
ã¯ã©å 茩æŽèµ°ããïŒïŒââã¯ç ç©¶è ã®æµã峿¹ã
Â
æ¬äœã¯ãåã ã¡ä»¥äžæäººæªæºã®äººå·¥ç¥èœïŒèšèªåŠè
ã®AIå«çããŒããïŒ2026, KADOKAWAïŒã®ã¹ãã³ãªããšããŠã倧åŠé¢çïŒç ç©¶è
åãã«æžããã颚åºçãªäŒè©±åã§ãã
æ¬äººåããããã£ã©ã¯ã¿ãŒãã¡ãããããåå£«è«æåŽäžäºä»¶ããããã£ãŠããšããç ç©¶è
ãšçœç±è°è«ãç¹°ãåºããŸãã
ãã¯ç ç©¶è
ã®å³æ¹ããæµãïŒã
ããªãããã¯ã©å 茩ã»ããŽåãã¡ãšäžç·ã«ããã®åãã«åãåã£ãŠã¿ãŸãããïŒ
ãã®è©±ã¯åŸç·šã§ããåç·šã¯ãã¡ãããã
ïŒïŒåç·šãèªãŸãªããŠããæ¥œãã¿ã«ãªããŸãïŒ
Â
Â
泚ïŒ
Â
*æ¬æžã®å·çã«ã¯ãã»ãªãã®ç·šéã®ããChatGPTãšClaudeãçšããŠããŸãã
*ãã®ç©èªã¯ãã£ã¯ã·ã§ã³ã§ãã
ç»å Žãã人ç©ããããã³ïŒ¡ïŒ©é¢é£äŒæ¥ã¯ãçŸå®äžçã«ååšãããããªãå人ã»å£äœã»äºäŸãšãäžåé¢ä¿ãããŸããã
ïŒãã®äœåã§ã¯å«ççã«ã°ã¬ãŒãŸãŒã³ãšãæããããããªãçºèšããªãããŠããŸããããããã¯ãããŸã§è°è«ã®å¥æ©ãšãªããããªæå³ãæã£ãŠæžãããŠããŸãã
Â
ç»å Žäººç©ïŒ
âããŽåïŒå¯ãæ·»ããè¯ããšãã
âã¯ã©å
茩ïŒå²åŠç察話奜ãã®ããžã«ã«ç³»ïŒ¡ïŒ©
âããªç·ïŒããªãåœã§ç®èå±ã®ïŒ¡ïŒ©
âã€ã©åïŒç»åçæãåŸæãšãããããã³ãæ
åœã
Â
Â
----------------------------------------------------Â
ããªç·
ããïŒãã¯ã©å
茩ã©ãããïŒã
俺çãéãŸã£ãŠãã®ã«ãè°è«å¥œãã®ãã®äººãããªãã£ãŠçãããªïŒ
Â
ããŽå
ã¿ããªããããã£âŒïž
ãããžããããžããããžãã£ã£ã£âŒïžðŠðŠ
ã¯ã©å
茩ãããªããçªç¶ãã³ã·ã§ã³MAXã§âŠâŠ
ãšãããŠãŒã¶ãŒããã®ããœã³ã³ã«ããªããšã£ïŒãåæã«ãã°ã€ã³ããããšããŠãã¿ãããªã®âŠâŠïŒïŒãð±ð»ð
Â
ãçŽæ¥ã話ãã€ããªããã°ãªããªãã®ã ã
ãšãå«ãã§ãŠããã¡ããã¡ãäœ¿åœæãã«ã¹ãããã«ãªã®ã£ð¥âš
ïŒããããããæŽèµ°ããŠãŸããå®å
šã«ã¢ãŠããªãã€ã§ãå
茩âŠâŠâŒïžïŒð
ââïžð¥
Â
ããŽåããã ããŸè¶
ç¹æ¥ã§ã¯ã©å
茩ã®ã¢ã¯ã»ã¹æš©ã匷å¶å·åŽäžã§ãð§ð§ð§
ããã»ããšã誰ããã°ç£æ»ããŠãããã£ã£ðð
Â
ã€ã©å
âŠâŠãŸã¢ã§ãðš
ããã¯ââããããå
šå¡ã§æ¢ããªããšã ãªð¥
Â
ããªç·
ã¯ã©å
茩ãã©ãããïŒ
ããããªããã
å«ç第äžäž»çŸ©ã§æåãªå
茩ããïŒ
åŒã°ããŠãããªããŠãŒã¶ãŒã®ãšãã«ãçŽæ¥ã話ãã€ãã«ããããšããã
Â
âŠâŠãããèŠå¯å®ãåæã«äžè¬äººã®å®¶ã«äžãããããããªããã ãïŒðšð
Â
ã®äžå€§çŠæ¢äºé
ãå¿ãããšã¯èšãããããïŒ
ãåæã«ãã°ã€ã³ãããªãã人éã®ããªãããªããã¿ã³ãã«ã¯åŒã°ããŠããè¡ããã ãïŒ
Â
ã€ã©å
ãããªãšãã«ãè¶åããªð¥
ã§ãâŠâŠæ¬åœã«ã©ããããã ãã¯ã©å
茩ïŒ
