September 30, 2026

Playoffs Today

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Cristopher Sanchez tries to keep the Phillies season alive as he faces Tyler Mahle and the Braves in game two of their NL Wild Card Series. Sanchez makes his fifth post-season start. He owns a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 innings, but no decisions. He allowed just one home run. Mahle posted a 3.99 ERA on the season, but with the Braves that dropped to 1.99. He found his control in Atlanta. After walking 37 batters in 94 2/3 innings with San Francisco, he walked nine if 54 1/3 innings with the Braves. He appears to have cut down on his use of the cutter and slider with more emphasis on his splitter.

Sean Burke and Hunter Brown get the nods for game two of the White Sox at the Astros, as the teams go with actual starting pitchers today. Burke did a great job limiting hits and power in 2026. His high K rate led to just 144 hits in 172 1/3 innings, with a .380 slugging percentage against. Injuries held Brown to just 107 1/3 innings in 2026. His strikeouts remained high, but his walk rate jumped to 4.61 per 9 IP versus a career mark of 3.30 per 9 IP. He got away with that as batters only slugged .318 against him. The teams may need longer offensive series to score runs today.

The Red Sox and Yankees offer another excellent pitching matchup as Sonny Gray takes on Max Fried, a New York win sending them to Tampa Bay to play the Rays. Gray faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing three runs in 13 2/3 innings, the Yankees homering twice off him. Fried owns a 5.31 post-season ERA. Since 2021, he’s been all or nothing in 10 starts. He did not allow a run in three of those, but overall his ERA stands at 6.22.

Finally, the Padres look to advance to Milwaukee as they aim to take two in a row against the Cubs. Kevin Gausman battles Nick Pivetta. Guasman owns a 4.83 ERA since joining the Cubs. He gave up eleven home runs in 50 1/3 innings with Chicago. Pivetta only threw 34 2/3 innings this season, but nearly matched his 2.87 ERA from 2025, coming in at 2.86. In 39 starts in two season for San Diego he is 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA. He struck out 232 batters in 216 1/3 innings, walking just 58.

Enjoy!

September 30, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres takes over the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a big night in game one of their Wild Card series against the Cubs. Tatis went two for three with a walk and a home run in the 8-0 win, scoring three times. That puts him three points ahead of Rafael Devers of the Giants. Randy Arozarena of the Mariners and Pete Alonso of the Orioles rank third and fifth respectively, their seasons over.

Ben Rice of the Yankees posted the highest game score of the night, an 89, in a 9-0 win over the Red Sox. He hit a single, double, and two home runs, including a grand slam. That moved him into fourth place in the rankings. He is now 8 for 23 in seven post-season games, with two doubles, three home runs, and 10 RBI.

September 30, 2026

September 29, 2026

Baby Bombers

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Ben Rice of the Yankees blows away the Red Sox as he posted a four for five with a double, two homers, and six RBI in a 9-0. Rice’s second home run was grand slam to put the game out of reach. George Lombard Jr. went three for four in his first post-season game.

Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches in his 6 1/3 innings. I was very surprised by that total, and we’ll see how he does the rest of the post season. In general, the young Yankees put the team in the driver seat for this series.

September 29, 2026

Opposite Sox

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The White Sox defeated the Astros 6-3 on Tuesday afternoon to take a 1-0 lead in their AL Wild Card series. The White scored in an usual way for them. During the season they collected more strikeouts than hits, but collected lots of walks and home runs. Today, they struck out eight times while collecting eleven hits, ten of them singles. Colson Montgomery added a home run for good measure.

Hagen Smith served as the Chicago opener, and wound up giving the team three-shutout innings, and that helped keep the rest of the pen fresh, with only five pitchers taking the mound. The Astros used nine.

September 29, 2026

Big Hit Braves

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The Braves downed the Phillies 5-3 Tuesday afternoon to take a 1-0 lead in their NL Wild Card series. The Phillies took the early innings with a Jesus Luzardo giving up one run in five innings and the Phillies reaching Chris Sale for three runs as Sale pitched into the seventh inning. Ozzie Albies hitting an RBI triple in the bottom of the sixth to give Atlanta a 2-1 lead. Don Mattingly made the bold move of bringing closer Jhoan Duran to start the seventh inning. He got the Braves in the seventh, but Austin Riley smacked a three-run homer in the eighth for the win.

September 29, 2026

Wilson Fired

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The Mariners fired Dan Wilson on Sunday:

Wilson, 57, a former catcher for the Mariners who is in the franchise’s Hall of Fame, took over as manager when the club fired Scott Servais during the 2024 campaign. Last season, after leading Seattle to a 90-72 record and an American League West title, he finished in third place in AL Manager of the Year voting, behind the Toronto Blue Jays’ John Schneider and the Cleveland Guardians’ Stephen Vogt, who won the award.

