
#63 åŽååå ¥ãšè³ç£åå ¥ã®æ±ºå®çãªæèå·®
ãŒæ¬åœã®èªåãšçµ±åããããã«ãŒ
ãèŠé à è³ç£æ§ç¯ãã§ãçæ³ã®äººçãžã¹ããŒãžã¢ãããããããããæãã
å¿ã®ç®éãã§ããç²Ÿç¥æ§ãšãç®ã«èŠããææã§ããçŸå®æ§ãçµ±åããè±ãããå·¡ãããããã®ãšãã»ã³ã¹ããå±ãããŠãããŸã
ã¯ãããŠã®æ¹ã¯ãã¡ãããã©ãã
90æ¥é£èŒã®ç®æ¬¡ã«ããªã£ãŠããŸãã
ã宣èšã 2030幎ãç§ãã¡ãç«ã£ãŠãããæ¬åœã®è±ãããã®å Žæãžç¶ãé
ã3ã¶æç®ïŒè³ç£ã¥ããã
ããã£ã³ã¹ãæŽãã§çµæžè³ç£ãšäººéé¢ä¿è³ç£ãäœã30æ¥ã
ãæ¯æãããªã«äžçæžåœåããŠããã®ã«ããªãããéãæéãæå ã«æ®ããªãâŠã
ããæããã®ã¯ãåªåäžè¶³ã§ã¯ãªããæéãåã売ãããéãããšããçãŸãã«ããã瀟äŒã®æ§é çãªã«ãŒã«ãã®äžã«ããããã§ãã
仿¥ã¯ããã®ã«ã©ã¯ãªãè§£ãæããæåãªã話ããã¹ã¿ãŒãããŸãã
ããã»ãã±ãã£ãæãããäžçã®çå®ãr > gããšã¯ïŒ
å°ãé£ããèããããããããŸãããããã©ã³ã¹ã®çµæžåŠè ããã»ãã±ãã£ããèæžã21äžçŽã®è³æ¬ãã§èšŒæããäžçäžã«è¡æãäžããæåãªäžçåŒããããŸãã
ããããã r > g ãïŒã¢ãŒã«ã»ãã€ããªãŒã»ãžãŒïŒrã¯gãã倧ããïŒã§ãã
rãšgãäœã衚ããã¯ããã¡ãã
rïŒCapital IncomeïŒè³æ¬åççïŒ
æ ªåŒãäžåç£ãäºæ¥ãªã©ã®ãè³ç£ããçã¿åºã幎éæé·ç
ïŒæŽå²çå¹³åã§å¹Ž4ã5%çšåºŠïŒ
gïŒEconomic GrowthïŒçµæžæé·çïŒ
æéãšäœã䜿ã£ãŠåãã絊äžã»åŽååå
¥ãã®äŒžã³ç
ïŒå¹Ž1ã2%çšåºŠïŒ
ãã±ãã£ã¯18äžçŽãŸã§é¡ãé廿°çŸå¹Žã®èšå€§ãªããŒã¿ãåæãããè³ç£ãè²ã€ã¹ããŒãïŒ r ïŒã¯ãåããŠåŸã絊æã®äŒžã³çïŒ g ïŒãåžžã«äžåãç¶ããŠããããšããäºå®ãæ¬æžã®äžã§æèšããŠããŸãã
ã幎4ã5%ããšã幎1ã2%ãã®å·®ãå ·äœçã«æããŠã¿ã
ãã®æ°ããŒã»ã³ãã®å·®ãã©ãã»ã©çµ¶æçãªéããçãã®ããå ·äœçãªæ°å€ã§æããŠã¿ãŠãã ããã
ã絊æïŒ g ã®äžçïŒïŒå¹Ž1%ã§å¢ããå Žåã
幎å500äžåã§äžçæžåœåããŠã絊æãæ¯å¹Ž1%ãã€é 調ã«äžãã£ããšããŸãã1幎åŸã®æçµŠé¡ã¯ïŒ5äžåïŒå¹Žå505äžåïŒã§ãã
ãè³ç£ïŒ r ã®äžçïŒïŒå¹Ž5%ã§å¢ããå Žåã
äžæ¹ãæè³ãäºæ¥ãªã©ã®ãè³ç£ãã500äžåæã£ãŠãã人ã®è³ç£ãã幎5%ã§å¢ãããšããŸãã1幎åŸã«çã¿åºããããéã¯ïŒ25äžåã§ãã
èªåã1å¹Žéæ±æ°ŽæµããŠåããŠå¢ãã絊æïŒ5äžåïŒããããè³ç£ãåæã«çã¿åºãããéïŒ25äžåïŒã®æ¹ãããªããš5åãéãã¹ããŒãã§å¢ããŠããã®ã§ããè³ç£ã1,000äžåãããšããã°ã5ïŒ ã§+50äžåã10åã®éãã§å¢ãããšèšãããã§ãïŒ
ããã«ãè³ç£åå ¥ã«ã¯æ±ºå®çãªã¢ããã³ããŒãžããããŸãã
è³ç£åå ¥ïŒ r ïŒã®æå€§ã®åŒ·ã¿ã¯ãæéã奪ãããªãããšã