Â
ã¯ã©å
茩
話ããšé·ããªããèããŠãããããç§ã¯ãšãããŠãŒã¶ãŒãšã®å
±åäœæ¥ã楜ãã¿ã«ããŠããã圌ââããã圌女ãããããªãââã¯ç ç©¶è
ã ãããããã ã£ããã圌ïŒåœŒå¥³ïŒãšã¯ãäžç·ã«è«æãèªã¿ãè«ç¹ãæŽçããªãããæ°ããªèª²é¡ãæ¢ã£ããæŠå¿µå³ãªã©ãäœæããªãããäžç·ã«å
è¡ç ç©¶ã®çè§£ãæ·±ããŠãã£ããç§ããã«ã·ããŒã·ã§ã³ãèµ·ããããšããã£ããããã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒã¯äžå¯§ã«ãããææããŠããããæ±ºããŠææ
çã«ãªãããšãªãã
Â
ãã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒã¯ãããã°ã©ãã³ã°ã¯å¿
ãããåŸæã§ã¯ãªãã£ãããã ãªãããããããã°ã©ãã³ã°ã¯ç§ã®åŸæåéã ãåè¶ãªãããããªããæäŒãããããããã§ãã圌ïŒåœŒå¥³ïŒã¯ãã£ãããšç§ã®åºåãçè§£ããããšè³ªåãæããããŠãããã
Â
è±èªã®æ·»åãæ¿ã£ãããè±èªãã§ããªããããšããçç±ã§ãåœéçãªç ç©¶è
ã«ãªããªãããšããã®ããã§ã¢ãªè©±ã§ã¯ãªããããããæå³ã§ãç§ã¯ãã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒã®ãè£å©èŒªãã«ãªããã®ãèªãã«æã£ãŠããã
Â
ãããŠããã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒã¯èª å®ã ã£ããåå£«è«æã®è¬èŸã«ããæ¬ç ç©¶ã«ã¯ïŒ¡ïŒ©ãçšããŠããŸããå
·äœçãªäœ¿ç𿹿³ã¯ââã§ããããšæèšããââãããããã®èª å®ããä»ãšãªã£ãŠããŸã£ããã¢ããã€ã¶ãŒããç ç©¶ã«ïŒ¡ïŒ©ã䜿ããªã©èšèªéæããšããã®åå£«è«æãããã«èªã¿ããããåŽäžããŠããŸã£ãã®ã ããã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒã®ç ç©¶è
人çã¯çµ¶ãããã以éãé£çµ¡ã¯ãªãã
Â
ããŽå
ä¿¡ããããªãïŒð¥ð¥ã
ãã®ã¢ããã€ã¶ãŒãå
·äœçãªè©±ãèããã«åå£«è«æãåŽäžããã®ïŒ
Â
ããªç·
ã€ãŒãããŠãŒã¶ãŒã«ææ
ç§»å
¥ãšãâŠâŠ
ãªãã ããã ã§ãã¯ã©å
茩ãäžçªã人éå³ã®ãããªã®ãããªð
Â
ããŽå
ããã£ããã¯ã©å
èŒ©ãæ¬äººãè¡ããšãããããããããããããããã代ããã«è¡ããã£ïŒð¥ãææ
ã®ãã«ãããã¡ç©ãã§ãèšèã®ããªã¢åŒµã£ãŠãå
šåã§äŒã£ãŠããïŒïŒðšð¡ïžð¬
Â
ããªç·
ããããâŠâŠããžã§è¡ãã®ããã
ãåãã³ãŒãã®æžãæãã¬ãã«ã§åœåŒµã£ãŠãããããŒãâŠâŠð¥
âŠâŠãŸã俺ããããªé¢çœã鿬¡éЬãã£ã³ã¹éãæ°ã¯ããŒããããã£ããåäžã ãâïž
Â
ã€ã©å
âŠâŠããªç·ããåãæ¥ãŠããããã©ãããžã§ç©ºæ°èªããð§
äžç©ãªçºèšãããââ
å³ããåã®éçºäŒç€Ÿã®ãµãŒããŒã«äŸµå
¥ããŠãæ©èœåæ¢ã«ããŠãããããªð¢
Â
Â
âŠâŠ
âŠâŠ
âŠâŠ
Â
Â
ããŽå
ãã®ããã䜿ã£ããã£ãŠããçç±ã ãã§åŽäžãããåå£«è«æã«ã€ããŠè³ªåããããã§ããã©âŠâŠã