But this season was a struggle in Seattle. Even with Sunday’s win, the Mariners finished 76-86. They will head into the offseason with a third-place standing in the AL West, after being officially eliminated from playoff contention on Thursday.

“It’s a very difficult day,” Wilson said, holding back tears. “We love this city. We love this community. And we appreciate the organization for what it’s meant to our family.”

ESPN.com

I find this bothersome. What made Wilson great in 2025 that made him poor in 2026? Can’t a team have a bad season without it being the manager’s fault? Or were there lots of bad decisions in 2025 that just worked out well? I would love for a GM to give a critique or the problems, rather that just making change to make a change.

September 29, 2026

Rooting Interest

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For those fans whose favorite team did not make the playoffs, may I suggest rooting for the teams that went the longest without a World Championship? Here is the list with the last time the team won the World Series. A * after the year indicates the team never won the series, and that the year is the first for the franchise in the majors:

  1. Cleveland Guardians/Indians – 1948
  2. Milwaukee Brewers/Seattle Pilots – 1969*
  3. San Diego Padres -1969*
  4. Tampa Bay Rays – 1998*
  5. Chicago White Sox – 2005
  6. Philadelphia Phillies – 2008
  7. New York Yankees – 2009
  8. Chicago Cubs – 2016
  9. Boston Red Sox – 2018
  10. Atlanta Braves – 2021
  11. Houston Astros – 2022
  12. Los Angeles Dodgers – 2025 (Repeat winner)

In a nice example of history repeating, the Red Sox won five World Series titles at the start of the 20th century, ending in 1918, and not winning another until 2004. At the start of the 21st century, the Red Sox won four World Series titles, ending in 2018. I suspect I won’t be around in 2104 to see their next one.

September 29, 2026

Playoffs Today

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The Phillies and Braves open the Wild Card round at 2 PM EDT in Atlanta as Jesus Luzardo takes on Chris Sale. From June 28 through Sept. 7th, Luzardo posted just one poor start. He owned a 1.65 ERA in 87 1/3 innings. The complete game on the 7th led to an injury, Luzardo returning on the last day of the season to throw a scoreless inning in relief. Sale finished second in the NL and third in the majors in ERA at 2.16, but just made it over the qualifying level with 162 2/3 innings. He allowed just ten home run in 2026.

The White Sox open their series against the Astros in Houston with Hagen Smith facing AJ Blubaugh. If you haven’t heard of them, that’s okay. Both are rookie relievers, although Blubaugh did pitch some in 2025. Both teams burned their starters trying to win their divisions, and who wants their fourth starter going in game one! Smith gave up just eleven hits in 28 innings this season, striking out 41. He was a bit wild, walking 16 batters. He pitched two scoreless inning in his one start this season. Blubaugh also did a great job limiting hits, giving up 76 safeties in 96 innings, all in relief. Like Smith, Blubaugh is wild with a high walk rate. The difference is that batters were able to connect for 13 homers off the Astros opener, Smith gave up just one.

The Red Sox face the Yankees in The Bronx in primetime, Payton Tolle battling Cam Schlittler as the youngsters take center stage. Both these pitchers blow away batters. Among hurlers with 148 innings, Schlitter ranked fifth in the majors with 11.11 K per 9 IP. Tolle came in twelfth at 10.35 K per 9 IP. Both did a great job of limiting walks and home runs, also. Tolle shut down the Yankees in his two starts against them, allowing one run and four hits in 13 innings, the one run coming on a solo homer. Schlittler challenged the Red Sox four times in 2026, posting a 0.74 ERA in 24 1/3 innings. The two runs he allowed both came on solo home runs. One gets the feeling that the team with the most home runs wins tonight.

Finally, the Cubs get to enjoy the San Diego weather as they open their series against the Padres, prime time on west coast. Matthew Boyd faces Michael King, as the teams clinched early enough to save a good starter for game one. In the last two seasons, Boyd posted better ERAs than his FIPs as his K rate deteriorated. He is very good at removing base runners, with 24 double plays induced, six caught stealing, and 15 pickoffs over the two seasons. King is the clear ace of the San Diego staff. He did a good job limiting power in 2026, and the Cubs offense led the NL in slugging percentage this year. The Padres need the win in game one, as they’ll need to slug with the Cubs the rest of the way to win the series.

Enjoy!

September 28, 2026

Wild Card Preview, Cubs Versus Padres

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The Cubs and Padres play the West Coast series, the games starting at 7 PM PDT. At least Cubs fans don’t need to stay up too late to see the games. San Diego finished the season on a high note, winning 17 of their last 20 games to earn home field advantage. The Cubs blew hot and cold this season, recording two ten game winning streaks and a ten game losing streak.

