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  • The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball

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The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball

4.4 out of 5 stars (286)

Written by three esteemed baseball statisticians, The Book continues where the legendary Bill James's Baseball Abstracts and Palmer and Thorn's The Hidden Game of Baseball left off more than twenty years ago. Continuing in the grand tradition of sabermetrics, the authors provide a revolutionary way to think about baseball with principles that can be applied at every level, from high school to the major leagues.

Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin cover topics such as batting and pitching matchups, platooning, the benefits and risks of intentional walks and sacrifices, the legitimacy of alleged "clutch" hitters, and many of baseball's other theories on hitting, fielding, pitching, and even baserunning. They analyze when a strategy is a good idea and when it's a bad idea, and how to more closely watch the "inside" game of baseball.

Whenever you hear an announcer talk about the "unwritten rule" or say that so-and-so is going "by the book" in bringing in a situational substitute, The Book reviews the facts and determines what the real case is. If you want to know what the folks in baseball should be doing, find out in The Book.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

"I can heartily recommend . . . The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, by a trio of talented sabermatricians." -- Rob Neyer, co-author of The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers

"It's the book I've always wanted to do."--John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible

About the Author

Tom Tango runs the Tango on Baseball website and has consulted for major league baseball teams. He lives in New Jersey. Mitchel Lichtman has been doing sabermetric research for over seventeen years and was the senior analyst for a major league baseball team. He lives in New York. Andrew Dolphin has been working with sports statistics for over ten years and is a consultant for a major league baseball team. He lives in Tucson, Arizona.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Potomac Books Inc
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ March 10, 2007
  • Edition ‏ : ‎ 0
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 385 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1597971294
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1597971294
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.15 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1 x 8.75 inches
  • Best Sellers Rank: #1,591,923 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 out of 5 stars (286)

About the authors

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Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
286 global ratings

Customers say

Customers appreciate how the book walks readers through the analysis of baseball, with one noting it does an excellent job explaining basic sabermetric concepts. The book receives positive feedback for its readability, though some find it tough to read. Customers disagree on the clarity of the explanations, with some finding them easy to understand while others consider them too technical. Customers find the content informative, though one notes it can be redundant, and several mention the book is dated.
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23 customers mention content, 21 positive, 2 negative
Customers appreciate the book's content, which walks readers through the analysis of baseball, with one customer highlighting its excellent job of explaining basic sabermetric concepts.
...taught me a lot and I've played 25+yearsRead more
must have for the aspiring little league baseball manager, get the best out of your 8 year old players and win your leagues championship, the...Read more
...It will help me see the game in a new way this season. I would have liked to see more stats from players in the mid to late 2000s....Read more
...Learning things like the optimum batting order (which is different from what virtually every MLB manager does) was intriguing....Read more
18 customers mention readability, 14 positive, 4 negative
Customers find the book interesting and fun to read, with one customer particularly appreciating the detailed analysis of different game situations.
...Great read for those interested in learning about baseball and rumors and myths about certain situations.Read more
It's a tough read ... and I'm even a stat geek!Read more
Good read, but not on a KindleRead more
Not what I think, if unfamiliar with baseball it's not a good book for you to get excited aboutRead more
22 customers mention informativeness, 15 positive, 7 negative
Customers have mixed opinions about the informativeness of the book, with some finding it a lot of great information, while one customer notes it focuses on just a few statistical categories.
A lot of great research went into this book. I applaud their effort when it comes to applying math to sports, particularly baseball....Read more
Incredibly informative book. Tom Tango is one of the best.Read more
Too many statisticsRead more
...It is chock full of information, results from research and answers a lot of interesting baseball questions....Read more
10 customers mention clarity, 6 positive, 4 negative
Customers have mixed opinions about the clarity of the book, with some finding it clear and easy to understand, while others find it too technical.
...skewed by the steroid era but it's still very well written and easy to understand....Read more
...This book and others like it confuse the reader with in depth math equations and analysis only to summarize at the end that; it doesnt matter in...Read more
...The clear explanations are such that any person who can understand percentages will gain insight from the book....Read more
...so vast and the differences are so minuscule, that it will just confuse any amateur coach trying to read this book.Read more
6 customers mention outdated, 0 positive, 6 negative
Customers find the book outdated, with several noting that many of the references and names are no longer current.
...The book is a bit dated and maybe skewed by the steroid era but it's still very well written and easy to understand....Read more
Besides being a bit outdated and much has changed since their date range of study, i.e. 2004 season is used as a focal point in this book,...Read more
Dated. A lot not relevantRead more
...Also, the information on this book is a little outdated. It would be interesting to see "The Book 2" or something with more recent numbersRead more

Top reviews from the United States

  • 5 out of 5 stars
    The best book of its kind - by far!
    Reviewed in the United States on June 24, 2007
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    Other sabermetric books have been written in the last few years, The Book is the best one by far. It is chock full of information, results from research and answers a lot of interesting baseball questions. The three authors, Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin have academic backgrounds and work for major league teams as employees or consultants. They use statistical methods to extract and comprehend information from a massive database of baseball games.