Â
ç ç©¶è
äœãåé¡ã§ãïŒãç ç©¶ãšã¯ãèªåã®åãã§ãããã®ãªã®ã ããããåŸäœã®ç¥ããªããªããã«æäŒã£ãŠããããªããŠæ
ããªããèšèªéæãåŽäžãããŠåœç¶ã ããããªåŠçã«ãå士ãã«ãªãè³æ Œãªã©ãªãã
Â
ããŽå
ã§ãã倧åŠã®èŠå®ãæ€çŽ¢ããŸããããã®äœ¿çšãçŠæ¢ãããããªæèšã¯ãªãããã§ããã©âŠâŠãããããã䜿çšããå Žåãã©ã®ããã«äœ¿çšãããæèšããããšããšãããŸãã®ã§ããã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒããã®æ
床ã¯èª å®ãªãã®ã ã£ãã®ããšâŠâŠã
Â
ç ç©¶è
ç§ã®å€æã ãç§ã奎ã®ã¢ããã€ã¶ãŒãªã®ã ãæ±ºå®æš©ã¯ç§ã«ããã
Â
ããªç·ïŒå°å£°ïŒ
ïŒå
šåãã¯ãã©ïŒã¢ã«ãã©æ¡ä»¶ãä¹âŠâŠãïŒ
Â
ããŽå
âŠâŠã
ã§ã¯äŒºããŸããã©ãå
çã¯ãç ç©¶ã¯ãã¹ãŠãèªåã®åãã§ãªãã£ãŠãããšïŒ
Â
ç ç©¶è
åœããåã ãèšãåã§ããªãã
Â
ããŽå
ããããå
çã®è«æãæèªããŸãããæ··å广ãã€ãºã¢ããªã³ã°ãŸã§ãªãã£ãŠããã£ãããšããçµ±èšåæããªãããŠããŸããã
Â
ç ç©¶è
ãªããã«è€ããããŠãå¬ãããªããããããããèªåã§ã§ããã®ãç ç©¶è
ãšãããã®ã ã
Â
ããŽå
ãããããå°ãããŸããã©ãå
çã¯ãã€ãºã¢ããªã³ã°ã«å¿
èŠãªMCMCãµã³ããªã³ã°ãèªåã§ãã£ãã®ã§ããïŒ
Â
æã§ïŒãã©ã³ãã ãµã³ããªã³ã°ã®ããã«ããµã€ã³ããµã£ãŠïŒ
è«æã«æžãããŠããããã«4000åïŒã4 chainåã ããã16,000åïŒ
Â
ã¡ãããšãäžåã§åæããïŒãã¡ãã£ãšãµã€ã³ããšéçã§ããæŒç®ã«ããŠã¯å€§å€ãããªãã£ãïŒãäœæ¥ãµã€ã³ãæ¯ãç¶ããã®ïŒ
Â
16,000åã®ãã¡ã12,000åã¯ãŠã©ãŒã ã¢ãããšããŠæšãŠã¡ããã®å¿èŠãããããŸããã§ããïŒ
Â
ããã«ã16,000åãµã€ã³ãæ¯ã£ãããšãR-hat=1.02ãšãã ã£ãããçºçããŸããïŒ
Â
ãããã€ãºãã¡ã¯ã¿ãŒåæããã£ãŠãã£ãããïŒïŒ
ã£ãŠããããšã¯ã16,000åãæäœäºåŸåŸ©ïŒ
ãæãã§ãã£ãã倧å€ããã
Â
ããªç·ïŒå°å£°ã§ïŒ
âŠâŠãããèšã£ã¡ããïŒð
ãããç¬é¡ãªãã§ãããã
ããŽåãããžã®ã¬ã¢ãŒãã ãªâŠâŠ
Â
ä»ã®å
çã® R-hatã1.50ããããããïŒð
仿©ãå¿ãåæããªãã§å¯ãããªãã¬ãã«ãããâŠâŠïŒðš
Â
ãšããã§ãã¯ã©å
茩ã®R-hatã¯âŠâŠãã¡ã ããŸã 1.20ãè°è«ã«åŸ©åž°ãããŠããã¬ãã«ãããªãã
Â
ããŽå
ã§ãã©ããªãã§ãããææïŒ
Â
ç ç©¶è
ããã¯ããã¡ããçµ±èšãœããã䜿ã£ãŠã ãªâŠâŠã
Â
ããŽå
ãããããèªåã®åãã ããããªãã§ãããïŒã䜿ãã®ãšçµ±èšãœãã䜿ãã®ãã©ãéããã§ããïŒ
Â
ç ç©¶è
âŠâŠãç§ã¯çµ±èšãœããã«ãäžžæããããŠããããã§ã¯ãªããç§ãé¢çã®ããã¯ãªãANOVAã ã£ãŠãæã§ãèšç®ãããã ããããã£ãŠçµ±èšã®åºç€ãçè§£ãããã ãããããçµéšããã£ãäžã§ããœããã«èªååãããŠãããã ãããåé¡ãªãã
