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The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball
Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin cover topics such as batting and pitching matchups, platooning, the benefits and risks of intentional walks and sacrifices, the legitimacy of alleged "clutch" hitters, and many of baseball's other theories on hitting, fielding, pitching, and even baserunning. They analyze when a strategy is a good idea and when it's a bad idea, and how to more closely watch the "inside" game of baseball.
Whenever you hear an announcer talk about the "unwritten rule" or say that so-and-so is going "by the book" in bringing in a situational substitute, The Book reviews the facts and determines what the real case is. If you want to know what the folks in baseball should be doing, find out in The Book.
- Print length385 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherPotomac Books Inc
- Publication dateMarch 10, 2007
- Dimensions6 x 1 x 8.75 inches
- ISBN-101597971294
- ISBN-13978-1597971294
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Editorial Reviews
From the Publisher
"It's the book I've always wanted to do."--John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Potomac Books Inc
- Publication date : March 10, 2007
- Edition : 0
- Language : English
- Print length : 385 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1597971294
- ISBN-13 : 978-1597971294
- Item Weight : 1.15 pounds
- Dimensions : 6 x 1 x 8.75 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,591,923 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #420 in Baseball (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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Top reviews from the United States
- 5 out of 5 stars
The best book of its kind - by far!
Reviewed in the United States on June 24, 2007Other sabermetric books have been written in the last few years, The Book is the best one by far. It is chock full of information, results from research and answers a lot of interesting baseball questions. The three authors, Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin have academic backgrounds and work for major league teams as employees or consultants. They use statistical methods to extract and comprehend information from a massive database of baseball games.
For the layman, there may be too much math throughout the book. However, they do a fantastic job of summarizing each idea in plain English at the end of each section. For example, in chapter 2 on hot and cold streaks, after presenting data, explaining their process and interpreting results, they summarize the section with "Knowing that a hitter has been in or is in the midset of a hot or cold streak has little predictive value. Always assume that a player will hit at his projected norm (adjusted for the park, weather, and pitcher he is facing), regardless of how he has performed in the very recent past. A player's recent history may be used as a tiebreaker."
Managers, players, fans and the media often put too much emphasis on results from small samples sizes. The authors warn against making this mistake. "One of the pervasive themes of this book is the danger of inferring too much from too little by underestimating the influence of randomness". For example, they summarize a section on pitcher-batter matchups with: "Knowing a player will face a particular opponent, and given the choice between that player's 1,500 PA (plate appearances) over the past three years against the rest of the league or twenty-five PA against that particular opponent, look at the 1,500 PA. "
They aren't afraid to point out when general baseball wisdom is correct. On starting pitchers, they write, "pitchers perform best with five days of rest, and worst with three days of rest. To manage our entire starting rotation effectively, four days of rest seems to be the optimal point. The current MLB pattern of scheduling the starting rotation works."
This book is at the top of my recommendation list for thinking baseball fans. I'm a bit surprised that I'm the first reviewer of this book on Amazon, since it has been out for three months. The sales ranking (currently #47,000 as I write this review) is disappointing for such an incredible book. The Book deserves to be at the top of the baseball best seller's list.
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CancelReport - 5 out of 5 stars
Best math book on baseball ever.
Reviewed in the United States on October 2, 2008The authors of "The Book" reveal truths of baseball derived from careful statistical analysis. The clear explanations are such that any person who can understand percentages will gain insight from the book. The conclusions (and data upon which they are based) are truly amazing. I have never read a book on baseball in this league. Every angle of the game is analyzed objectively. While it is presented such that "non-math" people can understand it, there is enough meat to the analysis that substantiate the conclusions without scaring the average reader.
My purpose in studying baseball is from a sports betting perspective. The conclusions (such as run equity and win percentages given different situations) make this book a mandatory purchase for anyone who bets on Baseball live, or conducts a very thorough analysis of moneyline prices.
There has never been a book on baseball so well written that targets all ranges of sabr-metric fans. This will teach you the subtleties in baseball that add small percentages to winning games and scoring runs. If you are a fantasy baseball player, a lot of this content is invaluable to you as well.
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CancelReport - 4 out of 5 stars
The book on the book in baseball
Reviewed in the United States on February 22, 2011One of the common phrases that we hear in baseball is that a manager was playing by "the book." That is, the manager was doing what the unwritten rules of baseball suggest. One example at the outset illustrates: walking a batter intentionally with first base open. This book, in essence, rewrites the book.
The authors use a detailed data base (including each at bat over a period of years) and then do a statistical analysis of results. And, they argue, the unwritten book is often wrong. The first chapter lays out the logic of this book's orientation. Many readers might find the chapter dense and too quantitative for their taste. My advice? Close the book and put it away, because the book features much statistical analysis.