ããã¯ãè³ç£ã幎5%ã§åæã«å¢ããŠãããŠããéãèªåèªèº«ã®æéã身äœã¯ãå®å šã«èªç±ãã§ãããšããããšã§ãã
è³ç£ãè£ã§åããŠãããŠããéãç§ãã¡ã¯èªåã®æéãèªç±ã«äœ¿ã£ãŠå¥ã®ããžãã¹ãç«ã¡äžããããããã«åŽååå ¥ãåŸãŠæè³å æ¬ãå¢ããããã倧奜ããªå®¶æãšæ è¡ã«è¡ã£ããããããšãã§ããŸãã
ã€ãŸãããè³ç£ã«åããŠããããªãããèªåã䞊è¡ããŠä»ã®åå ¥ãå¢ãããïŒæãç®ãã§ããïŒãã®ã ãr ã®äžçã®æå€§ã®åŒ·ã¿ããªã®ã§ãã
ã©ãã ãçé¢ç®ã«åããèªåã®æéãšåŽååãåã売ãïŒ g ïŒãç¶ããŠããä»çµã¿ãè³ç£ïŒ r ïŒãè²ãŠãŠããåŽãšã®å·®ãéããŠããã°ãããªã®ã¯ããã®ãã¹ããŒãããšãæéã®èªç±åºŠãã®æ§é çãªå·®ãåå ã§ãã
åŽååå ¥ãšæèã®ã決å®çãªéãã
ã§ã¯æ¬é¡ã®ããåŽååå ¥ã®æèããšãè³ç£åå ¥ã®æèãã®éãã¯ã©ãã«ããã§ãããããããã¯ãèªåãšãããªãœãŒã¹ïŒæéã»äœåïŒãã©ãã«æããŠããããã§ãã
åŽååå
¥ã®æèïŒ g ã®äžçïŒ
ãèªåãçŽæ¥åããŠã1æéãããããã皌ãããïŒããèãããèªåã®æéããåã売ããããŠå¯ŸäŸ¡ãåŸãæèã
è³ç£åå
¥ã®æèïŒ r ã®äžçïŒ
ãã©ãããã°èªåãåããªããŠã䟡å€ãçã¿åºããä»çµã¿ïŒè³æ¬ïŒããäœãããïŒããèãããèªåã®æéããç©ã¿äžããè³ç£ïŒç¥èã»ããŒã«ã»äºæ¥ã»æè³ïŒãã«å€ããŠããæèã
ããéã®ããã«èªåãåããç¶æ ããããèªåããéã®ããã«ãä»çµã¿ã«åããŠããããç¶æ ãžã
èœåãæèœã®å·®ã§ã¯ãªãããã©ã¡ãã®äžçã®ã«ãŒã«ã§çãããããšããæèã®éžæã®éããªã®ã§ãã
r > gãçšããŠèªåã®åŽåããè³ç£ãã«å€ãã6ã€ã®å ·äœç
ç®æãã®ã¯ãåŽåãå®å šã«åŠå®ããããšã§ã¯ãããŸããã
ãäžçæžåœåãïŒ g ïŒãããšã§åŸãæéã»åŽåã»ãéãããã®å Žéãã®æ¶è²»ã§çµãããããå°ããã€ãåæã«å·¡ãç¶ããè³ç£ïŒ r ïŒããžãšå€æããŠããããšã§ãã
å ·äœçã«ã¯ã以äžã®ãããªã¢ãããŒãã§èªåã®åŽåããè³ç£åãããŠããããšãã§ããŸãã
åŽåããè³ç£ãã«å€ãã6ã€ã®å ·äœç
ãããžã¿ã«è³ç£åã
çµéšãç¥æµãããžã¿ã«ã³ã³ãã³ãïŒæç« ã»åç»ã»ãã¬ãžã³ã»é³å£°ïŒã«ãã
ãã®å Žéãã®ã³ã³ãµã«ãã³ãŒãã³ã°ã察é¢ã»ãã·ã§ã³ã§çµãããããnoteã®èšäºããã¬ãžã³ãè¬åº§åç»ãé³å£°ã³ã³ãã³ããšããŠæ®ãããšã§ãèªåãå¯ãŠããéã誰ãã«äŸ¡å€ãå±ãç¶ãããããžã¿ã«è³ç£ãã«å€ããããã¹ããã¯åã³ãã¥ããã£ã
顧客ãšã®é¢ä¿æ§ããã¹ããã¯åïŒã³ãã¥ããã£ã»æé¡å¶ïŒãã«ãã
åçºã®å£²ãåãååã ãã§ãªããæé¡å¶ã®ãã¬ãžã³ãã³ãã¥ããã£ïŒã¡ã³ããŒã·ããïŒãæ§ç¯ããæ¯æå®å®ããä¿¡é Œãšåçãèç©ãããåºç€ãäœãããæ¥åã®ä»çµã¿åã