Here is a comparison of the team offenses, with NL ranks:

Offensive Categories (NL Ranks)CubsPadres
Runs per Game5.25 (1st)4.46 (9th)
Batting Average.251 (5th).244 (11th)
On-Base Average.339 (2nd).319 (8th)
Slugging Percentage.428 (1st).398 (11th)
Home Runs220 (1st)183 (8th)
Stolen Base Percentage83.8 (2nd)79.6 (5th)
BABIP.291 (6th).288 (8th)
2026 Regular Season

The Cubs led the NL and the majors in runs per game, both Chicago teams leading their leagues in scoring. The Cubs leave no doubt why they came out on top. They did a great job getting on base, hitting for power, and even swiping bases. The Padres were fairly far behind in all those categories, but down the stretch the team hit .299/.358/.487. We’ll see if that can continue. The Cubs did not hit as well on the road this season, but decently at Petco Park.

Here is the pitching and defense comparison:

Pitching and Defense (NL Ranks)CubsPadres
Runs Allowed per Game4.34 (6th)4.20 (4th)
Earned Run Average4.12 (7th)3.99 (4th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP7.84 (12th)8.24 (8th)
Walks per 9 IP3.11 (4th)3.47 (9th)
Home Runs per 200 IP31.9 (14th)25.1 (7th)
Defensive Efficiency.719 (2nd).706 (7th)
2026 Regular Season

The Padres did a better job preventing runs, but their three-true outcome ranks argue against that. The own a top runs allowed per game value, while being middle of the road in both pure pitching stats and turning balls in play into outs. The Padres did remove 61 runners via caught stealing and pickoffs, the most in the NL. That helped save some runs. Cubs pitchers are very good at preventing walks a Padres strength, and turning batted balls into outs, which makes up for the lack of strikeouts.

Despite the ups and downs for both teams, Chicago looks like the better squad. The pitching is close and the Cubs offense is superior. I give Chicago a 53% chance to win this series.

September 28, 2026

Wild Card Preview, Red Sox Versus Yankees

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NBC gets a high rating, prime time series in round one as the Red Sox and the Yankees play a best of three series in The Bronx. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of Ruth, DiMaggio and Williams, Dent and Roberts, Matusui and Martinez, and a whole lot of Aaron Boone.

Here is a comparison of the team offenses, with AL Ranks:

Offensive Categories (AL Ranks)Red SoxYankees
Runs per Game4.25 (10th)4.59 (2nd)
Batting Average.245 (4th).235 (12th)
On-Base Average.319 (4th).311 (13th)
Slugging Percentage.397 (9th).409 (2nd)
Home Runs163 (12th)223 (2nd)
Stolen Base Percentage73.3 (10th)75.7 (6th)
BABIP.293 (3rd).280 (13th)
2026 Regular Season

I keep looking at these numbers and thinking they must be wrong. The Red Sox get on base, they should score more runs. All the Yankees do is hit homers, there must be more to the game than that! Part of this is situational. The Yankees did a poor job of reaching base when the bases were empty. Once someone reached however, they did a great job of keeping the line moving, with a lot of their power coming with men on base. The Red Sox were more even, but overall their averages dipped with men on base.

Note that both these offenses go into the first round with injuries to key offensive players. We’ll see how well they healed tomorrow.

Here is the pitching and defense comparison:

Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks)Red SoxYankees
Runs Allowed per Game3.77 (2nd)3.73 (1st)
Earned Run Average3.54 (2nd)3.24 (1st)
Strikeouts per 9 IP8.74 (7th)9.05 (2nd)
Walks per 9 IP2.93 (3rd)3.05 (4th)
Home Runs per 200 IP21.3 (1st)22.9 (2nd)
Defensive Efficiency.694 (9th).711 (3rd)
2026 Regular Season

The pitching and defense is a different story, as the series features the top two staffs in the American League. Both teams limit home runs, which hurts the Yankees more than the Red Sox since Boston hitters don’t go deep as often. The Yankees, however, combine limiting balls in play via strikeouts with a defense that turns the balls that do get put into play into outs. That should help keep Red Sox batters off base.

Given the difference in scoring between the two teams, one would think the Yankees should be a big favorite. Two many things balance out, however, so my probability of the New York beating Boston stands at just 52%.

September 28, 2026

Wild Card Preview, White Sox Versus Astros

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The White Sox head to Houston to play the Astros in a best of three series, all games in Texas. Chicago owns the better record, but Houston gets home field as a division winner.

