Sensitivity analysis - Base scenario (CSIS derived)

# Baseline parameters taken from CSIS "The First Battle of the Next War" (Jan 2023)

# Selected baseline values (documented in report):

# - Base scenario landed battalions: 37 -> final strength 30 (attrition ~19%)

# - Optimistic scenario landed battalions: 22 -> final strength 22 (attrition ~0% for simplicity)

# - Pessimistic scenario landed battalions: 60 -> final strength 43 (attrition ~28.3%)

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# We'll run a simple sensitivity model: final_strength = landed * (1 - attrition_rate)

# We'll vary three parameters by +/-20%:

# 1) Amphibious lift capacity -> scales 'landed' linearly.

# 2) Missile/attrition effectiveness -> scales attrition_rate multiplicatively.

# 3) Japan Out (operational delay) -> modeled as reducing attrition effectiveness (i.e., decreasing attrition_rate by a factor).

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