Wednesday, October 20, 2010

2010 NCAA Football Week 8

Not a great week for predictions, but a great week for Texas football. I think I learned enough from the weekend to do a much better job this week.

A&M is dead. They quit on their coach and their fans at Kyle Field in the beatdown against Mizzou.
OSU won't go quietly this year and their offense is good enough to win most games.

Big XII Games (50-11):
Texas over Iowa State
Tech over Colorado in Boulder as Dan Hawkins puts the final nail in his own coffin
Oklahoma State hands Nebraska their second consecutive loss in Stillwater
A&M over Kansas in the Big 12 Pillow Fight of the Week

I'm not sure what to make of the K-State/Baylor battle for bowl eligibility. Baylor has a great offense and RG3 will give the Wildcat defense fits, just as T-Magic did. However, Baylor's defense isn't even close to matching Nebraska's D-unit. A quick check of the losses and wins by both teams reveals that when Baylor rushes for less than 100 yards it lost and when K-State lost it gave up lots of yards on the ground. Baylor has more pressure on it because of its remaining schedule (K-State has games against Colorado and UNT left). I think Baylor runs enough against K-State to get to 6-2 and earn bowl eligibility for the first time in forever.

The Game of the Week: BCS #1 Oklahoma versus BCS #11 Missouri. A quick analysis of OU's close wins shows it has a hard time against the passing game. The same shows that Mizzou struggled against teams that can move the ball on the ground, giving up over 200 yards rushing in their two closest wins. Missouri is for real, but I think OU is for realer. The line of OU by 3 seems about right. But I wouldn't be shocked if Mizzou pulls out the win at home to run the streak of #1 teams losing to 3. Mizzou's D hasn't faced anything like the OU offense, and their offense hasn't faced anything like OU's defense. My guess is OU 34, Mizzou 24.


On to the National Games (36-13):
Oregon over UCLA
TCU by 21 over Air Force as voters get to compare TCU to OU
Michigan State over the nerds from Northwestern
Alabama over a reeling Tennessee squad
Utah moves to 7-0 over CSU
Ohio State rebounds versus Purdue
Stanford by 31 over Wazzu
Washington loses to Arizona on the road as Jake Locker has a little less Hyde than Jekyll
West Virginia over a plucky Syracuse team
Vandy bows out of the SEC East race with a home loss to South Carolina
Arkansas over Ole Miss
Miss State over UAB to move to 6-2
Va Tech pours it on against the Not-so-Fighting David Cutcliffes

Auburn over LSU. LSU's offense won't be able to keep up with Auburn's offense as the clock strikes 12 against The Hat and Auburn wins the Battle of SEC Tigers.

I'm not sure who to pick in the Iowa - Wisconsin game. But I'll go with Iowa since they're the home team. That seems to be a big deal in the Big Ten.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Texas-Nebraska Review

So, I was unable to watch the game live on Saturday. I got to watch it on the DVR. I must say it was an enjoyable experience not having to watch the commercials.

If you take a look at my column from last week, you'll see that the Longhorns did exactly what I asked them to do. The offense didn't turn the ball over, the defense didn't sustain Nebraska drives with dumb penalties and, although Curtis Brown did drop the ball on special teams, he recovered it.

What Texas did right:
1. Greg Davis finally opened up the playbook and let Gilbert do some things with his legs. I swear I heard the announcers say "Great play call by Greg Davis." Buy a generator, stock up on water and non-perishables, because the end is near.
2. We ran the ball effectively and kept the backs fresh. Garrett also had time to throw the ball. Add those up and you've got great offensive line play. Jared Crick and Co. didn't have their names called a lot.
3. Won the 3rd down battle. Nebraska had several third-and-longs they couldn't convert. They missed two big tackles on Nebraska's first scoring drive, but they got off the field.
4. Not calling a timeout with 0:01 left on the clock. Mack Brown showed his class where someone like, say, Nick Saban or Urban Meyer, would not.