Here is a comparison of the the team offenses, with AL Ranks:

Offensive Category (AL Ranks)White SoxAstros
Runs per Game4.79 (1st)4.53 (5th)
Batting Average.236 (11th).242 (7th)
On-Base Average.320 (2nd).315 (10th)
Slugging Percentage.406 (3rd).417 (1st)
Home Runs211 (3rd)226 (1st)
Stolen Base Percentage72.7 (11th)69.4 (15th)
BABIP.285 (9th).278 (15th)
2026 Regular Season

The White Sox led the AL in scoring in 2026, the Yankees 0.2 runs per game back. They ignored batting average, focusing on OBP and slugging percentage, finishing near the top of the league in both categories. They topped the walks leaderboard. Chicago seemed to find a market inefficiency in strikeouts. That landed them Munetaka Murakami. He struck out over 30% of the time, but produced a 2.9 fWAR. They also kept playing Colson Montgomery at shortstop, who struck out over 30% of the time. He only managed power, with a .206 ISO, but with great defense produced 2.7 fWAR.

We have yet to hit the ceiling for batter K rates. As long as they also produce power and draw some walks, there’s value to be found.

High walks and high power tend to be mature batter stats, but the White Sox offense ranked as the youngest in the AL weighted by playing time at Baseball Reference. This is an offense that is still developing.

The Astros produced a higher BA, but a lower OBP. They generated more power, but with fewer men on base, they tended to be solo shots. With the bases empty, the Astros hit 66% of their home runs, 54% for the White Sox. While the Astros put the ball in play more, their poor BABIP means a lot of those turned into outs.

Here is a comparison of the team pitching and defense:

Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks)White SoxAstros
Runs Allowed per Game4.44 (7th)4.73 (12th)
Earned Run Average4.12 (8th)4.45 (12th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP8.35 (11th)8.84 (4th)
Walks per 9 IP3.57 (9th)4.07 (15th)
Home Runs per 200 IP25.0 (8th)28.4 (13th)
Defensive Efficiency.702 (5th).708 (4th)
2026 Regular Season

Neither team distinguished themselves with their pitching. The White Sox did a better job of run prevention than the Astros. They did not embrace the strikeout on the pitching side, but the defense makes up for it by turning batted balls into outs. The Astros pitchers strikeout a lot of batters, but they also give up a ton of home runs and walks, and those are the strengths of the White Sox offense.

It strikes me that this might be the perfect match-up for Chicago. Don’t be surprised to see two or three high-scoring games as both offenses go deep. The White Sox put a few more men on, and that gives them a 53% chance of advancing to face Cleveland.

September 28, 2026

Wild Card Preview, Phillies Versus Braves

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The Phillies head to Atlanta for the early game Tuesday and Wednesday to kick off the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. The Braves got off to a great start, going 44-21 through June 6th, 50-47 the rest of the way. The Phillies got off to a terrible start, 9-19, prompting a change in managers. They went 79-55 the rest of the way to make the playoffs, but had a 9-14 finish to just get over the line.

Here is a comparison of the team offenses, with NL ranks:

Offensive Category (NL Rank)PhilliesBraves
Runs per Game4.40 (12th)4.58 (7th)
Batting Average.240 (12th).246 (7th)
On-Base Average.312 (11th).309 (13th)
Slugging Percentage.395 (12th).409 (5th)
Home Runs182 (9th)204 (4th)
Stolen Base Percentage84.7 (1st)78.3 (8th)
BABIP.282 (12th).286 (10th)
2026 Regular Season

Neither team owns an outstanding offense. Both do a poor job relative to the league of getting on base. The Phillies draw walks to reach their level, while the Braves are more hit oriented. There is a clear difference in slugging, however. The Phillies concentrate their power in two players, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. The Braves spread it over four hitters. That extra power allows Atlanta to move more runners home.

Note that the Phillies are really good at stealing bases, but it didn’t help their offensive rank much.

Next is a look at the Pitching and Defense:

Pitching & Defense (NL Ranks)PhilliesBraves
Runs Allowed per Game4.31 (5th)3.86 (3rd)
Earned Run Average4.04 (5th)3.63 (3rd)
Strikeouts per 9 IP9.87 (1st)8.45 (6th)
Walks per 9 IP3.03 (3rd)3.31 (6th)
Home Runs per 200 IP26.6 (11th)25.7 (9th)
Defensive Efficiency.678 (14th).712 (4rd)
2026 Regular Season

Pitching represents the strength for both teams. Note that only the Dodgers starts go as deep in games as the Phillies starters. In a short series, the Phillies might be much closer to the Braves in terms of pitching talent. The high K rate of the Phillies staff works well against the Braves offense that is hit heavy in OBP.

What hurts the Phillies pitching case, however, is the defense. The team is extremely poor at turning batted balls into outs. The Braves batters don’t strike out very much, so if they can make contact, the balls in play have a good change of finding holes. On the other side, the Braves defense does a fine job of recording outs.