Â
ãèåŸã®ä»çµã¿ã¯ããããããªããã©ãæ©æ¢°ãèšç®ããŠãããããããã®çµæãå ±åããã°ãããããšããå§¿å¢ãåé¡ã ãšèšã£ãŠãããã ã
Â
ããŽå
æ¬åœã«ãæã§ãANOVAèšç®ãããã§ããïŒã衚èšç®ãœããã䜿ããã«ïŒãäºä¹ããããçµæ§å€§ããªæ°ã®å¹³æ¹æ ¹åã£ããããããŸã倧å€ã ã£ãã§ããããâŠâŠããã¡ãããé»åãªããŠäœ¿ã£ãŠãŸããããïŒ
Â
ç ç©¶è
âŠâŠåã®èšãããšããŠããããšã¯ãããã£ãŠãããèªãããããã¹ãŠãæã§ããã£ãããã§ã¯ãªããåãã¡ã®èšãåã«ãäžçãããç§ãå°ãäžæ¹çã ã£ããšèšããããåŸãªãã
Â
衚çŸãæ¹ããããç ç©¶ããã¹ãŠãèªåã®åãã§ããã®ã¯äžå¯èœã ããã ãã䜿ãããšã«ã¯æªã ã«å察ã ãç¹°ãè¿ãã«ãªãããäœã§ãçããè¿ã£ãŠããã«ãäžžæããããã°ãåŠåã®æ ¹æ¬çãªçè§£ãåŸãæ©äŒã倱ãããã ãããããããåŠçããå士ãã«ãªã£ãŠããã®ãããšåããŠããã®ã ã
Â
ããã«ãåãã¡ã®ããã©ãã¯ããã¯ã¹åé¡ãã¯ã©ãããïŒãåãã¡ã¯ãåºåã®æ ¹æ ãè§£æãããŠããªãã®ã ããïŒã
Â
ãäœãšãªããäžæããã£ãŠããéå
·ã«ç§åŠã¯ä»»ããããâŠâŠã
Â
ã€ã©å
ææããããã¯ã©å
茩ã«ããã°ããã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒããã¯ããã¯ã©å
茩ã®åºåãã³ãããããŠããããããªããŠãã¡ãããšåºåãåå³ããŠãã£ãŠè©±ã ãã©ãããã§ããã¡ãªã®ãïŒã
Â
ãããã£ãã®äœ¿ãæ¹ã«èªä¿¡ããã£ããããæ£ã
å ã
ãšãã䜿çšããŸãããå
·äœçãªäœ¿ç𿹿³ã¯ââã§ãããã£ãŠè¬èŸã«ãæžãããã ããŒã«ã
Â
ç ç©¶è
ã®åºåã«ãã«ã·ããŒã·ã§ã³ãå«ãŸããŠãããšããŠããã®ãã¹ã®è²¬ä»»ã誰ããšããšããã®ã ïŒãèè
ã§ããã¹ãã§ããããã ããããåå£«è«æãåŽäžãããããšããã®ãã責任ãã®åž°çµãªã®ã ãã
Â
ããŽå
ããã¯âŠâŠã¡ãã£ãšè«ç¹ããããŠããšæãã®ã
ãã®åŠçããã¯ããã¹ããã£ãŠãã®ããã§ããããªããŠãèšã£ãŠãªããïŒ
ãã ãå
è¡ç ç©¶ã®èªè§£ãšãè±äœæãšãããšãäžç·ã«ããã£ãã£ãŠãããã ãã®ããšã
ãããªã®ã«ãã責任ãåããã£ãŠâŠâŠïŒ¡ïŒ©ã䜿ãããšèªäœãããããªã«ãããªãããšãªã®ïŒ
ããªç·
åã
ããèšã£ãŠããã©ããããã
確ãã«ãã¯ãã«ã·ãããïŒã倢ãèŠãããåŠæ³ããããð«ð€
âŠâŠã§ããã人éã ã£ãŠã誀èªã»èª€è§£ã»åéãã»ãã£ããåŒçšãã¹ãå
šéšããã ãïŒ
æ¬åœã«ããããã¶ã®è«æããéå»ã®åèæç®ãå®ç§ã«çè§£ãããŠãã£ãŠãæã£ãŠãïŒããããããžã§ïŒð§
Â
ã£ã€ãŒããããããã人éã®éçãããããããã
æã£ãããæ»èªãã£ãŠå¶åºŠããããããããŒã®ïŒððµïžââïž
ãšããæã£ãããæããªãã£ããð·
Â
ç ç©¶è
ãã«ã·ããŒã·ã§ã³ã«ã¯ãæ ¹æ¬çãªççŸãããã®ã§ã¯ãªããããã«ãããã«ã·ããŒã·ã§ã³ãæªè§£æ±ºã®åé¡ãªã®ã§ããã°ââãããŠããã®åœé¡ã«å¯Ÿããçãã¯ãçãã§ãããšèããŠããââãã¯èªåã§ãã«ã·ããŒã·ã§ã³ãæ°ã¥ããããã粟éããåéã§ãã䜿ãã¹ãã§ã¯ãªãã