    For the layman, there may be too much math throughout the book. However, they do a fantastic job of summarizing each idea in plain English at the end of each section. For example, in chapter 2 on hot and cold streaks, after presenting data, explaining their process and interpreting results, they summarize the section with "Knowing that a hitter has been in or is in the midset of a hot or cold streak has little predictive value. Always assume that a player will hit at his projected norm (adjusted for the park, weather, and pitcher he is facing), regardless of how he has performed in the very recent past. A player's recent history may be used as a tiebreaker."

    Managers, players, fans and the media often put too much emphasis on results from small samples sizes. The authors warn against making this mistake. "One of the pervasive themes of this book is the danger of inferring too much from too little by underestimating the influence of randomness". For example, they summarize a section on pitcher-batter matchups with: "Knowing a player will face a particular opponent, and given the choice between that player's 1,500 PA (plate appearances) over the past three years against the rest of the league or twenty-five PA against that particular opponent, look at the 1,500 PA. "

    They aren't afraid to point out when general baseball wisdom is correct. On starting pitchers, they write, "pitchers perform best with five days of rest, and worst with three days of rest. To manage our entire starting rotation effectively, four days of rest seems to be the optimal point. The current MLB pattern of scheduling the starting rotation works."

    This book is at the top of my recommendation list for thinking baseball fans. I'm a bit surprised that I'm the first reviewer of this book on Amazon, since it has been out for three months. The sales ranking (currently #47,000 as I write this review) is disappointing for such an incredible book. The Book deserves to be at the top of the baseball best seller's list.

    89 people found this helpful
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  • 5 out of 5 stars
    Best math book on baseball ever.
    Reviewed in the United States on October 2, 2008
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    The authors of "The Book" reveal truths of baseball derived from careful statistical analysis. The clear explanations are such that any person who can understand percentages will gain insight from the book. The conclusions (and data upon which they are based) are truly amazing. I have never read a book on baseball in this league. Every angle of the game is analyzed objectively. While it is presented such that "non-math" people can understand it, there is enough meat to the analysis that substantiate the conclusions without scaring the average reader.

    My purpose in studying baseball is from a sports betting perspective. The conclusions (such as run equity and win percentages given different situations) make this book a mandatory purchase for anyone who bets on Baseball live, or conducts a very thorough analysis of moneyline prices.

    There has never been a book on baseball so well written that targets all ranges of sabr-metric fans. This will teach you the subtleties in baseball that add small percentages to winning games and scoring runs. If you are a fantasy baseball player, a lot of this content is invaluable to you as well.

    28 people found this helpful
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  • 4 out of 5 stars
    The book on the book in baseball
    Reviewed in the United States on February 22, 2011
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    One of the common phrases that we hear in baseball is that a manager was playing by "the book." That is, the manager was doing what the unwritten rules of baseball suggest. One example at the outset illustrates: walking a batter intentionally with first base open. This book, in essence, rewrites the book.

    The authors use a detailed data base (including each at bat over a period of years) and then do a statistical analysis of results. And, they argue, the unwritten book is often wrong. The first chapter lays out the logic of this book's orientation. Many readers might find the chapter dense and too quantitative for their taste. My advice? Close the book and put it away, because the book features much statistical analysis.

    To illustrate the work's approach. . . . Here are some issues addressed: How real are batting streaks (Answer: You can't predict how a player will do during a hot streak; there is no inherent "momentum")? Chapter three looks at pitcher-batter confrontations. Do certain pitchers "own" batters? Do certain hitters "own" pitchers? Data analysis suggests that we overrate these ideas. We all talk about clutch hitters and clutch pitchers. Chapter 4 takes this notion on (read the book to find out what actually happens).

    Chapter 5 examines how to construct a batting order; Chapter 6 examines lefty-versus righty confrontations between hitters and pitchers; Chapter 9 looks at the value and efficacy of the sacrifice bunt; and so on.