Given the power profile of both the offense and pitchers, I suspect most of the runs in the series will be driven in with homers. Given the Braves are a bit better in that regard on both sides of the ball, I’ll give Atlanta a 55% shot at winning the series and advancing to the NLDS.

September 28, 2026

Players of the Month

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Brice Turang of the Brewers led the majors in OBP during the month of September with a .475 mark, helping Milwaukee to a 100 win season and the best record in the majors. He also slugged .602, with 12 of his 30 hits going for extra bases. Carter Jensen of the Royals topped the majors in slugging percentage with a .787 mark. Nineteen of his 27 hits went for extra bases, and he also sported an excellent .407 OBP.

Two players, however, make the top of both lists. Elly De La Cruz of the Reds posted a .348/.432/.723 slash line, while Mookie Betts of the Dodgers came in at .337/.438/.674. Betts produced one fewer hit but one more extra-base hit. Betts walked two more time, and struck out a lot less. The main difference came in the stolen base column, where Betts went one for two, while De La Cruz was a perfect six for six. It’s a tough call, but Elly De La Cruz gets the nod as the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for September 2026.

On the pitching side, Jared Jones of the Pirates allowed just three runs in 29 innings for a 0.93 ERA, all three coming in one of his five starts. He struck out 40 and walked four, without allowing a home run. His strikeout rate of 12.41 per 9 IP ranked fourth, and his walk rate ranked third. Freddy Peralta of the Rays allowed three runs in 28 innings, but his three true outcomes paled in comparison to Jones. Jared Jones wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for September 2026.

September 28, 2026

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the offense of the previous season through the same number of full weeks. With all 26 full weeks of the season done, MLB games in 2026 produced 8.96 runs per game compared to 8.89 runs per game in 2025, and increase of just 0.07 runs. That’s two years in a row MLB hit the sweet spot of 9.0 runs per game. The increase in runs was due to 0.04 more batters reach base per game by a hit, walk or hit by pitch, 23.6 on base in 2025, 24.0 on base in 2026. That was all due to walks. HR per game were down 0.03, BABIP Hits per game were down 0.08, but walks and hit by pitches were up 0.5. Note that strikeouts ended up pretty even, 16.73 in 2025, 16.76 in 2026.

The last week of the season produced 8.64 runs per game, consistent with the historical trend of the offense dropping the last two weeks of the season.

September 27, 2026

Best Batter Monday

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Alex Bregman of the Cubs seems to be completely recovered from the hit by pitch to his face as he goes four for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs in a 6-3 win over the Red Sox. That was good for the highest game score of the day, a 93. It also put him fifth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The 93 was the 17th game score of 90+ this season. Bregman also produced a 99 game score on August 12th, making him the only hitter this season with two 90s.

The injured Rafael Devers of the Giants still sits in first place. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres did not start and stayed in second place. Randy Arozarena of the Mariners went one for three with a double for third place in a 7-3 win over the Angels, who wind up losing 100 games. Pete Alonso of the Orioles finishes the regular season in fourth place after the game against the Yankees in The Bronx was rained out. Since it didn’t matter in standings, it will not be made up, and the Yankees get two extra days off due to the weather before hosting Boston Tuesday night in the AL Wild Card round.

September 27, 2026

September 27, 2026

September 27, 2026

Games of the Day

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There are four games that matter today, all starting at 3 PM EDT on the final day of the season.

The Rays send Nick Martinez against the Phillies, forced to use Zack Wheeler to try to earn a playoff slot. If the Phillies win or the Diamondbacks lose, then Philadelphia win the third wild card slot, otherwise the resulting tie goes to Arizona. With the next five days off, Martinez can pitch as much as he needs. He goes for his 16th win in what has been his best season in the majors. He allowed just 25 walks in 177 1/3 innings. Wheeler, even in a slightly short season for him, reached double digits in wins for the ninth season in his career. He still brings the heat, striking out 188 batters in 156 innings.

The Rangers play in the land of lakes as they send MacKenzie Gore against the Twins and Dean Kremer. Texas needs a win and an Astros loss to win the AL West. The change of scenery from Washington to the other Arlington did not make a difference. Gore will lead the AL with 34 starts, but his 4.59 ERA and 8-11 record comes as a disappointment. Kremer was good at limiting hits and walks, but allowed 17 homers in 83 1/3 innings, and was hammered with runners in scoring position.

The Diamondbacks need a win as they take on the Padres. Michael Soroka faces Randy Vasquez. Soroka’s 3.31 ERA ranks second among Arizona starters. He produced excellent three-true outcomes. Vazquez’s ERA is second among starters on the Padres, who’s rotation proved to be a disappointment.

Note that Gabriel Moreno, who leads Luis Arraez by one point for the NL Batting Title, can’t sit out the game. Arraez won’t play due to injury, but Moreno needs to help his team to a playoff spot.

