The Bitcoin price stood at $80,853 on Sunday morning, 25 October 2026, according to CoinGecko market data. Traders in Germany now have a firm clock to watch. The Federal Reserve will publish its FOMC statement at 7 p.m. German time on Wednesday, 28 October, CryptoTicker reported, with the press conference following at 19:30.
That is 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, so the statement itself has not moved. What moved is the German clock. Europe switches to winter time before the United States does, which pulls the release an hour earlier for readers in Berlin, Frankfurt and Vienna. We covered the wider setup in our earlier look at why Bitcoin waits on three events, and this piece zooms in on the schedule, the price data and the numbers that matter before the release.
Below, we lay out what is confirmed, what economists expect, and what nobody can know until the statement lands. We also add a developer angle, since time zones and traffic spikes break more trading scripts than price moves do. The filing category is coding tools, and the last third of the piece reflects that.
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Bitcoin Price Heading Into the Fed Statement
The latest Bitcoin price reading we can verify is $80,853 on the morning of 25 October, per CoinGecko. Four days earlier, on Wednesday morning, 21 October, reported market data put Bitcoin at $82,708, which equaled €73,652 at the time. The overnight range on that Wednesday ran from $81,273 to $83,249.
Do the arithmetic and the picture is plain. Bitcoin is down about 2.2% from the 21 October reading, and it now trades roughly $420 below the bottom of that overnight range. It sits about 2.9% under the top of it. That is a modest drift, not a rout. Bitcoin has slipped out of a narrow band without breaking anything structural.
Other outlets describe a choppier tape. The Economic Times reported that Bitcoin slipped below $81,000 even while spot ETF inflows stayed strong, and CoinGlass data cited in the same coverage showed crypto liquidations topping $465 million over 24 hours. Price quotes differ by venue and by minute, so treat any single number as a snapshot. The CoinGecko figure is the one we anchor to here.
| Date | Bitcoin price (USD) | Reported source or detail |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, 21 Oct 2026 (overnight low) | $81,273 | Bottom of the overnight range |
| Wed, 21 Oct 2026 (morning) | $82,708 | Equal to €73,652 at the time |
| Wed, 21 Oct 2026 (overnight high) | $83,249 | Top of the overnight range |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 (morning) | $80,853 | CoinGecko market data |
| Change, 21 Oct morning to 25 Oct | -$1,855 (about -2.2%) | Our calculation from the figures above |
What the FOMC Calendar Confirms
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 27 and 28 October 2026. The policy statement is scheduled for Wednesday, 28 October, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The press conference comes 30 minutes later. In German time, that means a 19:00 statement and a 19:30 press conference, the schedule CryptoTicker flagged as the top story for crypto readers this weekend.
KPMG’s October primer on the meeting says the committee concludes its work on 28 October. The firm expects the statement to stay largely unchanged. That expectation is a forecast, and nothing in the confirmed schedule tells us what the committee will decide. We treat any claim that the Fed will raise or cut rates on 28 October as unconfirmed until the text is published.
The current federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. Every rate scenario in this article starts from that band. A hold leaves it intact, and any move would shift it by a step from there.
Why the Statement Lands at 7 p.m. German Time
The earlier German-time release traces to a calendar quirk. Europe moves to winter time on the last Sunday of October, which this year falls on 25 October. The United States waits until the first Sunday of November. For one week, the usual six-hour gap between New York and Berlin shrinks to five.
Do the conversion and the answer checks out. New York is still on daylight time on 28 October, so 2:00 p.m. there equals 18:00 UTC. Berlin runs on UTC+1 after the switch, so the same moment reads 19:00. Readers in London, who also change clocks on 25 October, will see the statement at 18:00. Anyone who set a calendar alert last week for 8 p.m. German time now has it wrong by an hour.
The press conference matters as much as the text for markets. Reporters press the Fed chair on the path ahead, and answers can recast a flat statement in minutes. Bitcoin trades around the clock, so the 19:30 session will hit a market that is already open, thin on a Wednesday evening in Europe and just waking up in the US.
What Economists Expect From the Fed
The forecasting community leans one way. A Reuters poll published on 20 October found that 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold rates in October. All 100 expect a rate increase in December 2026. Nearly 60% see the policy rate eventually peaking between 4.00% and 4.25%. Those are survey results, not decisions, and Reuters headlined the poll around the idea that the Fed skips October and raises in December.
KPMG’s primer points the same direction for October. It describes a committee that holds the range at 3.75% to 4.00% and leaves the statement largely intact. It also notes that the Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September, which Trading Economics described as the first increase since 2023.