What Nebraska did wrong:
1. Dropped balls. 8 of them according to the ESPN stats crew working the game. At least half of those were from Niles Paul, the supposed "next level" and "sure-handed" star wide receiver. Two would've been touchdowns and two would've at least put Nebraska inside the 5 yard line. "Sure-handed" Rex Burkhead alligator-armed a sure TD with no one within 10 yards of him on the 2-yard line.
2. Ten penalties for 94 yards.
3. Six fumbles, with one lost. At least two of the fumbles they recovered were on third-and-short and stalled drives.
4. A curious decision by Bo Pelini to bench Taylor Martinez. Sure he wasn't making the correct read on all plays, but all the fumbles and dropped passes didn't help. You've gotta dance with who brung ya. Zac Lee, while he made the right reads, isn't nearly as fast as T-Magic. I think with time that Martinez would've read the defense better and would've made Texas pay.
5. The crowd let the team down. As Mack Brown said, "But I could feel some of their fans, when we got up 10-0 thinking, 'You've got to be kidding, not again.'" I could tell that after we made that figgie to go up just 3-0, it got quieter. But when we followed up Roy Helu, Jr.'s fumble with that TD from Gilbert, it got real quiet.

What Texas did wrong:
1. We dropped the passes too. James Kirkendoll bobbled the go route deep in the end zone. Welcome Back Kirky! Malcolm Williams dropped the out route.
2. I can't blame Malcolm's drop all on him though, because Garrett just isn't an accurate passer. He lobs when he should flick. He holds the ball too long and throws behind receivers. There was that one play deep in our own territory where Fozzy ran an outlet and GG just tossed it at his feet with lots of running room in front of him.
3. That pooch punt. Mack went to the bucket one too many times. Credit Nebraska with studying the film and being ready. Here's betting we get that puppy out-of-bounds next time.

So the sky isn't really falling. Greg Davis called the game as if his job depended on it, well, because maybe it did. There's new life. The only game that looks really scary after this past weekend's games is Oklahoma State. But then again, we own them. So we've got 9-3 if we lose to OSU, and 10-2 if we win that game. Much better outlook than two games ago.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

2010 NCAA Football Week 7

So, Chris was right about the Ohio State-Indiana game. I was wrong.

I got it back on track in the Big XII with a 5-1 record, with my lone loss the decision to go with Baylor over Tech. Do I regret it? Not really. They had a great chance to win that game. I now sit at 47-8 for the year.

As for this week's games?
Kansas State big over KU to show last week was a fluke.
Does Mizzou go into Kyle Field and come back home with a win? I'm not so sure. It depends on how much Jerrod Jekyll can contain Jerrod Hyde. I think A&M ekes out a win as the 12th Man shakes up the Tigers in their first road game of the season.
Baylor over CU in Boulder to move within one win of bowl eligibility.
OU handily over Iowa State
Not sure what to make of the OSU-Tech game. OSU will be without 2 receivers, including Henry Anyiam, a vital part of their offense. How will Tech fare without suspended defensive star Scott Smith? With a rousing performance by the Tech crowd, the Pokes leave Lubbock with their first loss of the season.

And the game of the millennium for the Nebraska faithful. Obviously, Texas hasn't held up our end of the bargain, what with the two losses and all. What will this game be like? Let's just say that NU might well put up 300+ rushing yards and 45+ points on our defense. We have never defended the option well and Saturday will be no exception. Our offense simply cannot turn the ball over, our defense cannot sustain drives with stupid penalties and our special teams CANNOT DROP THE STINKING FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!! Nebraska gets its revenge 48-23. Huck the Cornfuskers.

As for the Top 25 National games last week. A 4-4 disaster brings me back down to earth at 28-10. Unfortunately, I don't have a bye week to work out the kinks, so I'll have to make some half-time adjustments.
West Virginia over South Florida
Florida State 41-21 over BC
Sparty over the Fighting Ron Zooks to stay unbeaten
Iowa over Michigan 21-20.
Auburn controls the clock with a grinding running game to tame the Hogs 28-24.
Oh BYU. Why exactly did y'all decide to go independent? You haven't exactly been world-beaters this year. And TCU is going to lay the wood in a 56-17 beat-down.
Does South Carolina have a let-up against UK? It's not outside the realm of possibility. But UK doesn't have the firepower to hang.
Florida can't lose three games in a row, including 2 at home, right? Well if Texas can... Mississippi State doesn't have quite the defense that LSU does, but it does have a better offense, thanks to departed UF OC Dan Mullen. I think the Gators give The Swamp a W this week.
Can Arizona take care of Wazzu? I think it'll be a 35-31 victory by the visitors of UofA.
Ohio State 38-20 over Wisconsin.
'Bama bounces back over Ole Miss.

