for so many, many years: maybe next year. We couldn't say that for 33 baseball seasons, but now we can. That's a good feeling.
Below: Frank recruits the Cardinals' bat boy to play left field for the Nats, as a worried Soriano looks on in disbelief.
2006-03-23
2006-03-22
Soriano Watch Over
The game was scheduled to start at 12:05 according to the St. Louis mlb.com web site, but as I arrived there were a great many other cars driving into the parking garage for Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Florida. It turns out that the game started at 13:05 as normal, so I was in luck to catch the opening pitch. How was I to know that a web site would post Central Times; the stock phrase is "ALL times eastern". We have a saying in Fort Lauderdale, you might have it there in D.C. as well; it goes, "Fool me once, shame on...shame on..." Well, anyway, it's a pretty neat saying.
I admit I was distracted from keeping my head in the game by my choice of standing in the very neat little field-level porch down the left field line at Roger Dean Stadium, talking to a couple Nats fans near me. Neither was I keeping score, so all those reports were from memory. I know a couple had some errors, but they can be corrected by consulting the box scores. My interest was providing breaking news; unfortunately most of it was not so good for Senators fans.
As the Nats were the visitors, they would bat first. The scoreboard already had the number 12 posted as the due batter and I thought that was Soriano's number. Nobody was in the on-deck area as the grounds crew completed their field preparations, and I overheard a couple fans with W caps on talking about how they would boo the nightlights out of him even if he did play today.
The public address announcer said his welcomes, then we heard "Leading off for the Washington Nationals, the left fielder...number 12, Alfonso Soriano" A great many people down in the bleacher area of the stadium were giving out cat calls and generally dogging the guy as he stood in.
He took the first pitch for a strike, then sent the next one high and deep towards the 400 foot marker, where it was caught at the edge of the grass for the first out of the game. He's known as a free swinger, so I guess anything near the plate will see him hacking away.
He made a nice catch of a fly ball in the bottom of the first inning, then later in the game backed up a bounding ball in the hole at short to start a double play. He also hit a double down the left field line that landed right in front of where I was standing, except I had headed for quieter parts to record one of these reports for yous, so I missed it. So for now he is out of the dog house, but nowhere near inside by the fire. At least he didn't stink up the field today, but he left tomorrow and future games as an open possibility in an interview just aired on ESPN.
Damian Jackson backed up on a high fly ball, then watched it drop onto the grass a few feet in front of his outstretched glove. I don't know where Soriano was at the time, as I was too livid to see anything but red.
Then we witnessed yet another of the Nats' patented Keystone Cops "hot potato" scenes between 2nd and 3rd as the ball simply had no handle on it, Jackson lunged for it on the ground and fell flat on his belly, then shoveled wide to Zimmerman at third and I think it went wide there: two errors on one play.
This is the same Little League caliber play that I walked into last Friday against the Orioles. I know it's Spring Training, but these guys look like they have never taken any infield drills in their entire lives. One good thing that the World Baseball Classic has pointed out is that fundamentally sound defense can go a long way towards winning ball games. Buck Martinez noted this morning on MLB Home Plate on XM175 (a GREAT resource for baseball fans) that a lot of major league clubs don't even take infield practice at all, so if the Nats are in that pile of dung it is showing in a big way right now.
I thought Frank Robinson stood for hard work on the fundamentals, but you wouldn't know it by watching the early innings of some of these Spring Training games. Along about the fourth or fifth innings they seem to settle down, of course that's also about the time when they make substitutions. Coincidence? Possibly. Alien influence? Definitely.
I doubt that I will make any more Spring Training games, at least for the D.C. team 3 hours north in Viera. Perhaps the Orioles because they are right here in Fort Lauderdale, but you know how we feel about their owner. I guess I will leave this blog up as an example of what can be done, but don't expect any more activity here.
Thanx for listening!
Bote Man
OUT
Nats at Cardinals, 2006.03.22
Weather forecast from Sun Slantinel:
As of 3:31 am EST on March 22, 2006
Today...Partly sunny. Patchy fog early in the morning. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
It's cloudy this morning as I type this with a weak cold front hanging over central FLA, but it will likely clear up later this morning as the winds start a-blowin.
Statement of Purpose
Listen for audio blog updates from the field as necessary.
This blog will vanish after its purpose has been served. Don't get too attached to it.