US Bank takes a more aggressive view in its monthly outlook. The bank expects gradual tightening through early 2027, with cumulative increases of 75 basis points between October 2026 and March 2027. That path would carry the range to 4.25% to 4.50%. Trading Economics also reported that the Fed chair declined to signal the October outcome at an IMF event in Bangkok, saying hotter-than-expected inflation had not changed his assessment of the economy. That prompted traders to scale back odds of an October hike.
- Reuters poll (20 October): 94 of 100 economists expect an October hold, and all 100 expect a December increase.
- KPMG (October primer): hold at 3.75% to 4.00% with a largely unchanged statement.
- US Bank (monthly outlook): 75 basis points of cumulative increases from October 2026 through March 2027.
- Trading Economics: traders trimmed October hike expectations after the Fed chair’s remarks in Bangkok.
How a 3.75% to 4.00% Rate Shapes Crypto Pricing
Bitcoin pays no yield, so every rate decision changes its competition. When safe assets offer close to 4%, holding a non-yielding asset costs more in forgone income. That logic explains why crypto desks watch the statement language more than the headline rate. A hawkish tilt in wording can matter as much as a move itself.
The same logic cuts the other way. If the Fed holds and signals patience, the immediate pressure on risk assets eases. Economists already price a December increase, so the October statement mostly needs to avoid surprising anyone. A surprise in either direction, not the hold itself, is what typically produces sharp intraday swings.
Equity markets face the same event, with earnings piling on top. Our Wall Street week-ahead piece covers how one-third of the S&P 500 reports while the Fed meets. Crypto and tech stocks share a calendar this week, and cross-asset moves can amplify each other.
ETF Flows and Liquidations Set the Backdrop
Institutional demand has not vanished. According to coverage syndicated on Ground News, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $31.07 million on the latest reported Monday, extending their inflow streak to eight consecutive trading sessions. Total US spot crypto ETF inflows, however, fell roughly 80%, from $330.8 million on Friday to $64.8 million on Monday.
The prior week was far stronger. Four categories of US spot crypto ETFs together drew more than $3.3 billion. Separate Farside Investors data, reported on Ground News, showed Bitcoin ETFs with $82.9 million of net inflows for 28 September to 2 October, while Ethereum ETFs saw about $118 million leave. That weekly Bitcoin intake dropped sharply from $2.39 billion the week before.
| US spot ETF category | Latest reported Monday inflow | Share of the day’s $64.8M total |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin ETFs | $31.07 million | About 48% |
| Ether ETFs | $17.1 million | About 26% |
| Solana ETFs | $12.7 million | About 20% |
| XRP ETFs | $3.96 million | About 6% |
The shares in the last column are our own division of each figure by the $64.8 million total. They show Bitcoin still pulling the largest share of the day’s money, nearly half, even as the headline total shrank. Liquidations tell the other side of the story. A $465 million flush over 24 hours says leveraged traders were caught on the wrong side while spot buyers kept adding.
A Trader’s Clock for 28 October
Here is the sequence that matters on the day, converted for the three time bases readers ask about most. All times refer to Wednesday, 28 October 2026.
- 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (18:00 UTC): Fed statement published.
- 19:00 German time (18:00 in London): the same release, one hour earlier than German readers expect in a normal week.
- 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time (19:30 German time): press conference begins, 30 minutes after the statement.
Two practical notes follow. First, exchanges and data vendors publish funding rates and open interest on their own schedules, so check how your venue rolls over. Second, the thinnest order books often appear in the minutes just before a release, when market makers widen spreads to protect themselves. Placing market orders in that window costs more than most people expect.
The Developer Angle: Time Zones, Bots and Event-Day Load
Anyone running a trading script, a price alert or a dashboard should treat 28 October as a test day. Hard-coded offsets are the classic failure. A cron job tied to a fixed UTC offset fires an hour wrong once the clocks change on only one side of the Atlantic. The fix is to store event times in a named zone and convert at the edge.
Convert the release time in code
Python’s standard library handles this cleanly through zoneinfo. The snippet below takes the Fed’s 2:00 p.m. New York time and returns the German equivalent, daylight saving rules included.
from datetime import datetime
from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo
fomc = datetime(2026, 10, 28, 14, 0, tzinfo=ZoneInfo("America/New_York"))
berlin = fomc.astimezone(ZoneInfo("Europe/Berlin"))
print(berlin.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M %Z"))
# 2026-10-28 19:00 CETLanguage choice matters less than the habit. Our Python versus Go usage comparison covers where each shines for services like these, and both ship solid time-zone support. Pick one, store zone names instead of offsets, and test across the 25 October and 1 November clock changes.
Plan for traffic and rate limits
Exchange APIs tighten under load. Back off on HTTP 429 responses with jittered retries, cache market data you do not need live, and avoid polling in tight loops around 19:00 and 19:30. If you build alerting with AI help, review what the assistant writes. The developer tool crowd is also busy that week, with big tech earnings on 28 and 29 October expected to put coding assistants in the spotlight. More guides sit in our software coverage.