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

2010 NCAA Football Week 6

Ouch. I took a beating last week.
2-3 in the Big XII and 6-3 in the National Games, dropping my records to 42-7 and 24-6, respectively.

Time for a bounce-back.

Big XII:
Nebraska over K-State, but not by a wide margin. I'm thinking 24-14.
OSU pounding ULaLa
Dare I say Baylor over Tech? I dare!
Arkansas over A&M 35-14.
Mizzou over the did-the-fans-really-tear-down-the-goalposts-after-beating-a-1-and-4-team?CU Buffs.
Utah over Iowa State.

And last, Bye Week over Texas 21-20. Seriously? I'm encouraged that there's still some fight left in the dog, but we can't keep killing ourselves with stupid penalties and muffed punts. And get DJ Monroe and Marquise Goodwin in the game more. I don't care if they don't know the offense. Catch ball. Run fast. Not that hard. And why can't the receivers run their routes past the sticks? If it's fourth-and-five, don't run a 4-yard square-in John Chiles! I'm calling out receivers coach Bobby Kennedy. Greg Davis will need a moving buddy.

As for the National Games:
Ohio State in a squeaker over Indiana. Part of me wants to call the upset here, but the game is in the Horseshoe, so I'll give the Buckeyes the benefit of the doubt.
'Bama all over South Carolina
Oregon hangs 65 on Wazzu
Arizona over Oregon State
Florida over the Bayou Bungals in The Swamp 21-13.
Stanford over USC
Miami over Florida State
And the toughest game to pick: #17 Michigan State versus #18 Michigan in The Big House. It's going to be another who-has-the-ball-last kind of game. Part of me really likes Sparty, but the Denard Robinson Experience has been unstoppable as long as he stays in the game, which might be a concern with the MSU linebackers. If Robinson was just a runner, I'd give the edge to the boys in green, but he is an efficient little passer. For this reason, I'm going with the Maize and Blue in a 45-42 shootout. Whither Big Ten defenses?

Friday, October 01, 2010

2010 NCAA Football Week 5b

As pointed out by the comment today, I whiffed on both the outcome and location of last night's OSU-A&M game.

In my defense, we've had ISO audits all week.

As for last week's picks, well there's no defense. I went 7-1 for the Big XII, with the lone loss by my butter-fingered Longhorns, bringing my overall conference record to 40-4. I think that game was perhaps the Abomination that causes Desolation. Okay, in the grand scheme of things, not that bad, but a bad portend for what's to come in conference play. And besides the Horns going down, I was nowhere close on the points predictions for OU and Nebraska.

For this weeks games:
I already lost the A&M pick. (Poooooooor A-ggies!) Apparently Jerrod Johnson wanted to outdo Garrett Gilbert.

Baylor over Kansas
Georgia over Colorado in Boulder. It's amazing what having AJ Green back will do for the 'Dogs.
Tech over a frisky Iowa State team.

