With the Cubs and Diamondbacks winning this afternoon, the Cubs have clinched a wild card berth even though the Padres, with a better record, have not. That is due to the tie-breaker rules, where if certain teams are tied, the Cubs always come out on top.
With the White Sox clinching a playoff spot, we could have an L series! Note the Guardians have a higher winning percentage than Chicago, but have not clinched either.
The White Sox visit the Royals at 2 PM, Chicago needing a win in a hope of tying the Indians for the AL Central lead. Chicago holds he tie breaker, having taken seven of thirteen from the Guadians.
Cleveland plays in Boston this evening, facing the tough Ranger Suarez.
The Mariners need to win every game to keep hope alive for an AL West title. They get to go against the Angels in the final four games, which gives them hope. Meanwhile, the Rangers finish their series hosting the Mets, and the Astros start a series with the Athletics.
The Brewers go for their 100th win against the Phillies, who have to look over their shoulders at the Diamondbacks. Arizona visits the Rockies in an afternoon game.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Arizona needs to run the table to have a chance at a wild card, and they get to do that against the worst team in the majors in the best park for hitters in the majors. You might wish to pick your favorite Diamondbacks batter today.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
Down weighting the opposition pitcher, the NN pops Arraez to the top of the list.
The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:
The LR agrees on Arraez as the top pick. That make Arraez the consensus top pick with Moreno the double down.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
The injured Rafael Devers of the Giants remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres ranks second after a three for five with a double in a 5-1 win over the Dodgers. The win breaks the three-way tie for the NL Wild Card, putting the Padres in the home field slot for the Wild Card Round. Randy Arozarena of the Mariners went one for three with two walks and scored the winning run in a 6-5, ten inning win against the Astros. Seattle, ten games under .500, can still make the playoffs if they sweep their final four games and Houston and Texas each lose all their games, as Seattle holds the three-way tie breaker.
In that same game, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros moved into fifth place with a two for two, including a double and a walk. Alvarez likely won’t win the triple crown, as he trails Pete Alonso of the Orioles by eight RBI.
Elly De La Cruz sits in fourth place after an 0 for 4 in a 3-2, 10 inning Braves win.
Ben Rice of the Yankees posted the highest game score of the day, an 82. He went three for four with a walk and two home run in a 9-2 win over the Rays. That created a four-way tie for the AL home run lead, with Rice, Alvarez, Alonso, and Junior Caminero of the Rays, all with 41 homers.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
I’m sure this video of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. talking about being paid for what he did in the past, not what he’ll do in the future is making the rounds:
I have two caveats here:
If Vlad really said this, I suspect there will be a huge backlash.
The Rays clinched the AL East on Monday and own the top seed in the American League. At the moment, the Brewers hold a one-game lead over the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. This alignment does a good job of arguing against MLB’s notion that a salary cap is needed to level the playing field. If we wind up with a Rays-Brewers World Series, the point will be even stronger.
There are lots of ways to in in baseball. The Brewers and Rays employ front offices just as good as the Dodgers, and probably better than the Yankees. It takes more work for to build a winner than it takes for the Dodgers and Yankees, because in the end LA and NY can throw money at problems. What all the top organizations do (I’ll put the Braves, Astros, and Guardians in that group as well), is finding front office talent that can find on-field talent.
Yes, even with great talent acquisition, teams like the Dodgers and Yankees will win more often. A lot of money for MLB comes out of those two markets, so it’s not necessarily a bad thing.
I suspect a salary floor with a more even distribution of local revenue does more to get teams even than a cap. Moving more money to younger players works as well, as we’ve seen great things from rookies since the bonus money was put in place. I would think that the extra money might flow that way.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Diaz produces a high BA for this ERA without walking much, and striking out at a rate also low for this era. Kirby is also a low walk, low K pitcher, so the two match nicely. Diaz is six for 22 against Kirby, with no extra base hits and no walks. He did strike out seven times. Note that Alvarez is also six for 22 against Kirby, but in 24 PA, so Diaz has a higher hit average.
Note that Toronto and Baltimore play a double header today, so be careful picking from those games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
The Rays clinched the AL East with a 6-1 win in game two of the doubleheader against the Yankees Monday night. With New York owning the top wild card slot, neither team has a lot of play for right now. We’ll see if Tampa Bay rests their players.
The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:
Diaz and Gonzales tie for the consensus top pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Elly De La Cruz of the Reds posted a game score of 73 on Tuesday, the fourth highest of the day to propel him to second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for three with two walks and a home run in a 4-0 win over the Braves. At seasonal age 24 he upped both his OBP and slugging percentage from good to great, and produced the second six fWAR season of his career. He’s set up to enjoy a spectacular prime. He trails the injured Rafael Devers by 5 1/2 points in the rankings.
Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres ranks third after posting a one for four in a 7-0 Dodgers win. It seems no matter how much Los Angeles is hurting, they still keep winning. We have a massive tie for the NL Wild Card, all three teams at 87-70, and the Padres lose all the tie-breakers in that scenario.
Randy Arozarena of the Mariners sits fourth. He reached base three times in the 7-0 Astros win, walking twice and getting hit by a pitch. He now owns a .379 OBP. The Astros move into a tie with the Rangers for first place in the AL West, with Houston holding the tie-breaker.
Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs ranks fifth after a two for four with two walks and a double in an 8-2, twelve innings Marlins win.
The best game score score of the day came off the bat of Randal Grichuk of the White Sox, an 81. He went four for five with two doubles and a home run in a 14-11 win over the Royals. Chicago is on the verge of clinching a playoff slot. The Blue Jays and Orioles play a doubleheader today, and splitting the pair, or a White Sox win eliminates both teams. That would leave the Rangers and Astros as their only competition. Grichuk supplied a lot of power since joining the team this season, with a .608 slugging percentage. Thirty seven of his 68 hits went for extra bases.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Drew Rasmussen of the Rays owns a no-hitter through six innings against the Yankees. He walked two and struck out ten so far with 93 pitches thrown. Given his injury history, I suspect he will not be allowed to finish this game.
The Rays lead the game 1-0. A win for the Rays would clinch the AL East title, matching Mike Scott and the Astros in 1986.
Update: The Rays score three runs in the top of the seventh inning, the Heliot Ramos leads off the bottom of the seventh inning with a double. There will be no no-hitter clinch tonight.
It’s a good day for interim managers as the Mets sign Andy Green to a three-year contract. Green had not wanted the job permanently, but the Mets convinced him otherwise:
âAndy has connected with and pushed our players to perform, despite the disappointment of the season,â Mets owners Steve and Alex Cohen said in the statement. âOver the last several months he has brought discipline, accountability and positivity to the clubhouse, attributes we were seeking in our next manager. … We are excited for his continued leadership in the dugout.â
New York was 34-47 at the midpoint of the season when Mendoza was fired on June 26. The team is 37-38 since Green took over.
Chron.com
A lot of that second half improved came without Juan Soto in the lineup, New York going 20-22 in the games Soto played.
The Red Sox removed the interim label from manager Chad Tracy:
The Red Sox are heading to the postseason following a remarkable run over the second half of the season and on Tuesday they rewarded the two chief architects of that turnaround.
Boston removed the interim tag and named Chad Tracy the 49th manager in team history, signing him to a three-year contract that will run through the 2029 season, with a club option for 2030. The Red Sox also announced that it has exercised the 2029 and 2030 options on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
NBCBoston.com
Red Sox batters hit .233/.313/.354 under Alex Cora this season, .249/.322/.411 under Tracy, better but not mind blowing. The opposition went from allowing a.252/.327/.422 slash line to holding foes to a .239/.303/.368 line, a huge improvement. The change in which side dominated slugging made the team much better.
Now we’ll see if they can keep that up in the playoffs.
The Rays get two chances to clinch the AL East as they take on the Yankees in a split admission doubleheader in The Bronx. All four starting pitchers feature ERAs under 3.00. Nick Martinez with a 2.94 ERA takes on Carlos Rodon with a 2.95 ERA in game one, while Drew Rasmussen with a 2.72 ERA faces Max Fried with a 2.63 ERA in game two. The two Rays starters are a combined 30-9 on the season, and the team is 42-14 in their starts.
A possible NL playoff pairing takes place in Philadelphia as the Brewers visit the Phillies. Dustin May takes on Zack Wheeler. May may not get a start in the post-season, as he allowed a 5.40 ERA in eight starts since joining Milwaukee. He’s allowed a .350 OBP mostly due to a .318 BABIP. Wheeler went through a rough patch in early August, but seems to have righted the ship with 1.04 ERA in his last four starts, striking out 29 and allowing one home runs in 26 innings.
A possible AL playoff matchup takes place in Boston as the Guardians visit the Red Sox. Parker Messick battles Payton Tolle. Messick ranks sixth i the majors in ERA, giving him a great shot at the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award. There’s a very nice mix of young and old at the top of that list. Tolle will fall short on innings to qualify for the leaderboard, but his 3.02 ERA in 143 innings proved a nice boost to the Red Sox campaign. Cleveland’s magic number is six as the White Sox hold the tie breaker in the AL Central race.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
I would have thought that Moreno would do well against Freeland, but he is just three for twelve with a walk and three strikeouts. He is a low strikeout, high BABIP hitter, and he is playing at Cooors Field tonight. Log5 makes the Diamondbacks look good as they need to keep winning to have a shot at the playoffs.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
Moreno tops this list, but the NN puts more weight on the batter, and Arraez pops into second place.