Security and Custody Before a Volatile Print
Volatile sessions attract phishing, fake exchange alerts and spoofed support messages. Long-term holders gain little from reacting to the statement at all. If you hold coins off exchange, the signing process matters more than the price chart. Our explainer on how hardware wallets sign Bitcoin payments offline walks through why the private key never touches a connected machine.
Corporate treasuries watch this week too. Reports about a possible Tesla and SpaceX combination raised the question of how much Bitcoin a merged company would hold, which we examined in Tesla and SpaceX could pool 30,221 BTC. Any treasury holder carries mark-to-market swings on days like this one.
Historical Context: From Pause to Tightening
The Fed’s stance has changed within weeks. According to KPMG and Trading Economics, the committee raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, lifting the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. Trading Economics called that the first increase since 2023. The debate now centers on whether the next increase lands in October or December.
That reversal explains why Bitcoin’s reaction function looks different from the easing-cycle playbook many traders learned. Stubborn inflation, which Reuters cited as the reason policymakers hold back from a tougher response, keeps the Fed in reactive mode. Each data release feeds the next meeting, so the market treats every statement as a clue about the following one.
Regulation runs on a parallel track. The US banking regulator’s stablecoin rulemaking, covered in our GENIUS Act stablecoin rule report, points to January 2027 as a key date. Rate policy and crypto rules shape the same market from different directions.
Market Impact: Who Feels the Statement First
Leveraged traders feel it first. Perpetual futures positions face funding costs and liquidation levels that shift within seconds of a headline. The $465 million liquidation figure from recent days shows how quickly crowded positions unwind. Spot ETF buyers move more slowly, which is why flows lag the news by a trading session.
Miners, exchanges and crypto-linked equities follow with a delay. Their share prices respond to Bitcoin’s move and to broader risk sentiment, so a hawkish read often hits them harder than the coin itself. Stablecoin issuers sit on interest income, which makes rate paths a direct business input for them.
Retail holders in Europe face an extra layer, the euro exchange rate. The 21 October data pairing of $82,708 with €73,652 implies a dollar-euro rate near 1.12. A shift in that rate after a Fed decision can move a euro-denominated portfolio even if the dollar price holds still.
Predictions: Five Scenarios to Watch
These are our analysis, built on the survey data above. None of them is a confirmed outcome, and none is a price target.
- The Fed holds, which is the base case. With 94 of 100 Reuters respondents expecting it, a hold barely registers as news. The reaction then hinges on the press conference.
- The wording decides the move. A statement that keeps its tightening bias would match KPMG’s expectation. A softer tone would surprise the survey crowd and could lift risk assets.
- Bitcoin tests the $81,273 line. That level marked the bottom of the 21 October overnight range. Price sitting below it on Sunday makes it a reference point for the first move after 19:00.
- ETF flows stay positive but small. The eight-session streak is fragile when daily totals fall 80% in a single day. A flat session would not break it.
- December becomes the real event. If the October statement leaves the door open, as the Reuters poll assumes, crypto attention shifts to the next meeting almost immediately.
What Comes After the Statement
The 28 October release is one stop in a busy week. Earnings from large technology companies follow on 28 and 29 October, and US midterm politics hang over every asset class. Our earlier Bitcoin outlook frames those events together.
The takeaway: the schedule is firm, the rate range is known, and the outcome is not. Bitcoin at $80,853 has room to move in either direction. Set your alerts for 19:00 German time, check your scripts for hard-coded offsets, and keep position sizes small enough to survive a surprise.
FAQ
What time is the Fed statement in German time?
The statement is scheduled for 19:00 German time on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. That equals 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The press conference follows at 19:30 German time.
Why is the release earlier in Germany than usual?
Europe changes to winter time before the United States. For a week, the gap between New York and Berlin falls from six hours to five, which pulls the release to 19:00.
What is the Bitcoin price right now?
CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin at $80,853 on Sunday morning, 25 October 2026. Prices change constantly, so check a live feed before you trade.
What is the current federal funds target range?
The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. KPMG reported that the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 to reach it.
Will the Fed raise or cut rates on 28 October?
Nobody can confirm that before the release. A Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, but that is a forecast. The statement itself settles the question.
How will Bitcoin react to the Fed decision?
No reliable source can say. The reaction depends on the statement’s wording and the press conference. Treat any precise price prediction as speculation.
Are Bitcoin ETFs still seeing inflows?
Yes, as of the latest reported Monday. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $31.07 million, extending an inflow streak to eight sessions, though total spot crypto ETF inflows fell about 80% from the Friday before.
