These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election
The most striking thing is how badly Reform will do once tactical voting kicks in. TSE
I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead
This poll from More in Common is interesting, I would caveat it with other pollsters in the past week who have Reform 5%/6% ahead of the Conservatives, and YouGov have them tied. With Nigel Farageâs ratings cratering over the last few months the fall in Reformâs score was inevitable, with some pollsters now prompting for Restore has made this a double whammy for Reform. Andy Burnhamâs honeymoon is ending and Burnham’s political rhetoric meets fiscal and economic reality in the…
If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans
I would not be surprised to see where petrol and diesel prices have increased the most the Republicans do the worst in the midterms. TSE
Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting
This polling cracks me up, it might be the epitome of correlation doesnât equal causation or it might be significant however it does merit further investigation. It should be remembered that some people are weirdly snobbish about supermarkets, I love Sainsbury’s as they keep the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose, so there is the potential for existing perceptions being reinforced. Thanks to Robert’s hard work he’s managed to produce a lot of information looking at the shops mentioned in…
The New Ease of Fabricating Polls
There are, by my count, 162 organisations that have published a poll of an American race since the start of last year. Between them they have put out 1,138 polls. Here’s the thing: 83 of those 162 published their first poll this year. And 101 of them -nearly two thirds- have published three polls or fewer, ever. So who are they? Well, the established third are exactly who you’d think. Siena, Marquette, Quinnipiac, Emerson. Serious operations (often with universities attached),…
Andy Burnham’s ratings take a hit, is the honeymoon wearing off?
Like night following day there’s an inevitability about Prime Ministers becoming unpopular after their honeymoon, what should keep Labour supporters happy is that Burnham is still much more better rated than Nigel Farage. If Burnham’s ratings to continue to fall at this rate then it should end any speculation about an early election. TSE
Will the extreme Reform win the next general election? I have my doubts
This latest polling from Ipsos confirms for me that plenty of people will vote tactically against Reform. When nearly six out of ten voters think youâre extreme then that should put a cap on your support. The headline voting intention poll has Labour ahead of Reform by 4%, in September 2025 Reform led Labour by 12%, I will cover the leader ratings in the afternoon thread. TSE
Donald Trump continues to break polling records
One of the signs that Donald Trump was going to win in 2024 was how poorly Joe Biden/The Dems were handling the cost of living crisis that was engulfing governments across the world, in large because of the invasion of Ukraine. Applying those same principles and using this polling it bodes ill for the Republican Party and explains why the Dems are favourites to take back control of The House of Representatives. The figure that stands out is that he…
