2016数学建模美赛总结反思

本文主要介绍了2016年美国大学生数学建模竞赛的总结和反思,强调了前期建模储备、人员分工合作、建模过程以及对数学建模的理解。前期准备包括软件熟练掌握、数学知识积累、建模算法学习、资料获取能力提升等。人员分工建议为数学员、程序员和写手,每个角色都有明确的任务。建模过程中,关键步骤包括理解题意、寻找资料、模型构建与优化、论文整理等。作者认为数学建模是应用数学解决问题的过程,需要良好的数学、编程和文档整理能力。下一步的努力方向包括深入学习数学模型、掌握更多数学工具、研究算法实现和获奖论文,以及提高写作和英语水平。

一.前期准备(建模储备)

1. 工欲善其事,必先利其器。

各种软件的成功安装,团队成员软件版本一致性。

软件(Excel、matlab、word、latex、WPS等等)熟练掌握。

2. 必要数学知识

让你的数学知识足够让你进行知识的获取与获取知识后接下去的快速学习。

各种算法。

3. 建模算法与编程知识(思想的具体实现)

了解各项算法。

各种算法以及编程具体实现,提前将代码准备好。

知道何种问题用何种算法,编程可以直接拿来用。

4. 资料获取能力(文件检索)

各种网站与论坛(数学中国、校苑数模等)的资源的利用。

(可以建群讨论)(注册收集体力从而下载东西)

Google搜索引擎的真正使用方法,资源搜索方法。

中国知网等学术论文获取方法。

谷歌学术,百度学术。

5. 建立模型能力(思想)

建立模型的能力才是整个数学建模的核心,模型从分析到实现是需要过程的。团队可以一起讨论,相信自己,结合找到的学术论文进行初步建模构想,再搜集资料。

获取知识,搜索资料,最好在前人学术研究的基础上加以改进。利用好学术论文。

建立模型不是一蹴而就的,团队分析,最后一人总结数学思想建模,可以分模块分部建立,有一人编程实现。

6. 文档写作能力(格式)

充分研究以前优秀作文。格式,语言使用。

对自己模型的表达。

论文010203按时间,改一次,另存为一次。

7. 对所参加比赛要求与评判的了解

将比赛需要的所有东西准备好。

对时间的把握。

对比赛评判习惯的把握。

提前了解题型,早做准备。

参赛队应该尽可能多的研读和实践历年获奖论文及其中的模型和求解算法,并进行一次全真模拟训练磨合队伍。

二.人员分工合作

数学员:数学方法与思想

程序员:精通算法的实现,调试程序

写手:论文的实现

数学模型的组队非常重要,三个人的团队一定要有分工明确而且互有合作,三个人都有其各自的特长,这样在某方面的问题的处理上才会保持高效率。

三个人的分工可以分为这几个方面:

1.数学员:

学习过很多数模相关的方法、知识,无论是对实际问题还是数学理论都有着比较敏感的思维能力,知道一个问题该怎样一步步经过化简而变为数学问题,而在数学上又有哪些相关的方法能够求解,他可以不会编程,但是要精通算法,能够一定程度上帮助程序员想算法,总之,数学员要做到的是能够把一个问题清晰地用数学关系定义,然后给出求解的方向;

2.程序员:

负责实现数学员的想法,因为作为数学员,要完成大部分的模型建立工作,因此调试程序这类工作就必须交给程序员来分担了,一些程序细节程序员必须非常明白,需要出图,出数据的地方必须能够非常迅速地给出。

3.写手:

在全文的写作中,数学员负责搭建模型的框架结构,程序员负责计算结果并与数学员讨论,进而形成模型部分的全部内容,而写手要做的。就是在此基础之上,将所有的图表,文字以一定的结构形式予以表达,注意写手时刻要从评委,也就是论文阅读者的角度考虑问题,在全文中形成一个完整地逻辑框架。同时要做好排版的工作,最终能够把数学员建立的模型和程序员算出的结果以最清晰的方式体现在论文中。因为论文是评委能够唯一看到的成果,所以写手的水平直接决定了获奖的高低,重要性也不言而喻了。三个人至少都能够擅长一方面的工作,同时相互之间也有交叉,这样,不至于在任何一个环节卡壳而没有人能够解决。因为每一项工作的工作量都比较庞大,因此,在准备的过程中就应该按照这个分工去准备而不要想着通吃。这样才真正达到了团队协作的效果。

三.数学建模过程

1. 看到问题、分析问题、理解题意。

2. 寻找资料,查找相关知识。

3. 思考可使用算法模型,想出问题解决思路。

4. 列出模型框架。

5. 进行模型与算法的具体实现过程。

6. 对模型的优化与检查。

7. 论文的整理。

8. 摘要论文的批判与检查。

9. 提交。

四.对数学建模的理解

利用数学方法解决实际问题,对数学知识的了解与熟悉,快速查找学术知识并运用。

论文的整理,让他人理解。

数学好:数学思想。

编程好:调试程序与算法的实现。

整理能力:文档表述清晰。

五.我下一步的努力

1. 数学模型的了解与掌握:

《数学模型》 姜启源版

《数学建模与数学实验》 赵静版

(认真读完上述两本数学建模书籍)

各种网络上找到的书籍,关于算法与模型的简单看看。

2. 各种数学工具的安装与使用

Matlab的安装与使用

Excel的进一步了解

Word的进一步熟悉

各种我不知道的数学工具:spss,latex……

3. 算法的掌握与实现

将看过算法都整理起来,便于比赛时直接用。

4、多看与研究比赛获奖论文

研究思想,感受过程。

5. 研究模板,写作排版与论文整理方法

6. 万事俱备,自己亲身实践数学建模


 最后,给自己定一个终极目标:“三好学生”,数学好,编程好,英语好。

Our planet is getting thirstier and thirstier. Water scarcity has become an increasingly hard but urgent problem. To make contributions to solve the water problems, we proposed a metric model to identify the ability of each country to manage water scarcity, and offered solutions to a country considered water over-loaded. First we developed our metric, Total Scarcity Metric, and divided it into Physical Scarcity Metric (affected by environmental factors and population) and Economic Scarcity Metric (affected by social factors other than population) by the two causes of water scarcity. The detailed factors were selected to make a difference. We made some adjustments to an indicator we found widely-used in the literatures, and determine Physical Scarcity Metric based on it. For Economic Scarcity Metric, we built a factor model with its weight calculated by Grey Relational Analysis. To combine them, we introduced a parameter  revealing the relative emphasis between physical scarcity and economic scarcity of each country. Its value varies by countries, so it’s more proper to discuss it in the country level. Then we used data from 83 countries to verify our model, and found a similar water scarcity distribution compared to UN’s “World Scarcity Map”. By providing sensitivity analysis on  ,we indicated the importance of its selection for each country. Based on that result, we chose Pakistan for further analysis. First we discussed the possible factors accounting for its current water situation, including 2 environmental factors and 5 social factors. We made it clear how and what kind of scarcity they affect. To forecast the water situation in 2030 by our metric, we determined the predicted value of influential factors by Grey Forecasting Model and Regression Analysis with little error. We found Pakistan less susceptible to economic scarcity but more to physical scarcity at that time. Its total water scarcity will be alleviated. Next, we devised an intervention plan to improve the ability of Pakistan to deal with its water scarcity. The plan is made up of physical scarcity plan and economic scarcity plan. Considering the impact of each policy, we analyzed the overall strengths and weaknesses in a larger context. To see how our plan performs, we ran our model again under some hypothesized settings. Although Pakistan performed better with our plan and its economic scarcity can be alleviated, it will still face water scarcity, especially physical water scarcity. In conclusion, Pakistan still has a long way to go.
summary: In this paper, we establish a regression model based on the passing network to evaluate the influence of team structure strategy and opponents’ counter-strategy on the match results. Fortask1,wefirstlistsomeHuskiesmatchstatisticsforthisseasonandanalyzetheteamin brief. Secondly, we construct a passingnetwork based on the number of passes and visualizes the passing network diagram of three games under three different coaches. We use these three diagrams to describe and compare the changes in Huskies’ strategies. After that, we identify network patterns of dyadic and triadic configurations and count 15 kinds of these two configurations in the above three matches, reflecting the structural indicators of the passing network. We also explore time scale and micro scale by giving the change of the team’s centroid over time in the first match and the Huskies’ 4 positions heat map over the season. For task 2, we construct the regression model not only introducing the basic data representing Huskies’ and opponents’ ability, but also extracting six independent variables from the indicators of the passing network into the model. Considering opponents’ counter-strategies, we also introduce the product interaction term between opponents’ data and network structure indicators. Through the training of regression model, we can judge whether the independent variables introduced have influence, what kind of influence and how much influence the independent variables introduced have on the result of the match. For task 3, by bringing in data for training, the model leaves 10 variables including interactionterms. Inordertoverifytheaccuracyofthemodel,weuseLeaveOneOutcrossvalidation, andthepredictedaccuracyoftheraceresultreached71.05%. Then,basedonthetrainedmodel, we point out the effective structural strategies Huskies currently have, such as the strong connection between the core players. Meanwhile, we also give specific advice for Huskies team to improve team success, such as the emphasis on triadic configurations among players. Fortask4,weextendthemodelappliedtohuskiestoallteamworkscenariosandintroduce the IPOI model. The IPOI model conducts multi-level induction of influencing factors and selection of assessment indicators from the four aspects of team input, process, output and reinput, taking into account team construction, operation, management, feedback and other aspects. WeconsiderthattheexistingHuskiemodelisprogresspartofIPOImodel,andweadd the evaluation system of input, output and reinput part, taking the university scientific research team modeling as an example. Insummary,ourmodelispracticalandreliableforhandlingnetwork-basedteamworkproblems in society. Keywords: football strategy, network science, regression analysis, IPOI model.
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