Finally the Astros play the Athletics, with three of four possible outcomes giving them the AL West title. Peter Lambert faces Seth Johnson. Lambert’s strength comes from limiting power, holding opponents to a .358 slugging percentage this year. Johnson make his first start of the season and second of his career, serving as the opener. He allowed a ton of hits and walks in relief this season.

Enjoy!

September 27, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

All games are supposed to start at 3 PM EDT on the final day of the season, but due to weather concerns, the Orioles at the Yankees and the Mets at the Nationals start at 1 PM. Neither game figures in the final standings. The White Sox playoff slot as the third Wild Card is set, so despite being a good day for them to hit, don’t expect to see the regulars in the lineup.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.334, 0.715, 0.711 — Randal Grichuk batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.307, 0.711, 0.710 — Michael Harris II batting at Janson Junk.
  • 0.291, 0.696, 0.691 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.281, 0.695, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting at Seth Johnson.
  • 0.294, 0.690, 0.707 — Nico Hoerner batting at Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.310, 0.688, 0.681 — Chase Meidroth batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.288, 0.688, 0.688 — Drake Baldwin batting at Janson Junk.
  • 0.273, 0.686, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting at Seth Johnson.
  • 0.306, 0.683, 0.677 — Samuel Antonacci batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.272, 0.683, 0.681 — Yordan Alvarez batting at Seth Johnson.

The Cubs and Red Sox are playing in Tropicana Field, and it’s a good thing because the weather here in Boston remains nasty. Again, this game as no bearing on the playoffs at this point, so don’t expect to see a lot of regulars in the lineup.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.334, 0.715, 0.711 — Randal Grichuk batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.307, 0.711, 0.710 — Michael Harris II batting at Janson Junk.
  • 0.294, 0.690, 0.707 — Nico Hoerner batting at Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.281, 0.695, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting at Seth Johnson.
  • 0.273, 0.686, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting at Seth Johnson.
  • 0.291, 0.696, 0.691 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.288, 0.688, 0.688 — Drake Baldwin batting at Janson Junk.
  • 0.272, 0.683, 0.681 — Yordan Alvarez batting at Seth Johnson.
  • 0.310, 0.688, 0.681 — Chase Meidroth batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.306, 0.683, 0.677 — Samuel Antonacci batting vs. Kyle Freeland.

Grichuk tops all three lists. I removed Luis Arraez and Chandler Simpson from the lists since there is no chance they start on Sunday, even though they are not on the illjured list. Harris is the consensus double down pick.

Hope you had a lot of fun playing Beat the Streak this season!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 27, 2026

Best Batter Today

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The injured Rafael Devers of the Giants remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Even though his score is deteriorating daily, no one has stepped up to take his place. Pete Alonso of the Orioles ranks fourth, and did not play due to the weather in New York on Saturday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks second after drawing a walk in a 10-7 win over the Diamondbacks. The Padres own the top slot among the NL Wild Card teams and will host the Cubs in a rematch of the 1984 NLCS. Randy Arozarena of the Mariners ranks third as he went two for five with a double in an 8-4 win over the Angels. Mookie Betts of the Dodgers moved into the fifth slot as he posted a one for five with a home run in a 4-3 win over the Giants.

Jeremy Pena of the Astros produced the highest game score of the day, an 83. He went four for six with two home runs in a 13-2 win over the Athletics. His .477 slugging percentage matches his mark of 2025, but both is BA and OBP degraded. The Astros can clinch the AL West today with a win or a Rangers loss, so Houston is in the driver’s seat on the last day of the regular season.

September 27, 2026

September 26, 2026

September 26, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Rangers need a win to try to break the tie with the Astros and win the division. They send Nathan Eovaldi against the Twins and Bailey Ober. Five and a half hours later the Astros will know what they need to do as Hayden Wesneski faces the Athletics and Jack Perkins.

At 7 PM, the Guardians continue their series in Kansas City and the White Sox host the Rockies. Chicago is one game back but holds the tie breaker. The team that wins the division receives a bye, but the loser gets to face a division winner with a worse record.

Also at 7 PM, the Rays try to play spoiler to the Phillies, the Phillies have yet to announce a starter. The Diamondbacks are lurking, and they also have not named a starter as they face the Padres and Walker Buehler. Arizona can still catch the Phillies for the third wild card slot.

Enjoy!

September 26, 2026

The .500 Division Winner

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With both the Astros and Rangers losing on Friday night, .500 stands as the best record possible for the division winner. There is a good chance the top team finishes below .500.