And the Red River Rivalry...the second of a three-game losing streak. Listen friends, UCLA put up 27 yards on 5/9 passing. They pretty much completely eschewed the air attack, wisely taking the game out of Kevin Prince's incapable hands, and just ran the ball down our throats. Why we didn't play man-to-man on the outside and stack 9 in the box is beyond me. Now, Bobby Stoops won't go to such an extreme, but he will find ways to get Demarco Murray the ball: zone reads, screen passes, flare passes/bubble screens and vertical routs. You thought our D was winded at half-time of the UCLA game, baby you ain't seen nothin' yet. If we turn the ball over like we did last week, it's going to be much, much uglier. Assuming we don't play hot potato with the pigskin, I think we'll keep the margin of defeat under three touchdowns, say 28-13. So let's take a look at the rest of the schedule with the date, opponent and record after that game:
10/16 @ Nebraska, 3-3
10/23 vs Iowa State, 4-3
10/30 vs Baylor, 5-3
11/6 @ K-State, 5-4
11/13 vs OSU, 5-5
11/20 vs FAU, 6-5
11/25 vs A&M, 6-6
That's pretty much the worst-case scenario. Nebraska will destroy us. Baylor will give us trouble with RG3. We visit a K-State squad that's probably 6-2 and brimming with confidence and with Joe Thomas killing it at running back. OSU will not lose this year if up by 21 points. A&M at least scored 35 points in a losing effort on the road while turning the ball over 5 times.

Not good times friends. Not good times. But if this is what it takes to finally get Greg Davis fired, I will suffer through it.

On to the national games. A 9-1 record boosts me to 18-3 for the year as the Gamecocks spit the bit. As for this week:
Miami over Clemson
Ohio State over Illinois
Michigan outpointing Indiana
LSU 13-9 over Tennessee
Michigan State in a mild upset over Wisconsin
NC State over Va Tech by 3
Ineligible USC over Washington
#1 Bama over #7 Florida, but not without a fight
Penn State stealing a victory over Iowa on the road

The Oregon Ducks versus the Stanford Cardinal in Autzen Stadium. The question really isn't who's going to win, but which garish uni the Ducks will pull out for this game. They're pretty unbeatable in Eugene, but the Fighting Jim Harbaughs aren't necessarily chopped liver. Oregon's QB has gone through nonconference largely untested. If the Ducks turn the ball over like they did against ASU, Stanford will step on their throats and not let up. This game will come down to who has the ball last. Speed kills, and Oregon has plenty of it. But speed does nothing for you if it's on the sideline. Stanford will grind the clock and it's defense will make some stops. I say the scoreboard explodes with a 56-45 Oregon win.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

2010 NCAA Football Week 5a

A&M over OSU at Kyle Field.
Expanded picks before Saturday's games coming later.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

2010 NCAA Football Week 4

After a late switch of the Hawaii-Colorado game, I went 12-0 in the Big XII, bringing my season record to 33-3. Special thanks to Mizzou and A&M for finally waking up in the 2nd half. I thought TCU-Baylor would be close, but boy was I wrong.

For the national games, I went 4-1 with the Iowa loss to bring those picks to 9-2. Not bad.

Big XII Games:
K-State over UCF
Mizzou in another squeaker over Miami (OH)
OU big over Cincy on the road...I'm thinking half a hundred
Iowa State over UNI
Nebraska scores 70 on South Dakota State?
KU over NMSU at home by 10
Baylor over Rice on the road
Texas way over UCLA

A couple of notes on the Texas season so far. I have the Big 12 going Nebraska, OU, UT. The Cornhuskers have been the most consistent so far and OU has the higher profile victory over FSU. But, and this is a huge BUT, the Texas defense is SICK!!


National Games
Miami over Pitt
'Bama crushes Arkansas as Ryan Mallett gets picked twice and sacked five times
Stanford destroys Notre Dame as Touchdown Jesus cries as the Irish start 1-3
Penn State hands Temple (TEMPLE!) their first loss of the season
Florida over Kentucky at The Swamp
Boise over Oregon State by 27 on the Smurf Turf
TCU by 31 over SMU
LSU by 9 over WVU, the difference being the Bayou Bengals defense
Oregon only wins by 23 over Arizona State in Tempe
And the hardest to pick: South Carolina versus Auburn on The Plains. The spread is Auburn by 3 over the other USC. I just don't see it. I think that the Cocks harass Cam Newton. Sure he'll break off a couple of runs when avoiding pressure, but the D keeps him bottle up for the most part. Take the Under (O/U 46) with South Carolina over Auburn 19-13.

Some national rankings for your pleasure. My Top 5...
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. Nebraska

If Texas were to play TCU, whether here, there or Jerry World, I'm thinking we'd lose 27-17.