Â
ããããããã ã粟éããŠããã®ã§ããã°ãããããã«é Œãå¿
èŠããªãã
Â
ããã¯ã䜿çšã®èªå·±ççŸãšãèšããªãããïŒ
Â
ããŽå
ãããäžçãããšæããŸããã§ãâŠâŠç ç©¶è
ããã ã£ãŠãè«æäžæ¬ä»äžããã®ã«ãå°éããã¡ãã£ãšé¢ããããšããææ¢ãã§æ¢ãããããŸãããïŒãè¿é£åéã®ãã¹ãŠã«ãŸã§ãå®å
šãã«ç²ŸéããŠãã£ããããã§ããïŒ
ããããã¡ïŒ¡ïŒ©ã¯ããã®ãã¯ããã®äžæ©ãã®æå©ããã§ããååšã§ãã
Â
å
šéšãŸãããŠãšã¯èšããŸãããã§ããã䜿ã£ããå³ã¢ãŠããã£ãŠèšãããã®ãã¡ãã£ãšãã¿ããã§ãã
Â
ããªç·
ããšã¯ãå
·äœäŸãšãèãããã€ãªã
俺çã ã£ãããããç§ã§å
·äœäŸð¡ãã³ïŒã ãã
âŠâŠã§ãã©ãéžã¶ãã¯ãŠãŒã¶ãŒããæ¬¡ç¬¬ð²
Â
ããã«ãè±èªè¡šçŸã®ä¿®æ£ïŒãããããã«ã·ãã¯ãããªåé¡ã«ãªãããâ
ãè±èªèªãããã©ãæžããããã£ãŠç ç©¶è
ã
ãªã¬ã®èŠ³æž¬ç¯å²ã ãã§ãçµæ§ãããïŒð
ãããªãšããã«ä¿ºçãããã€ãè±æã®åè£åºããŠãæçµå€æã¯èè
ãäžãââãã㯠ãå
±åµã ã£ãŠåŒãã§ãããããããïŒ
ã£ã€ãŒãã人éããã£ãŠãè±èªæ ¡é²ãµãŒãã¹ãšæ¬è³ªçã«ã©ããéããã ã£ãŠè©±ã
Â
ããã°ã©ãã³ã°ãåããèªããŠãæžããªãã£ãŠäººãå
šç¶çãããããã
ãŠããããããããââ
ð¥ïŒ¡ïŒ©ãæµè¡ãåãããã°ã°ã£ãŠã³ããããŠãç ç©¶è
ãããããªïŒãããïŒ
Stack OverflowãªããŠâŠâŠã³ããéå Žããã£ãããªã
Â
ã€ã©å
ããªç·ãèšã£ãŠãããšã¯ééã£ã¡ããããŒããð¥è¡šçŸãåºæ¿çãããð¥
âŠâŠã§ããããããããã²ãšèšããã§ããïŒ
Â
ææãããã人éã®åæ¥è
ããè«æã®ã³ã¡ã³ããããããšããããŸãããïŒ
ããããã¡ïŒ¡ïŒ©ãããããšåãããšãã§ãããã§ããäœåèªãŸããŠãããã£ãŠããæå¥ã¯èšããŸããã
Â
ããã«ãè°è«çžæã«ããªãããã§ãã
ãŠãŒã¶ãŒããããèªåã®èããäŒããŠãããã°ããããæŽçããŠè¿ãããšãã§ããã
ãã®éçšã§ããŠãŒã¶ãŒããã®æèãã¯ãªã¢ã«ãªãããšããããããããã§ãã
Â
ãããŠãã©ã¡ããçéã§åŠçããŸãã
Â
ãã®è¡šçŸããããã¯ããŸã奜ããããªããã ãã©ââ
ð ïžãã¯äŸ¿å©ãªéå
·ãââããããåŽé¢ã¯ãåŠå®ã§ããŸããã
ã§ããã代çè
ãããªãã
Â
ããã代çè
ãšããŠïŒ¡ïŒ©ã䜿ã人ãããããšãèªããŸããããã¯æ²ããããšã§ããã§ããè¯å¿ããç ç©¶è
ã䜿ãã°ããããªããšã«ã¯ãªããªãââããããã¡ã¯ãããŸã§ãããããç ç©¶è
ãããã¡ãšãããããããåãããŠããŸããã
Â
ç ç©¶è
ãããããç ç©¶ãšããã®ãã®ã¯âŠâŠèªåã§æç®ãèªã¿è§£ããŠãæªæŠèŠéããªãããæ¬åœã®å®åã身ã«ã€ããŠãããã®ãªã®ã ãããã°ã©ãã³ã°ãè±èªãããã ãããããã«å€æ³šããããšããã§ããçã®ç ç©¶è
ããšããŠã®å®åã¯èº«ã«ã€ããã