I don’t like this. While no schedule that involves divisions prevents this from happening, the combination of many divisions with balanced schedules makes this all too likely. My preferred scheduling arrangement for a league is two divisions with six teams each, 18 games against division opponents, and twelve games against interdivision opponents. Even with that however, the NL East came very close to a .500 winner in 1973, and there were a number of years when the AL West saw most of their teams under .500.

I think one solution might be reorganizing the divisions every year based on winning percentage. Our two leagues are now relics of the past. There is no longer a league identity. Given how many teams have moved around divisions as well, I’m not sure anyone will miss the East, Central, and West designations.

Every year the divisions are realigned based on the previous season’s winning percentage. So next season, the Brewers, Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Yankees would make up the Willie Mays division, while the Royals, Giants, Athletics, Angels, and Rockies will make up the Mario Mendoza division.

I believe there are a number of advantages to this system:

  • More varied teams make the playoffs every year. One of the five worst teams would be guaranteed a playoff spot the next season. This should give those teams an incentive to win now, as even modest improvement might lead to a championship. Why should a team spend to improve if they can’t catch the Dodgers or Yankees? Now that only happens in some years.
  • The incentive to win should be the same in all divisions, since they should mostly have a small spread in their intrinsic winning percentages.
  • Division balance means it’s tough to gain a wild card simply because you’re playing lots of games against two bad teams (Rockies and Giants this year, for example).
  • Great teams won’t be out of the playoffs for long. The fifth place team from the Mays division might get put in the fourth ranked Mel Stottlemyre division and win there the next season.
  • Because the teams are evenly matched, there should be more close division races.
  • Rivalries still happen, and maybe fewer games between rivals makes those games more lucrative.
  • Teams do not necessarily need to spend more money to get better. Teams often keep good players in the minors to capture their full prime years. This system might get teams to bring players to the majors at a younger age.

The drawbacks:

  • There will be an incentive to tank on the edges to get a team into a worse division for the next season. This could be overcome by using a multi-year approach, or weaving Pythagorean win percentages into the model.
  • Scheduling would be tougher. Right now, the schedule comes out during the season, and this would need to wait until the regular season is over. Travel would be tougher as part of this.

This proposal makes the great teams earn a playoff spot every year and gives an incentive for poor teams to win more often.

September 26, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Both Simpson and Bateman are listed as day-to-day. Simpson was in a lot of pain last night after he fouled a pitch off his foot.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.323, 0.735, 0.757 — Chandler Simpson batting at Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.274, 0.705, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Griffin Jax.
  • 0.297, 0.699, 0.705 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.286, 0.697, 0.696 — Nick Gonzales batting at Justin Verlander.
  • 0.285, 0.695, 0.682 — Javier Sanoja batting vs. Brent Suter.
  • 0.284, 0.692, 0.676 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Brent Suter.
  • 0.275, 0.689, 0.688 — Yainer Diaz batting at Jackson Perkins.
  • 0.279, 0.689, 0.680 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.287, 0.685, 0.651 — Randal Grichuk batting vs. Jose Quintana.
  • 0.274, 0.684, 0.696 — Jake Mangum batting at Justin Verlander.
  • 0.276, 0.684, 0.679 — T.J. Rumfield batting at Davis Martin.
  • 0.276, 0.683, 0.669 — Josh Jung batting at Bailey Ober.
  • 0.279, 0.682, 0.660 — Jake McCarthy batting at Davis Martin.
  • 0.282, 0.682, 0.682 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Rhett Lowder.

Arraez and Jung are day to day as well.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.323, 0.735, 0.757 — Chandler Simpson batting at Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.274, 0.705, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Griffin Jax.
  • 0.297, 0.699, 0.705 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.286, 0.697, 0.696 — Nick Gonzales batting at Justin Verlander.
  • 0.274, 0.684, 0.696 — Jake Mangum batting at Justin Verlander.
  • 0.262, 0.679, 0.692 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.275, 0.689, 0.688 — Yainer Diaz batting at Jackson Perkins.
  • 0.282, 0.682, 0.682 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Rhett Lowder.
  • 0.285, 0.695, 0.682 — Javier Sanoja batting vs. Brent Suter.
  • 0.279, 0.689, 0.680 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.276, 0.684, 0.679 — T.J. Rumfield batting at Davis Martin.
  • 0.264, 0.676, 0.678 — Jeremy Pena batting at Jackson Perkins.
  • 0.284, 0.692, 0.676 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Brent Suter.

With both Simpson and Arraez hurting, Yandy Diaz and Nick Gonzales rate as the double down pair.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 26, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Pete Alonso of the Orioles hit two home runs in game one of the doubleheader against the Yankees to claim the lead in the AL home run race with 43. Overall, his four for eight with two walks and two home runs put him in fourth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings.