The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:
The LR agrees with Moreno and Arraez as the top two picks. McCann is the consensus double down, but as the backup catcher, he and Moreno probably don’t start together.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Monday’s games brought no changes to the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, as none of the top five were in action. Pete Alonso of the Orioles moved up to eighth place with a two home run game, driving in three of the Orioles runs in a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays. His eighth inning homer gave Baltimore the lead and the game. Alonso reaches 40 home runs for the fourth time in his career. His teammate, Gunnar Henderson, posted the highest game score of the day, a 75. He missed the cycle by a double in his four plate appearances, driving in the other Orioles run. It was a good night in a poor season, as Henderson’s slash line stands at .227/.310/.408.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
The Blue Jays visit the Orioles in the only one of the three games that impacts the play off picture. The Blue Jays elimination number is three, the Orioles is down to two, so both teams need to win pretty much all of their remaining games and get help to become a wild card. Trey Yesavage takes on Shane Baz. Yesavage seemed like less of an ace this season. His one weakness in 2025 was a high walk rate. That persisted. His strengths, a high K rate and limiting power regressed. Despite a lower K rate, he did limit hits overall, allowing just 61 safeties in 93 2/3 innings. Thirty one of those went for extra bases, however.
Baz proved to be an innings eater for the Orioles, with 173 IP so far in 2026. His 4.11 ERA is almost 0.8 runs lower than his 2025 mark, but the Orioles could not turn that number into wins, going 9-21 in his starts. Note that the Orioles score 4.44 runs per game. Baz’s run average (including unearned runs) was 4.63, so the winning percentage in his games should have been closer to .480. That would have given the Orioles five more wins and put them in the wild card driver’s seat.
Enjoy!
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 25 full weeks the seasons are nearly indistinguishable in runs, 8.92 per game in 2025, 8.97 in 2026. The league made up for a slight drop in home runs and BABIP hits with a rise in walks and hit batters. Overall, 24.03 batters reached base by a hit, walk, or HBP in 2026 versus 23.71 in 2026. It’s been an amazingly consisten two seasons.
The majors produced 8.59 runs per game last week. Weeks 25 and 26 tend to be low scoring, so 2026 fits that pattern so far. Strikeouts, walks, and hits were high, but home runs were low.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Lee is by far the best pick on a day with just three games, but is listed as day to day.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
Clement beats out Bateman in the NN. Clement slumped in September, however, picking up hits in just 50% of his games.
The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:
Lee ranks as the unanimous top pick, with Clement the consensus double down. Bateman and Kirk might be a better double down pair today, however.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
The penultimate Sunday of the regular season brought some changes to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The injured Rafael Devers of the Giants remained on top, but his score is starting to erode with the time off. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres sits in second place with a home run in a 7-3 over the Marlins. His teammate, Jake Cronenworth posted the highest game score of the day, an 83. He went three for four with a double and two home runs. His OBP of .310 and slugging percentage of .327 both represent single season lows for him, however.
Third place belongs to Randy Arozarena of the Mariners, who drew a walk in four PA in a 2-1 win over the Rockies. Mookie Betts of the Dodgers stayed in fourth place despite an 0 for 4 in a 3-1 win over the Giants.
Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cub moved back into the top five, posting the second highest game score of the day, a 72. He went three for five with a double and a home run in a 9-1 win over the Reds. He leads the majors in extra-base hits with 83.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
In the last few years, MLB used a post-season bracket, rather than reseeding after each round. The brackets are set up so that the third best division winner places the third wild card, while the top two wild card teams play for the right to meet the team with the best record in the league. Basically, the highest division winner in each of the first two rounds gets to face a wild card team. In the NL this season, where all the wild card teams are likely to be second place teams, all worse records than any division winner, this works great.
The AL this season offers the reason against the bracket. The best three teams in the league all likely come out of the AL East. That means the top two wild cards, the Yankees and the Red Sox, play each other in the first round. Then the Rays, face the winner of that round, making the first two rounds of the AL post season a playoff for the AL East title. If the wild card team emerged from the other pair in the first round, the Rays will not play them.
In fact, if all three division winners make it to the second round, the Rays would play the Yankees or Red Sox anyway, since a Wild Card always is a lower seed.
Brackets give MLB two advantages:
So it seems to me that brackets are here to stay.