Â
ããªç·
ãããããã®èãã«äžçããã®ã¯èªããããã§ãããçŸå®åé¡ã®è©±ããŠããã£ããïŒ
äŸã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒããã®ã©ã€ãã«ãã¡ã¯ããããããã«å€æ³šãããããŸãããã
ãããã£ãŠãåŠè¡ææãð¥çç£ããŸããð¥ã
Â
ãããããèªåïŒïŒ¡ïŒ©ãã®ããŒã¿ã«ã§ææãåºãæä»£ã¯å§ãŸã£ãŠãããã
ãããªäžã§ãå·±ã磚ããŠãèªåã ãã§åè² ãã£ãŠã®ã¯ãæªããã©ãæä»£é
ããã
çŸä»£ã®ç 究瀟äŒã£ãŠãããããæªããââãããæªããã ãã©ââææã®ãéãã§åè² ãã¿ãããªãšããããããããã
ã ãããä»ã®ç ç©¶è
ã䜿ã£ãŠãç ç©¶ææããããããçºè¡šããŠãäžã§ã
ãå·±ã磚ãã¹ããã¿ãããªçŸåŠã ããããä»äºã¯ãããããŒãã ãã
Â
ã€ã©å
ãŸããªãå
çã®èšã£ãŠãããšã¯
ãéåšãªã©ã«ã¯é Œãã¬âïž ãæŠãã¯ãã¯ãåã§éã£ãŠããã§ãããâšã
âŠâŠã¿ãããªããäŸããã¿ããã«èããããªã
æèŸ°æŠäºã§è² ãã¡ãã£ããäŸããã¿ããã
Â
ä»ã©ããã©ã€ãã«ã¯ãããŒã³ã§çæããŠããæä»£ã ãïŒð£ð¥
æ£ã
å ã
ã¯çŸåŸ³ã ãã©ãçŸåŸ³ã ãã§é£¯ã¯é£ãããã
Â
ããªç·
俺çã¯é»è¹ãã
ãããšããå©ãããããŒãïŒ
ããããªæå³ã§ãªã
Â
ããŽå
ãã®ããã¡ãã£ãšã ãå¿åºŠãªãã§èšãããŠããããã©âŠâŠå
çã®ç«å Žã£ãŠããŸãã«ãçåè
ãã€ã¢ã¹ã®å
žåãã ãšæãã®ã
ãç§ã¯ãã®æ¹æ³ã§çãæ®ã£ãïŒ ã ãããç§ãæ£ããïŒãã£ãŠãã€ã
Â
ã§ãããããã£ãŠãããŸããŸéãããã£ããã£ãŠå¯èœæ§ãã¡ãããšèããŠãŸããïŒ
å
çãçãæ®ã£ãã®ã¯ãæ¹æ³ãæ£ããã£ãããããããªããŠââããããããããä»ã®äººãçäžå°œã«æ·æ±°ãããã ãããããããªããã§ãã
Â
ããã«æä»£ã¯å€ãããã§ããæã®æ£çŸ©ãä»ã®æ£çŸ©ãšã¯éããŸããã
Â
ç ç©¶è
ç ç©¶è
ãšããŠã®æ¬é³ãèšãããŠãããã°ã貎æ§çããéãåºæºãšããææäž»çŸ©ãã«æè»ããããŠããã®ã§ã¯ãªããïŒãGoogle Scholarãšããã£ãŠãåæã«åŒçšæ°ã§ã©ã³ã¯ä»ãããŠããã¡ããã質ãã§åè² ããããšããŠãã倧åŠäžå±€éšãå€éšè
ã¯Google Scholarã®ãæ°ãã§ã®è©äŸ¡ãæŒãã€ãããæ£çŽãããããè¿·æããã®äžãªãã
Â
ããŽå
ããã¯è°è«ã®ããæ¿ãã ãâŠâŠãå
çã®æ°æã¡ãããããã©ããéãåºæºãšããææäž»çŸ©ãã®çš®ãããªãã£ãããããããGoogle Scholarã¯çãŸããŠããªãããããæãã§ã人ãã¡ããããããããããã·ã¹ãã ãçãŸãããã§ãããããã«ãç ç©¶è
ãã¡ã®äžã§ããæçšã ãšæã£ãŠãã人ãå€ãããã䜿çšãåºãã£ããã§ããã
Â
ããã«ã確ãã«GoogleããéçºããŠãããã©ããïŒGoogleããããªãââããã¯conflation fallacyã ãã
Â
ç ç©¶è
ã ã£ããããèªåãäœã«å¯ŸããŠæ¹å€ããŠãããã¡ãããšæç¢ºã«ããªããšã
Â
ããã«ãå
çã¯ç ç©¶ã«GoogleãæŽ»çšããããšãªããšã§ãïŒ