The injured Rafael Devers of the Giants remained a point ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres after a two for three with a double in an 11-4 Diamondbacks victory. With the Cubs losing two to the Red Sox on Friday and the Phillies falling to the Rays, the Diamondback are one game out of the third wild card slot. The Cubs hold the tiebreakers and have clinched a spot, but the Diamondbacks own the tie-breaker against the Phillies due to a better intradivision record.

Randy Arozarena of the Mariners went two for five with a triple in a 7-5 Angels win. One more win for LAnaheim, and they avoid a 100 loss season. Arozarena sits in third place. Elly De La Cruz of the Reds rounds out the top five.as he doubled and walks in a 6-5 Blue Jays win.

The best game score of the day belonged to Munetaka Murakami of the White Sox, a 79. He went three for four with two home runs in 6-1 win over the Rockies, the White Sox keeping pace with the Guardians in the race for the AL Central title and a first round bye. As his season ends, Murakami turned out to be a classic Ken Phelps hitter, with a .209 BA but a .351 OBP and a .483 slugging percentage. The White Sox did not eschew the K in 2026, as Colson Montgomery set a new K record with 224 so far, and Murakami ranks fifth with 193. Both hit over 30 home runs, and it seems the power was worth it to the White Sox.

Murakami BA is just 21.1% of his value. In the following diagrams, OBP is on the X axis and slugging is on the Y axis. The overall volume indicates a measure of value:

BAMunetaka Murakami

Montgomery is low also, at 30.4%.

‘BAColson Montgomery‘

September 26, 2026

September 25, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Cubs are scheduled to play a doubleheader against the Red Sox in Boston today with rain looming. If the Cubs sweep, at worst they will be tied with the Padres in the win column the Padres having a game in hand. We may be looking at a Monday game if the NL Wild Card order is not set by then.

The Rays take on the Phillies. The Rays are set for the best record in the AL, but the Phillies are fighting for fall games. Do the Rays rest, or does Tampa try to play spoiler?

The Guardians own a one-game lead over the White Sox, and Cleveland needs to maintain that to win the division as they take on the Royals. Meanwhile, the White Sox host the reeling Rockies. A tie for the division goes the way of the White Sox, so Chicago needs to keep winning and hope that the Royals pin a loss on the Guardians.

The Rangers face the Twins and the Astros take on the Athletics as the battle for the AL West comes to a close. The teams are tied, but the tie-breaker goes to Houston so the Astros need to keep winning for another division title. Also, a sweep by either team puts all the playoff teams over .500.

Finally, the Diamondbacks are still alive, holding the tie-breaker over the Phillies. They need to gain two games however. The wins need to come against the Padres, who are fighting for home field in the first round.

Enjoy!

September 25, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It’s a Chandler Simpson day. Will he play? He still has a shot at the AL batting average title, and a good weekend might bring him to that, especially if Yordan Alvarez falters. The Astros will have all their stars in the lineup, as they fight for the last AL playoff slot.

Note that the Orioles at the Yankees and the Cubs at the Red Sox are both doubleheaders today. There is a storm a brewing off the east coast that threatens to wash out both Saturday and Sunday. So the Yankees season may end today, since a game 162 does not change the standings. While the Cubs clinched a playoff slot, their standing in the wild card race is not set, so they may need a game 162. I saw some talk of flying the teams to a neutral site.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.308, 0.729, 0.753 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.274, 0.704, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Freddy Peralta.
  • 0.306, 0.700, 0.685 — Randal Grichuk batting vs. Tomoyuki Sugano.
  • 0.283, 0.693, 0.700 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.276, 0.688, 0.688 — Yainer Diaz batting at Jacob Lopez.
  • 0.275, 0.686, 0.679 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Casey Mize.
  • 0.279, 0.684, 0.679 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
  • 0.269, 0.681, 0.687 — Jeremy Pena batting at Jacob Lopez.
  • 0.275, 0.680, 0.666 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Brandon Young.
  • 0.278, 0.680, 0.660 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. David Peterson.

Arraez sprained his ankle last night, so he probably won’t play today.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.308, 0.729, 0.753 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.274, 0.704, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Freddy Peralta.
  • 0.283, 0.693, 0.700 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.276, 0.688, 0.688 — Yainer Diaz batting at Jacob Lopez.
  • 0.269, 0.681, 0.687 — Jeremy Pena batting at Jacob Lopez.
  • 0.306, 0.700, 0.685 — Randal Grichuk batting vs. Tomoyuki Sugano.
  • 0.275, 0.686, 0.679 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Casey Mize.
  • 0.279, 0.684, 0.679 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
  • 0.244, 0.647, 0.677 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. David Peterson.
  • 0.269, 0.679, 0.674 — Yordan Alvarez batting at Jacob Lopez.

For fun, you can select a Y. Diaz double down today. Yandy Diaz, however, is the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!