Retiring umpire Laz Diaz complains about the state of the game for umpires, but two statements make me question his judgement:
“Itâs nasty. We donât get the recognition. Everybody is putting us down. Like with Angel (Hernandez) and C.B. (Bucknor), they got so much criticism, and theyâre great umpires. But everything is just so (expletive) negative.”
USAToday.com
My daughter called me up once, complaining about an umpire in a game she watched. She couldn’t remember his name. I said, Angel Hernandez, and she said. “Yes!”
To give C.B. Bucknor some credit, I think he improved greatly since the league started doing reviews. It’s reinforcement training, and it helps.
The other statement that bothered me is this:
Thereâs so much more technical stuff. Itâs kind of restricted us. I mean, everything is black and white now. You canât manage the game.
Umpires should not manage games. They are supposed to find truth to the best of their ability. Now, at least, they can be corrected.
Former reliever Emmanuel Clase goes on trial in November for wire fraud, money laundering and conspiracy over manipulating pitches to benefit gamblers. Prosecutors identified 18 suspect pitches.
In the documents, prosecutors from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York included a list of the individual pitches that Clase threw in 17 games spanning from May 19, 2023, to May 28, 2025. Clase is accused of sharing advance information about the pitches with bettors, who allegedly placed wagers on the result and velocity of the pitches.
Clase’s first pitch to Matt Vierling of the Detroit Tigers in the ninth inning of an Oct. 5, 2024, American League Division Series game was on the list. The pitch, a 93 mph slider, was out of the strike zone. The Guardians won the game 7-0.
ESPN.com
Clase threw away a promising career for a small gain. It’s time get rid of online prop betting to discourage this behavior even more.
The Braves can clinch the NL East with a win over the Astros, as Atlanta holds the tie breaker against the Phillies. The Astros find themselves one game behind the Rangers, Houston holding the tie-breaker against Texas in the AL West. Martin Perez takes the mound for the Braves against Hunter Brown of the Astros. Perez did a good job this season preventing home runs and all hits in general, despite a low K rate. He allowed a .252 BABIP, which helped diffuse a high walk rate. He also did a good job of removing base runners with double plays. Brown, who started the season injured, never seemed to find his control, walking 4.55 batters per 9 IP against his career average of 3.27.
The Blue Jays try to stop their fade in the AL Wild Card race while the Rangers try to hold the top spot in the AL West. Spencer Miles battles Jacob deGrom. Miles has not fared well starting games this season, 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in seven starts covering 19 innings. He stands 6-0 with a 1.61 ERA in 72 2/3 relief innings. Two of the five home runs he allowed came as a starter. deGrom pitched better down the stretch. He posted a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts, recording 35 K and just two walks in 24 innings.
Finally, Jacob Misiorowski appears in prime time as the Brewers visit the Orioles. The Brewers magic number is five to clinch the top record in the NL. He remains the odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
It should be a very good day for the Rays.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
The NN agrees on the top two, but Arraez works his way into the third slot.
The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:
It a unanimous double down pick today with Simpson and Diaz. Diaz had a day off Saturday so he should be fresh.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Mookie Betts of the Dodgers posted the second highest game score of the day on Saturday, an 81. That was after posting the highest game score of the day on Friday. Betts went four for four with three doubles and a walk in a 10-4 win over the Giants and takes fourth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Rafael Devers of the Giants is out for the season but remains in first place.
Randy Arozarena of the Mariners extended his hit streak to eight games with a home run in a 5-3 Rockies win. He sits in second place. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres homered and was hit by a pitch in a 7-6, ten inning win over the Marlins. Elly De La Cruz of the Reds rounds out the top five, drawing two walks in a 5-2 Cubs win.
The highest game score of the day belonged to Angel Martinez of the Guardians, an 88. He posted a four for five with a double and two home runs in a 12-6 win over the Athletics. The big day at the plate could only bring Martinez’s OBP up to .292. He is all about power, with 41 of his 93 hits going for extra bases.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
The Blue Jays and Rangers continue their quests for the playoffs as Jose Soriano faces Cal Quantrill. Soriano posted a new single season high in innings, beating his 2025 mark of 169 by a third of an inning. He improved both his strikeout and walk rates, but saw his home run rate rise. Quantrill’s 2.90 ERA would be his best since 2021, and three runs under his 2025 mark. He allowed just 25 walks in 108 2/3 innings.
The Braves clinched a playoff slot with the win over the Astros Friday night. Both Atlanta and Houston push for division titles as they send Grant Holmes and Hayden Wesneski to the mound in Texas. Holmes tries to reach double digits in wins for the first time in his career, bringing a 3.68 ERA into the game. He induced 11 double plays in 86 opportunities. Wesneski makes his tenth start of the season, and he’s induced six GDPs in 28 opportunities, so look for runners taken off the bases in this game.
Enjoy!