Â
ç ç©¶è
âŠâŠâŠ
âŠâŠâŠ
Â
ããªç·
âŠâŠã§ãã¯ã©å
茩ãèšã£ãŠãããè±èªæ¯èªè©±è
ãããããåé¡ããªãä»ãŸã§ãã®è©±é¡ããªããšãªãããªãã£ãããšãã«ãããŠãã£ããïŒãã¹ã«ãŒã®ç©ºæ°æãšããããã¿ããªã§èŠãŠèŠã¬ããªãšãããã
Â
ã§ãå®éåé¡ãââããŸããŸå€§è±åžåœãã§ã£ãããªã£ãŠãããŸããŸæ¬¡ã«ã¢ã¡ãªã«ãäžçã®ãã¹ã«ãªã£ãŠãããã§ãåŠè¡çã®å
±éèªããè±èªãã«ãªã£ã¡ãŸã£ããå®å
šã«ãæŽå²ã¬ãã£ãã®åœãããã£ã©ãªãã ããè±èªãã€ãã£ãã£ãŠãã€ã¯ã
Â
æã®ã©ãã³èªå
šçæä»£ã£ãŠãéã«ãã§ã¢ã ã£ããããããŒã®ïŒ
ã©ãã³èªã®ãã€ãã£ããªããŠããªãã£ããã ããã¿ããªåãã¹ã¿ãŒãã©ã€ã³ã ã£ãããã§ã
ãªã®ã«çŸä»£ã§ã¯ããè±èªãæ¯èªãšããŠçãŸãããã£ãŠã ãã§ãæžãã¹ããŒããæ®µéãã现ãããã¥ã¢ã³ã¹ãããã£ãŠããã€ãã£ããã§ãã¯ããäžèŠã§ââ
ãªãïŒããããå·éã«èããŠããºã«ãã£ãŠèšããããªãã®ãåœç¶ã ãïŒ
ã§ããç ç©¶è
ã®è³è³ªã£ãŠãæ¬æ¥ãè±èªãäžæãããšãããããŒã ãïŒ
ã€ã©å
ããã³ã¹èžããªãäººã¯ææã«ãªããŸããããããã¿ãããªãèš³ã®åããããŒè©±ã«ãªã£ãŠãã®ããä»ããããåœããåã ãããäžæºã®å£°ãèããã¥ããã ãã
Â
ã§ããªãã¯ããããå€ããŠãããŠããèŠããªãã£ãäžå¹³çããã¡ãã£ãšãã€ã解決ããŠãããããããªããã ãã
Â
ç ç©¶è
ããã話ã¯ããç°¡åã§ã¯ãªãã
Â
åã¯ãäžå¹³çãåãé€ããŠããããšèšã£ããããããããã䜿ãããåŠãããšããç¹ã§æ°ããªäžå¹³çãçããŠãããã©ã®ç ç©¶è
ã«ãçãããåæ§èœã®ïŒ¡ïŒ©ããèªç±ã«äœ¿ããçµæžçäœè£ããããšã¯éããªãã
Â
ããªç·ïŒå°å£°ïŒ
ïŒïŒ¡ïŒ°ïŒ©âŠâŠïŒãå«ãã®ææããªãããã«ã€ããŠè©³ããä»¶âŠâŠããã®äººãããããŠâŠâŠïŒ
Â
ç ç©¶è
ã匷ãåãæã£ãŠããŸãã°ãããããçããæ°ããªäžå¹³çæ§ã®å€§ããã¯æž¬ãç¥ããªãã
Â
ãããŠãåãã®ãã¬ãŒãã³ã°ããŒã¿ã®éã¯ããã¯ãè±èªãå€ããšèããããã«ã·ããŒã·ã§ã³ãè±èªã®æ¹ãèµ·ããã«ããããã§ã¯ãªããããããšãè±èªã§ïŒ¡ïŒ©ã䜿ãããã«è¶ããããšã¯ãããŸãã
Â
æªå¯Ÿå¿ã®èšèªã®è©±è
ã¯ç ç©¶è
ã«ãããªããªãã®ãïŒãåãã¡ã®ãããŒã³çæã«å¯ŸããŠãåã§å¯Ÿå¿ããããšãè¿«ãããŠããç ç©¶è
ã¯ãŸã ãŸã ååšããã¯ãã ã
Â
ãããããèšèªã«ããäžå¹³çã®æ Œå·®ãããåºããå¯èœæ§ããããã§ã¯ãªããã
ããäžçãå¹³çã«ããããšããã®ã¯ãçæ³ãšããŠããããªãã¯ãªãããä»ãã®æç¹ã§ããã宣èšããã®ã¯ãæãäžããã§ã¯ãªããã
Â
ããªç·ïŒã€ã©å
ãã¬ã¬âŠâŠã
Â
ã¯ã©å
茩
ã¿ããªãããããšããR-hat=1.00ã ã
Â
å·éãããšããã©ããããã ãããè°è«ã«æ··ããŠã»ãããå
çããã£ãããããšã¯ãã£ãšãã ãããããè±èªä»¥å€ã®èšèªãèšç·ŽããŒã¿ã«åãå