    If the reader is a figure filbert and likes sabermetrics, this book will be a delight. If you are old school, not so much! But, for me, a lot of fun. . . .

    22 people found this helpful
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  • 5 out of 5 stars
    Awesome book on baseball and statistics
    Reviewed in the United States on July 2, 2012
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    If you are a baseball junkie (check) and interested in data analysis (check) this is a GREAT book. The book walks you through the analysis of the game of baseball using various statistical methods and a recent dataset.

    The writing style is a little odd (but I got used to it), but the charts are fantastic and easy to understand. The material is broken down in such a way that it is very easy to follow the logic of the authors and examines each decision a manager would have to make when managing a baseball game. Lineup, steals, bunts, and streaks are all covered.

    A fun, fun book with a huge amount of insight into the game. Now I am second guessing my home team manager's line up. I could do it better, couldn't I????

    6 people found this helpful
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  • 3 out of 5 stars
    Just OK. In depth but falls flat.
    Reviewed in the United States on March 14, 2023
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    First off the author is very smart and the book is very in depth. I wouldn’t call it a head to toe book on Sabermetrics. The author focuses on just a few statistical categories, mainly wOBA. There are a slew of saber stats not even mentioned in this book but appreciate the fact that he crowns just a few to focus on. The reason it falls flat is due to the fact that most readers, including myself, are not math wizards. This book and others like it confuse the reader with in depth math equations and analysis only to summarize at the end that; it doesnt matter in baseball. Chapter after chapter expands on every aspect of baseball and every situation only to conclude over and over again that it doesnt have much of an affect on the outcome of the game. The novice fan and handicapper wants a concise summary of what matters most and what determines a win. In baseball and Saber, it still simply comes down to Runs and Wins.

    3 people found this helpful
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  • 5 out of 5 stars
    The Book is a must for baseball nerds, Joe fan should read it too
    Reviewed in the United States on May 23, 2018
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    Baseball nerds must read The Book, it's the bible of their world. Statisticians and math majors will find it easier to understand than the average fan because that's who wrote it. Like all sabermetric oriented texts it ignores the human factor and provides only the probability based side.

    The Book does however provide insight into traditional ideas, proving some and disproving others. It will help those who aren't sure about the new metrics in the game have at least a general idea where they came from. I caution those who read it and become immediate disciples to remember that people create the trends that became baseline for these metrics. They provide guides to probability not absolute answers to what should be done.

    10 people found this helpful
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  • 5 out of 5 stars
    Best Source Available for Sabermetric Beginners
    Reviewed in the United States on June 15, 2022
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    This book does an excellent job walking through many of the basic sabermetric concepts in baseball. However, the only complaint is that as of 2022, many of the names are starting to become dated and less recognizable to younger fans.

    Still a fantastic book!

    2 people found this helpful
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  • 4 out of 5 stars
    Freshen up on your math prior to reading The Book
    Reviewed in the United States on February 22, 2009
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    This is a very interesting read about sabremetrics. Tom Tango who now works for the Seattle Mariners does a very good job in explaining these new stats. Great read for those interested in learning about baseball and rumors and myths about certain situations.

    2 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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  • 5 out of 5 stars
    Complet avec des exemples
    Reviewed in France on September 27, 2012
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    Clairement LE LIVRE pour commencer dans le monde du "Sabermetrics". Des exemples concrets, avec des tableaux, des formules, bref la meilleure entrée en matière pour celui qui souhaite apprendre et surtout comprendre les statistiques dans le baseball.

    De plus, sur le site internet de l'auteur, il y a régulièrement des annotations ou des mises à jour de certaines parties du livre. Bref, l'auteur est très réactif pour toutes questions ou même suggestions.

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  • 5 out of 5 stars
    Essential reading
    Reviewed in Canada on December 4, 2018
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    I keep coming back to reference parts of this book. It is still relevant after more than a decade.

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  • 5 out of 5 stars
    Good
    Reviewed in Canada on September 6, 2018
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  • 4 out of 5 stars
    Good insights, reads like a textbook though
    Reviewed in Canada on September 15, 2023
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    The math is in there if you’re so inclined. If significantly less so, it could be a labourious slug to make it through.

    I feel like like I need to read it again for it to sink in, but the writers were kind enough to put the conclusions in ever-so-tempting boxes should you want to skim the preceding material.

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  • 3 out of 5 stars
    Okay
    Reviewed in Canada on February 16, 2017
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    A bit dated now, but an interesting read

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