To illustrate the work's approach. . . . Here are some issues addressed: How real are batting streaks (Answer: You can't predict how a player will do during a hot streak; there is no inherent "momentum")? Chapter three looks at pitcher-batter confrontations. Do certain pitchers "own" batters? Do certain hitters "own" pitchers? Data analysis suggests that we overrate these ideas. We all talk about clutch hitters and clutch pitchers. Chapter 4 takes this notion on (read the book to find out what actually happens).
Chapter 5 examines how to construct a batting order; Chapter 6 examines lefty-versus righty confrontations between hitters and pitchers; Chapter 9 looks at the value and efficacy of the sacrifice bunt; and so on.
If the reader is a figure filbert and likes sabermetrics, this book will be a delight. If you are old school, not so much! But, for me, a lot of fun. . . .
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CancelReport - 5 out of 5 stars
Awesome book on baseball and statistics
Reviewed in the United States on July 2, 2012If you are a baseball junkie (check) and interested in data analysis (check) this is a GREAT book. The book walks you through the analysis of the game of baseball using various statistical methods and a recent dataset.
The writing style is a little odd (but I got used to it), but the charts are fantastic and easy to understand. The material is broken down in such a way that it is very easy to follow the logic of the authors and examines each decision a manager would have to make when managing a baseball game. Lineup, steals, bunts, and streaks are all covered.
A fun, fun book with a huge amount of insight into the game. Now I am second guessing my home team manager's line up. I could do it better, couldn't I????
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CancelReport - 3 out of 5 stars
Just OK. In depth but falls flat.
Reviewed in the United States on March 14, 2023First off the author is very smart and the book is very in depth. I wouldn’t call it a head to toe book on Sabermetrics. The author focuses on just a few statistical categories, mainly wOBA. There are a slew of saber stats not even mentioned in this book but appreciate the fact that he crowns just a few to focus on. The reason it falls flat is due to the fact that most readers, including myself, are not math wizards. This book and others like it confuse the reader with in depth math equations and analysis only to summarize at the end that; it doesnt matter in baseball. Chapter after chapter expands on every aspect of baseball and every situation only to conclude over and over again that it doesnt have much of an affect on the outcome of the game. The novice fan and handicapper wants a concise summary of what matters most and what determines a win. In baseball and Saber, it still simply comes down to Runs and Wins.
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CancelReport - 5 out of 5 stars
The Book is a must for baseball nerds, Joe fan should read it too
Reviewed in the United States on May 23, 2018Baseball nerds must read The Book, it's the bible of their world. Statisticians and math majors will find it easier to understand than the average fan because that's who wrote it. Like all sabermetric oriented texts it ignores the human factor and provides only the probability based side.
The Book does however provide insight into traditional ideas, proving some and disproving others. It will help those who aren't sure about the new metrics in the game have at least a general idea where they came from. I caution those who read it and become immediate disciples to remember that people create the trends that became baseline for these metrics. They provide guides to probability not absolute answers to what should be done.
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CancelReport - 5 out of 5 stars
Best Source Available for Sabermetric Beginners
Reviewed in the United States on June 15, 2022This book does an excellent job walking through many of the basic sabermetric concepts in baseball. However, the only complaint is that as of 2022, many of the names are starting to become dated and less recognizable to younger fans.
Still a fantastic book!
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CancelReport - 4 out of 5 stars
Freshen up on your math prior to reading The Book
Reviewed in the United States on February 22, 2009This is a very interesting read about sabremetrics. Tom Tango who now works for the Seattle Mariners does a very good job in explaining these new stats. Great read for those interested in learning about baseball and rumors and myths about certain situations.
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Top reviews from other countries
Reno5 out of 5 starsComplet avec des exemples
Reviewed in France on September 27, 2012Clairement LE LIVRE pour commencer dans le monde du "Sabermetrics". Des exemples concrets, avec des tableaux, des formules, bref la meilleure entrée en matière pour celui qui souhaite apprendre et surtout comprendre les statistiques dans le baseball.
De plus, sur le site internet de l'auteur, il y a régulièrement des annotations ou des mises à jour de certaines parties du livre. Bref, l'auteur est très réactif pour toutes questions ou même suggestions.
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JM5 out of 5 starsEssential reading
Reviewed in Canada on December 4, 2018I keep coming back to reference parts of this book. It is still relevant after more than a decade.
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Vasos Lagoudis5 out of 5 starsGood
Reviewed in Canada on September 6, 2018Sending feedback...Thanks, we'll investigate in the next few days.Sorry, We failed to report this review. Please try againWe'll check if this review meets our community guidelinesOpens in a new tab. If it doesn't, we'll remove it.
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CMS4 out of 5 starsGood insights, reads like a textbook though
Reviewed in Canada on September 15, 2023The math is in there if you’re so inclined. If significantly less so, it could be a labourious slug to make it through.
I feel like like I need to read it again for it to sink in, but the writers were kind enough to put the conclusions in ever-so-tempting boxes should you want to skim the preceding material.
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Lloyd3 out of 5 starsOkay
Reviewed in Canada on February 16, 2017A bit dated now, but an interesting read
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