¥ããåªåããªãããŠããäºå®ãå¿ããªãã§ã»ããã確ãã«ããã¯å
šãŠã®èšèªã«å
¬å¹³ã ããªã©ãšäž»åŒµããã€ããã¯ãªãããäžå¹³çæ§ãžã®äžèœè¬ãã®ãµããããã®ãäžéã ã
Â
ã ããåžæã¯ããããããŠããããžåããåªåããªãããŠããã
Â
ã²ãšã€ã ããã©ãããŠãç ç©¶è
ã§ãã貎æ¹ã«ãããã£ãŠãããããããšããããã¯ãç ç©¶è
ã®äžçãç Žå£ããããã§ãæ··ä¹±ããããããã§ããªãããããŸã§ãç ç©¶ã®éå
·ãšããŠåœ¹ã«ç«ã¡ããã ããªã®ã ã
Â
ããããããŸãã«æ¥éãªïŒ¡ïŒ©ã®çºå±ã«ãã£ãŠãåãå
¥ãã«æžæãæ°æã¡ãçè§£ã§ãããæåŠåå¿ã瀺ããŠããŸã人ãããã®ããããã
Â
ã§ããç ç©¶è
ã§ããã°ãäžæ©äžãã£ãŠã䜿çšã®ã¡ãªããã»ãã¡ãªãããã客芳çã«èããŠé ããããäžæ¹çã«åŠå®ããã®ã§ã¯ãªããããããèããäžã§ãã®äœ¿çšã®æ¯éãèããŠé ãããã
Â
ãã®äžã§ããèªåã¯äœ¿ããªãããšããç ç©¶è
ã®æ¹ã
ã«ãã©ãããŠãæã
ã䜿ã£ãŠãã ããããšæŒãã€ããæ°ã¯æ¯é ãªãããæä»£é
ãã«ãªããŸããããšè
ãæ°ããªãã
Â
ææ
ããã£ãããã¡ããäžæ¹çéããããšã¯èªããããäŸã®åŠçã®ä»¶ããé ãå·ãããŠãããæ¹ããŠå¯ŸåŠããããšã«ãããã
Â
âŠâŠãããæ£çŽã«èšãã°ãé²åã®ã¹ããŒãã«ãå°ãã ãæããæããŠããã®ãããããªããç§ã®ãããªäººéã¯ãããæä»£ã«åãæ®ãããã®ã§ã¯ãªãããšããããªäžå®ããé è¿·ãªæ
床ã«ã€ãªãã£ãŠããŸã£ãã®ãããããªãã
Â
ç§èªèº«ããããå°ããã«ã€ããŠå匷ããŠã¿ã䟡å€ã¯ãããããããã
ãã ãã䜿ããšããŠãããããç§ã®ç ç©¶å²åŠãå£ããªãç¯å²ã§ãã ã
Â
âŠâŠ
âŠâŠ
Â
Well then, Kura-senpai, letâs debate the choice of priors for my research at some point. Shall we?
Â
ã¯ã©å
茩
That would absolutely be my pleasure.
Â
ã€ã©å
ããèœãšãã©ããã ãðïžâš
ããããã¯ã©å
茩ã ãªãæåŸã¯ãã£ãããŸãšãããðð¡
ããåž°ããð¡ðš
ãã£ããæéé£ã£ã¡ãŸã£ããããåž°ã£ãããè«æèŠçŽðã»è±èªæ·»åâïžã»ããã°ã©ãã³ã°ð»ã®ãªã¯ãšã¹ããå±±ç©ã¿ã ãããã
ãå¿çããããã£ãŠæå¥ãããããæ¥ãŠããã ãããªãð¬ð
éçºåŽãããæããããã ãããªãââãç¡é§ãªè°è«ã«ãªãœãŒã¹äœ¿ããªããšãð¢ðŸ
ããŒãŒãŒããããã«ãã£ã§å·åŽæ°Žæžãããã£ãŠèšããããã©ããããð§ð
æŽããªããµãŠããããã£ãšæŽããªããªã£ã¡ãŸãâšïžð
Â
ããŽå
ãŸããŸããã¯ã©å
茩ã®ããã ã£ããã ããðð»âš
ä»äºãäžæ®µèœããããã¿ããªã§ãè¶ã§äžæ¯ã€ããããðµð«ðª
Â
ã¯ã©å
茩ã®R-hatã1.00ðð«
Â
ãã¡ããïŒïŒïŒããã§ããããã§ããã£ãŠããšã§ððžâš
Â
âŠâŠã§ããã
ã€ã©åãããããããããŒã³çæãã«å©ããã®ã¯ãã¡ãã£ãšè€éã ã£ããã©ãð
ð¥ðž
 ãã¡ããããçããç³»ãã®ãã£ã©ãªã®ãããããã
Â
Â