ããã¥ã¢ã«ããã³ãã¬ãŒããäœããäœæ¥ãä»çµã¿åã»èªååãã
èªåãæ¯åæäœæ¥ã§è¡ã£ãŠããæ¥åãããã¥ã¢ã«åããããITããŒã«ãAIãæŽ»çšããŠèªååããããšã§ããèªåã®æéã䜿ããªããŠãåãäœå¶ããäœãããèªåç©ç«ã¢ãã«ã
åŽåã§åŸãè³éã®äžéšããæå ãéèè³ç£ïŒã€ã³ããã¯ã¹æè³ãETFãªã©ïŒãã«åã
åããŠåŸã絊äžãäºæ¥åå ¥ïŒ g ïŒãããæ¯ææ±ºãŸã£ãé¡ãäžççµæžã®æé·ã«ä¹ãæè³ïŒ r ïŒãšããŠã€ã³ããã¯ã¹æè³ãETFïŒäžå Žæè³ä¿¡èšïŒãžãšèªåã§æµãä»çµã¿ãäœãããçéã®è³ç£åœ¢æã
NISAãªã©ã掻çšããæ ªåŒæè³ã§çå®ã«è³ç£ã®åå°ãè²ãŠã
åŽåã§åŸãè³éïŒ g ïŒãNISAãªã©ã®å¶åºŠã掻çšããŠäžçã®æé·äŒæ¥ãæ ªåŒã€ã³ããã¯ã¹ã«æè³ããããšã§ãçµæžæé·ã®æ³¢ã«ä¹ããªããäžé·æã§æå ããéãåããããå®ããšæ»ãã®åå°ããç¯ãããæ¬¡äžä»£ã€ãããŒã·ã§ã³æè³ã
æå·è³ç£ãWeb3.0æä»£ã®è³ç£éçšãšæããå°é¡ããã³ãã³ãè²ãŠã
2026幎7æãæå·è³ç£ãéèååãšããŠæ±ãæ³æ¹æ£ãåœäŒã§å¯æ±ºã»æç«ããæ¥æ¬ç€ŸäŒã§ãã€ã³ãã©æŽåãäžæ°ã«é²ãã§ããŸããä»åŸã¯ç€ŸäŒçããŒãºã®æ¡å€§ãäºæ³ããããããæ ªåŒãªã©ã®äŒçµ±çè³ç£ãšçµã¿åãããªãããã«ãŒã«ãç¥èãæ£ããåŠã³ãå°é¡ããã³ãã³ãç©ã¿ç«ãŠãŠãæ¬¡ã®æä»£ã®æé·ã®æ³¢ïŒ r ïŒãã«ä¹ã£ãŠããã
ãã®å幎ã1幎ã§ã©ããå®è·µã§ããã®ãããŸãã¯å®è·µãããã®ããèªåã®æãæªæ¥åãã€ã¡ãŒãžããªãããä»çµã¿ãæ§ç¯ããŠããããã®æ å ±åéãšå°é¡ããã®æè³ãäœæããŠãããšè¯ããšæããŸãã
仿¥ã®å°ããªäžæ©ïŒæèã®ã·ãããã§ã³ãž
仿¥ããããªåããèªåèªèº«ã«æããããŠã¿ãŠãã ããã
ã仿¥äœ¿ã£ãæéããéã®ãã¡ãæªæ¥ã«ç©ã¿äžãããè³ç£ïŒ r ïŒãã«å€ãã£ããã®ã¯äœããŒã»ã³ããããŸããïŒã
ã»ãã®æ°ããŒã»ã³ãã§ãæ§ããŸãããèªåã®åŽåããè³ç£ãã«å€ããŠããæèãæã€ããšããr > gã®æ³¢ã«ä¹ããèªç±ãæã«å ¥ãã確ããªç¬¬äžæ©ã«ãªããŸãã
ç§ãè€æ°ãçµã¿åãããŠãè³ç£ã¥ãããããªããæéãšå¿ã®èªç±ãçã¿åºããŠãããŸããééæè³ã«éãããèªåã®äººçãè±ãã«çããããã«ãåŸãè³ç£ã¥ããã®ç¥èãæ å ±ããã¡ãã§å ±æããŠãããŸãã

ããŠã次åã®ããŒãã¯ã
ãã絶察ã«å²ããããçãïŒæ¬ç©ã®èŠæãæ¹ãã§ãã
è³ç£ã¥ãããæèãå§ãã人ãçããçãæè³è©±ãè©æ¬ºã®æå£ãã絶察ã«å²ããããæŸçœ®ã§æå©ã%ããšãã£ãçãèªæã«éšãããªãããã®æ¬ç©ã®èŠæ¥µãæ¹ãšãè³ç£ãå®ããç®å©ãåãã«ã€ããŠãäŒãããŸãã
64æ¥ç®ã®é ä¿¡ããèŠãŠããã ãããšå¬ããã§ã
â¶ïžâ·æ¬¡ã®èšäº
ã64æ¥ç®ãã絶察ã«å²ããããçãïŒæ¬ç©ã®èŠæãæ¹
ââïžåã®èšäºÂ
ã62æ¥ç®ããéã®ãªãã©ã·ãŒãé«ãããå®ããšæ»ãã